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Supply Chain by the Numbers
   
 

- Dec. 10, 2020

   
  Supply Chain by the Numbers for Dec. 10, 2020
   
 

US Restaurants Closing in Record Numbers; Retailers Pushing Up Christmas Order Deadlines; Chinese Exports to US Soar Despite Tariffs; MODEX 2022 Trade Show Almost Sells Out in One Day

   
 
 
 
 

100,000

That is how many restaurants have closed in the US since the start of the virus pandemic, or one out of every six establishments. That according to data this week from the National Restaurant Association. That in turn has led to as many as 3 million restaurant workers to lose their jobs, the association adds. Association analysis shows that the restaurant industry has lost $165 billion in revenue in March to July, and is on track to lose $240 billion in sales for the full year. This collapse of course has many ramifications. For example, suppliers to restaurants, from major food service companies to local farmers, also taking a big hit. Unfortunately, it is almost certain to get worse in the face of a spike in virus infections and a return of severe restrictions on restaurant operations – and as colder weather limits outdoor seating. In fact, the survey found that 40% of operators think it is unlikely their restaurant will still be in business six months from now if there are no additional relief packages from the federal government. For decades, if you needed a job almost always you could find something in a restaurant – that sadly is simply no longer true.

 

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12

That's how many days some US retailers are using as cut off times to be able to guarantee delivery by Christmas, meaning orders must be placed as early as Dec. 13. That's much earlier than most recent years, with 5-6 day windows or even less. The interesting driver of that is primarily the result of FedEx and UPS regulating how many parcels their customers can ship based on forecasts they made months ago. By doing that, the carriers are avoiding chaos from the now expected growth of as much as 40% in ecommerce orders this month versus 2019. According to ShipMatrix, UPS scored an on-time delivery rate of 96.9% in the third week of November – the most recent available statistics – and FedEx was on-time 96.6%. But of course that is only for parcels that actually are shipped – those parcels being metered by the carriers are not included of course in those numbers. Reports are that UPS and FedEx are even refusing to take additional shipments from retailers offering to pay above their contract rates. So some are getting creative out of necessity: Macy's, for example, is contracting with food delivery service DoorDash for same-day shipping general merchandise. Adding to the troubles: the parcel carriers may need to start shipping virus vaccines here at the top of peak season – and that will surely take priority.

 

 
 
 

21%

That was the rise in Chinese exports for November versus the same month in 2019, according to data this week from the country's government. While such data from Chinese officials is generally suspect, it this case it seems likely to be at minimum directionally accurate. What's more, exports to the US soared an amazing 46% in the month, China said. So much for the impact on tariffs on US import levels, though Chinese imports from the US were up 33%. But that level of US export growth was still well below the 46% seen in import growth into the US, meaning if accurate the US trade deficit in goods with China will rise again when the US Census Bureau releases its November estimates. China's overall trade surplus with the rest of the world widened to a record $75 billion in the month. Some observers note China exports were goosed by still high levels of shipments of personal protection equipment and other COVID-related goods, numbers which would be likely to fall if the various virus vaccines work.

 
 
 
 

350,800

That is the record and perhaps a bit surprising amount of floor space materials handling hardware, software and services firms of all sorts reserved for the MODEX 2022 trade show scheduled for March of that year. That after the space “draw” for the show that occurred this week, as usual almost a year and a half before the event itself. All told, 604 vendors reserved exhibit space, show organizer MHI said. MHI is a trade association for the materials handling industry. That booked space is in fact not much below the total available space of 400,000 square feet. SCDigest used the work " surprising" above just because of current trade show dynamics. MHI itself just announced this week that MODEX's sister show ProMat will virtual only in 2021. With practically every trade show forced to go digital or not held at all since the virus outbreak in March, some marketing experts are wondering whether these kinds of events will ever go back to pre-pandemic times. Materials handling and broader supply chain solution providers apparently don't see it that way, snapping up space while they can, hoping to reach the growing number of companies looking to automate processes one way or another, with much of that being driven of course by efulfillment.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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