The Smart Forecaster

 Pursuing best practices in demand planning,

forecasting and inventory optimization

Improve Forecast Accuracy, Eliminate Excess Inventory, & Maximize Service Levels

 

In this Video Dr. Thomas Willemain, co–Founder and SVP Research, defines and compares the most useful Forecasting Techniques: Exponential Smoothing, Single Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Method and Winter’s Method.  These videos explain the basic thinking under each technique as well as the math behind them, how they are used in practice and the tradeoff of each method.

Forecasting Techniques for a more profitable business
Leave a Comment

RECENT POSTS

The Cost of Spreadsheet Planning

The Cost of Spreadsheet Planning

Companies that depend on spreadsheets for demand planning, forecasting, and inventory management are often constrained by the spreadsheet’s inherent limitations. This post examines the drawbacks of traditional inventory management approaches caused by spreadsheets and their associated costs, contrasting these with the significant benefits gained from embracing state-of-the-art planning technologies.

Finding Your Spot on the Inventory Tradeoff Curve

Finding Your Spot on the Inventory Tradeoff Curve

This video blog holds essential insights for those working with the complexities of inventory management. The session focuses on striking the right balance within the inventory tradeoff curve, inviting viewers to understand the deep-seated importance of this equilibrium.

Why MRO Businesses Need Add-on Service Parts Planning & Inventory Software

Why MRO Businesses Need Add-on Service Parts Planning & Inventory Software

MRO organizations exist in a wide range of industries, including public transit, electrical utilities, wastewater, hydro power, aviation, and mining. To get their work done, MRO professionals use Enterprise Asset Management (EAM) and Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems. These systems are designed to do a lot of jobs. Given their features, cost, and extensive implementation requirements, there is an assumption that EAM and ERP systems can do it all. In this post, we summarize the need for add-on software that addresses specialized analytics for inventory optimization, forecasting, and service parts planning.

Recent Posts

  • Looking for Trouble in Your Inventory DataLooking for Trouble in Your Inventory Data
    In this video blog, the spotlight is on a critical aspect of inventory management: the analysis and interpretation of inventory data. The focus is specifically on a dataset from a public transit agency detailing spare parts for buses. […]
  • Smart Software Launches GrowSmart Extension in Collaboration with GrowSmart Software Launches GrowSmart Extension in Collaboration with Grow
    Smart Software, a leader in enterprise demand planning, consensus forecasting, and inventory optimization solutions, announces the release of the GrowSmart extension in Collaboration with Grow, an Epicor solution. […]
  • BAF Case Study SIOP planning Distribution CenterBig Ass Fans Turns to Smart Software as Demand Heats Up
    Big Ass Fans is the best-selling big fan manufacturer in the world, delivering comfort to spaces where comfort seems impossible. BAF had a problem: how to reliably plan production to meet demand. BAF was experiencing a gap between bookings forecasts vs. shipments, and this was impacting revenue and customer satisfaction BAF turned to Smart Software for help. […]
  • The Cost of Doing nothing with your inventory Planning SystemsThe Cost of Spreadsheet Planning
    Companies that depend on spreadsheets for demand planning, forecasting, and inventory management are often constrained by the spreadsheet’s inherent limitations. This post examines the drawbacks of traditional inventory management approaches caused by spreadsheets and their associated costs, contrasting these with the significant benefits gained from embracing state-of-the-art planning technologies. […]
  • Randomness can be an Ally in the Forecasting BattleCan Randomness be an Ally in the Forecasting Battle?
    When we try to understand the complex world of logistics, randomness plays a pivotal role. This introduces an interesting paradox: In a reality where precision and certainty are prized, could the unpredictable nature of supply and demand actually serve as a strategic ally? The quest for accurate forecasts is not just an academic exercise; it's a critical component of operational success across numerous industries. For demand planners who must anticipate product demand, the ramifications of getting it right—or wrong—are critical. Hence, recognizing and harnessing the power of randomness isn't merely a theoretical exercise; it’s a necessity for resilience and adaptability in an ever-changing environment. […]

    Inventory Optimization for Manufacturers, Distributors, and MRO

    • Why MRO Businesses Need Add-on Service Parts Planning & Inventory SoftwareWhy MRO Businesses Need Add-on Service Parts Planning & Inventory Software
      MRO organizations exist in a wide range of industries, including public transit, electrical utilities, wastewater, hydro power, aviation, and mining. To get their work done, MRO professionals use Enterprise Asset Management (EAM) and Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems. These systems are designed to do a lot of jobs. Given their features, cost, and extensive implementation requirements, there is an assumption that EAM and ERP systems can do it all. In this post, we summarize the need for add-on software that addresses specialized analytics for inventory optimization, forecasting, and service parts planning. […]
    • Spare-parts-demand-forecasting-a-different-perspective-for-planning-service-partsThe Forecast Matters, but Maybe Not the Way You Think
      True or false: The forecast doesn't matter to spare parts inventory management. At first glance, this statement seems obviously false. After all, forecasts are crucial for planning stock levels, right? It depends on what you mean by a “forecast”. If you mean an old-school single-number forecast (“demand for item CX218b will be 3 units next week and 6 units the week after”), then no. If you broaden the meaning of forecast to include a probability distribution taking account of uncertainties in both demand and supply, then yes. […]
    • Whyt MRO Businesses Should Care about Excess InventoryWhy MRO Businesses Should Care About Excess Inventory
      Do MRO companies genuinely prioritize reducing excess spare parts inventory? From an organizational standpoint, our experience suggests not necessarily. Boardroom discussions typically revolve around expanding fleets, acquiring new customers, meeting service level agreements (SLAs), modernizing infrastructure, and maximizing uptime. In industries where assets supported by spare parts cost hundreds of millions or generate significant revenue (e.g., mining or oil & gas), the value of the inventory just doesn’t raise any eyebrows, and organizations tend to overlook massive amounts of excessive inventory. […]
    • Top Differences between Inventory Planning for Finished Goods and for MRO and Spare PartsTop Differences Between Inventory Planning for Finished Goods and for MRO and Spare Parts
      In today’s competitive business landscape, companies are constantly seeking ways to improve their operational efficiency and drive increased revenue. Optimizing service parts management is an often-overlooked aspect that can have a significant financial impact. Companies can improve overall efficiency and generate significant financial returns by effectively managing spare parts inventory. This article will explore the economic implications of optimized service parts management and how investing in Inventory Optimization and Demand Planning Software can provide a competitive advantage. […]