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Supply Chain Performance Declined In the Last Decade. The Question is Why?

Supply Chain Shaman

Yes, companies held more inventory (measured in days of inventory) in 2019 than at the start of the 2007 recession. Commercial and operating teams in manufacturing organizations greater than 5B$ in annual revenue were more aligned in 2007, at the beginning of the recession, than in 2020, the start of the pandemic. Alignment Barriers.

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How We Stubbed Our Toe in The Evolution of S&OP

Supply Chain Shaman

When my flight canceled, I was en route to the annual AMR conference in Phoenix. Tight coupling of the supply chain forecast to the financial forecast will improve value. Industries carried on average 32 days more inventory in 2020 than in 2007. (I Why do we have 32 days more inventory by company in 2020 than in 2007?

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Lifting The Gray Curtain

Supply Chain Shaman

One of the goals of the conference was to challenge the audience to redefine work. Similarly, after the conference, I started working with a chemical company to formulate a supply chain strategy. I also forecast dismal retail performance for the holidays. Let’s look at the past to forecast the future: Phase 1.

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2020 Requires Big Wings and Feet

Supply Chain Shaman

Next year’s conference will be on September 8th-11th in Franklin, TN, south of Nashville, TN. The design of the conference includes tours of several modern warehouses and centers of excellence. The budget is not sufficient and is often a detrimental input for supply chain forecasting. Bias and error.

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Will the Downturn Signal an Upturn?

Supply Chain Shaman

As the markets plummet, it is time to remind ourselves that demand is not a forecast. Traditional forecasting approaches are not adequate in a time of market volatility. In the real world, companies operate with a Mean Absolute Forecast Error of 24-60%, and have a bias of 9-40%. I remember December 2007 like yesterday.

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Out of Africa

Supply Chain Shaman

At over 1,000 delegates, the conference is a large supply chain event. There are few global conferences that can boast this level of attendance. The conference was heavily dominated by third-party logistics firms, consultants and technology providers. Mobile penetration is forecasted to be 85% of the households in Afria by 2015.

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Is A Customer-Centric Strategy the Same as Demand-Driven? Outside-In?

Supply Chain Shaman

As we discussed this drawing the dialogue flowed in the conference room. A Demand-Driven Value Network as defined by AMR Research in 2007: A network that senses demand with minimal latency to drive a near real-time response to shape and translate demand. The sharing forecasts in supplier relationships is of little value.