As we enter 2024, the automotive industry stands at the cusp of significant transformations. From the rapid evolution of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to a radical shift in vehicle architecture, the industry is gearing up for groundbreaking developments. It faces a future filled with both challenges and opportunities. Here are five critical predictions expected to shape the global automotive landscape in 2024.
Prediction No. 1 – BEV Cost Parity and Growing Momentum in 2024: The Electric Surge
2024 is poised to be a landmark year for BEVs as cost parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles becomes a reality. With global sales of BEVs projected to reach 13.3 million units, accounting for 16.2% of global sales, the trajectory for BEVs is upward and now unstoppable. The combined forces of consumer awareness, favorable policy frameworks, and technological advancements drive this momentum. The decreasing cost differential between BEVs and ICE vehicles is a game-changer, making BEVs an increasingly attractive option. In addition, the OEM’s long-awaited expansion of the non-luxury BEV segment of the industry is set to democratize electric mobility, addressing key consumer price concerns and affordability that the market is now just starting to address. As the gap in pricing narrows, and with a surge in more affordable non-luxury BEV options, we are on the charging ahead with this ongoing electric revolution.
Conclusion: 2024 marks a turning point in BEV adoption, driven by cost parity, regulatory frameworks, and expanding non-luxury market segments.
Prediction No. 2 – The Continued Rise of Hybrid Vehicles: Bridging the Gap
While the ultimate goal is electrification, hybrid vehicles are emerging as the practical bridge in this transition. With their blend of traditional and electric propulsion, hybrids offer a comfortable middle ground for consumers and manufacturers alike. Hybrids provide a familiar alternative to consumers wary of fully electric systems, backed by an infrastructure more accommodating than that for BEVs. The growth in hybrid sales, from 5% to 8% in the US market, signifies their increasing acceptance. Hybrids are not just a stopgap but a strategic step towards full electrification as the industry awaits additional charging infrastructure over the next 4-5 years. The lower average transaction price for hybrids compared to ICEs and BEVs makes them an attractive economic choice. Models like the 2024 Prius, starting at about $28,000, offer affordable and efficient options, likely boosting hybrid sales in 2024. This trend is expected to gain momentum in 2024 and beyond as infrastructure for BEVs continues to develop.
Conclusion: Hybrids serve as a strategic and accessible bridge in the transition to electrification, with their popularity set to grow in 2024 and max out by 2029.
Prediction No. 3 – Centralized Zonal Architecture: The New Era of Automotive Design
The introduction of centralized zonal architecture signifies a paradigm shift in automotive design. This shift involves integrating multiple functions into centralized System-on-Chips (SoCs) and modules, enhancing vehicle performance with high-performance sensors and AI. As OEMs re-engineer these systems, traditional suppliers must adapt to this changing landscape, which will significantly reduce the number of components and could lead to a decrease in supplier system integration activities and opportunities. This could have as much of a dramatic impact as the shift from the ICE to BEVs for traditional suppliers. As engineering and software development increasingly move in-house to OEMs like GM, opportunities for traditional suppliers change drastically, necessitating innovation, collaboration, and dramatic changes in strategy.
Conclusion: The shift to zonal architecture heralds a new era in automotive technology, driving suppliers to innovate or risk obsolescence.
Prediction No. 4 – EV Start-up Consolidation: Navigating a Correction Phase
The automotive industry is currently experiencing an Auto Tech correction. This trend became particularly evident in late 2022 and 2023, marked by a series of bankruptcies and significant losses in market capitalization by countless LiDAR suppliers and Robo-Taxi companies. This trend is expected to continue into 2024, impacting BEV start-ups. One notable example from 2023 is Lordstown Motors, which filed for bankruptcy protection in June, underscoring the financial vulnerabilities within the sector. With companies like Rivian Automotive, Polestar Automotive, Lucid Group, and Fisker, it is safe to anticipate further bankruptcies.
This ongoing correction is primarily attributed to the immense capital required to develop and manufacture electric vehicles and the intense competition from established automotive giants aggressively pivoting towards electrification. The high research, development, and production costs, alongside challenges in scaling up and navigating a complex supply chain, are significant hurdles for these start-ups.
The broader economic environment exacerbates the situation, including fluctuating investor sentiments and tightening financial markets. As these start-ups burn through cash to maintain operations and strive for market relevance, their financial resilience is being severely tested.
Conclusion: The BEV start-up landscape in 2024 will likely see further consolidation, with only financially resilient and strategically adept companies surviving.
Prediction No. 5 – Continued Supply Chain Disruptions: The Strategic Shift
The Biden administration’s restriction on the sale of advanced semiconductor technologies to China and on US investments in Chinese entities is set to reshape the industry’s approach to sourcing and collaboration. This comes at a time when the automotive sector heavily relies on these technologies to develop BEVs, autonomous driving systems, and connected car functionalities. This development necessitates new product development strategies, diversified sourcing, increased domestic manufacturing and collaborative innovations.
Expect more innovative collaborations like the $11 billion collaboration involving TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, and NXP in Europe, which may become a blueprint for future strategic investments. These partnerships can counteract the restrictions and ensure a steady supply of critical components.
The future challenge lies in navigating the geopolitical landscape while maintaining the momentum toward electrification and technological advancement. How well companies adapt to these changes, diversify their supply sources, and invest in new collaborations will define their success in this evolving landscape.
Conclusion: The automotive supply chain in 2024 will be characterized by adaptation and strategic realignments, which are pivotal for sustaining industry growth amidst geopolitical challenges.
Looking Ahead
It’s clear that the automotive industry is poised for significant change in 2024. These five predictions highlight the quickly evolving risks and challenges and underscore the immense opportunities for growth and the need for innovation. Embracing these changes, fostering collaboration, and driving technological advancement will be crucial for key stakeholders in navigating the ever-evolving automotive landscape successfully.
