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Supply
Chain by the Numbers |
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- Dec. 29, 2022
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Inflation still Hot in Many Product Categories; US Manufacturing Output Slump in November; Holiday Spend Flat when Factoring Inflation; ATA Freight Index Fell agan in November |
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12% |
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That was the average rise in food prices at grocery store in November, according to numbers released this week by the Labor Department. That sharp rise compared to an overall jump of 7.1% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the month, both numbers indicating inflation is far from tamed. But price changes of course varied widely product category. The price of butter, for example, was up almost 50% versus 2021, while the cost of flour was up nearly 25%. But restaurants must be eating some of the soaring costs of food (pun intended) themselves, as the cost for sit down meals was up 9% in November. The cost of a new car rose 8% year-over-year, while a trip to the repair shop jumped 15% in the month. Did the price of anything fall in November? Here and there. The price for televisions fell 17%, continuing a trend seen since March. |
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| That was the level of US manufacturing output for November, based on the index published each month by the Federal Reserve Bank. That was down from a level of 102.2 seen in October, and ends a four-month run of monthly gains, and is consistent with other signs of an economic slowdown. The November index level was up a modest 1.2% in 2021. However, at 101.6, it also means the index is up just 1.6% from the baseline year of 2017 (index = 100) now five years later, and is far from the all-time high of about 108 seen in late 2007. |
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2.5% |
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That was the drop in the Freight Tonnage Index for November, as released last week by the American Trucking Associations. It follows a dropped of 1.2 % in October, and is another sign of US economic contraction. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that “The decreases match anecdotal reports of a soft fall freight season as well as a slowing goods-economy generally. Housing-related freight is particularly weak.” Year-to-date through November, compared with the same period in 2021, tonnage was up 3.7%. Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 72.2% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. |
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That was the rise retail sales during the holiday season that runs from Nov. 1 to Christmas Eve, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks sales across all payment types. The 7.6% increase marked a slower pace than the 8.5% increase in 2021, and is about equal to the rates of inflation during the period, meaning unit sales must have been about flat. On-line sales grew 10.6% compared to the same period last year, the preliminary insights show. This holiday season, ecommerce made up 21.6% of total retail sales, up from 20.9% in 2021 and 20.6% in 2020, Mastercard says. However, Dept. Store sales rose just 1.0%. Black Friday retained its title as the top spending day of the 2022 holiday season, up 12% year-over-year. Apparel sales rose 4.4%, while electronics fell 5.3%, about the same as jewelry, down 5.4%. Restaurant sales jumped 15%.
