Your day of work is done, and it’s time to head home. But, instead of heading to the parking garage or trying to hail down a taxi in downtown rush hour, you step out to the curb, and your fully-autonomous, self-driving robotaxi that you hailed from your phone is awaiting your arrival. There are no drivers in the car, not even a steering wheel. You enjoy your quiet commute and use the time to make a few phone calls, scroll through your phone and rest.
This is the future of transportation—but when will it arrive?
If you were to ask this question even a few years ago, the answer would be now. However, most metropolitan cities are still relying on manually-operated vehicles to get from point A to B. So, what has kept these big-name and promising tech companies from following through on their word?
When we look at the delays in robotaxi developments, there are essentially three main causes—engineering, electrification and chip shortages.
The Engineering Challenges
The idea of robotaxis quickly spread about a decade ago, when NuTonomy and Cruise first began testing their robotaxis on the road. Since then, the industry has made incredible technological advancements, but companies are now finding it difficult to solve some crucial engineering problems just short of the finish line.
One of those problems is programming. Driving in controlled conditions is much different than driving in the real world. There are an infinite number of possibilities that can happen on the road, from various weather patterns and unpredictable pedestrians, to a building toppling over or a piano falling from the window. It may be rare, but it can happen and vehicles will need to know how to respond to it.
One of the best examples of this is the infamous story of one of Google’s Waymo cars freezing at the sight of a woman in an electric wheelchair chasing a duck around the intersection with a broom—it wasn’t prepared for that. There was no programming on how to respond to that particular situation. So, it stopped and waited for the environment to return to “normal” before resuming operations.
Of course, anticipating every possible scenario is impossible, and waiting for weird things to stop happening isn’t an option either. Instead, the vehicle’s technology must reach a level of sophistication where it can encounter a completely new scenario and be able to quickly decide how to react to it. Essentially, it needs to act like a human brain, connecting various information and previous encounters and using that knowledge to respond to new situations.
Engineers are still working to develop a system capable of such complexity, which will be key to unlocking mass distribution of public-use robotaxis.
Competing Priorities
Engineering isn’t the only thing standing in the way of hailing a driverless cab—the pandemic-induced chip shortage and increasing legislative pressure for electrification have also put a hold on many of these autonomy programs.
Over the last few years, we have seen many of the world’s largest economies put more aggressive timelines and mandates in place in an effort to phase out the internal combustion engine (ICE). Because of this, automotive makers have been forced to prioritize electrification over other programs in order to comply with the quickly approaching timelines. And paired with the budget cuts from the pandemic, most budgets reserved for robotaxi projects were moved to electrification.
Even as numbers bounce back and companies can fund their self-driving taxi programs again, the development of the technology is up against more competition.
The global chip shortage has created fierce competition within the automotive and technology sector, and production lines across the industry have been halted due to a lack of semiconductors. For robotaxis, which is still in a low-volume production state, competing against other companies and projects with high-volume, high-production is nearly impossible. So even with the money to back development, most engineering teams are unable to obtain the chips they need to move forward with even early stage prototypes.
Preparing for the Robotaxi
Despite the setbacks of robotaxis, some companies are still making promising strides—and all are hoping to be among the “first” to deploy driverless robotaxi services to the public on a massive scale. I believe that by the second half of the decade, more of us will have the opportunity of hailing a ride home from a driverless taxi or shuttle.
From suppliers to start-ups, automotive companies who want to take advantage of the disruptive force should keep an eye on the key players in the robotaxi space over the next several years. The key to obtaining a competitive advantage is identifying who the winners will be in the market and finding a way to align your company with them. Those who secure a partnership with a winning robotaxi developer or position themselves as a critical component within their supply chain will benefit massively and have incredible opportunities for growth and wealth.
Some of the top contenders to look at in the driverless taxi space include:
- Cruise – Financially backed by GM, Honda, and Microsoft, Cruise has been testing its autonomous technology since 2016. As of this February, it has also launched public taxi services within specific areas of San Francisco.
- Tesla – Known for its innovative automotive technology, Tesla is working on an interesting business model called the “Tesla Network,” which will provide an exclusive robotaxi experience and even allow private Tesla owners to “taxi out” their cars when not in use.
- Waymo – Belonging to the tech mogul Google, Waymo has been offering the public driverless lifts within certain Phoenix neighborhoods since October 2020 and has now opened selective access to their robotaxis in San Francisco.
- Zoox – Originally slated for deployment in 2022, this automotive-tech start-up was recently acquired by Amazon, which is now providing a deadline of 2025.
- Argo AI – In partnership with Ford, VW, and Lyft, Argo has plans to begin rolling out their robotaxi to several metropolitan areas over the next year, including Miami, Austin and Texas.
Once robotaxis hit the market, they will have the power to completely change the way we think about public transportation and vehicle ownership. Automotive suppliers, tech start-ups, and investors should begin looking for ways to become a part of this new ecosystem. Those who choose to focus only on the consistent volumes of GM, Ford, and Chrysler, will miss out on the massive opportunities that come with being a development partner to an industry disruptor.
