New research from the University of Michigan and Carnegie Mellon University finds more than 90% of long haul truck driver jobs (trips greater than 150 miles) could be replaced with automous trucks, but notes there are still major barriers to widespread deployment of robot fright haulers.
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| SCDigest notes that if the total number of drivers jobs is not significantly reduced, it would seem difficult to find the ROI for the investment in autonomous trucks. |
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“Our results suggest that the impacts of automation may not happen all at once. Ifautomation is restricted to Sun Belt states (including Florida, Texas and Arizona) - because the technology may not initially work well in rough weather - about 10% of the operator hours will be affected,” said study co-author Parth Vaishnav, assistant professor of sustainable systems at the University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability.
In total, at the most optimistic scenario for robot truck adoption, the industry could se a 94% loss of driver jobs that translates to more than 500,000 drivers impacted. Tens of thousands of truck stop jobs would also likely be effected as well, the researchers say.
The study was published on-line March 15 in the journal Humanities and Social Sciences Communications.
The researchers analyzed transportation data from the 2017 Commodity Flow Survey, which is produced by the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, US Census Bureau and US Department of Commerce. The goal was to collect information on trucking shipments and the operator hours on the job.
They then overlaid that data on different scenarios for rolling out autonomous truck technology. Those scenarios were:
• Deployment only in southern, sunny states
• Deployment only in spring and summer months (April 1 to Sept. 30)
• Deployment only for journeys more than 500 miles
• Deployment across the United States.
The research found that up to 94% of human driver hours may be impacted if automated trucking technology improves to operate in all weather conditions across the continental United States.
However, the research assumed use of an operating model in which the robot trucks only handle the highway portion of each haul, with human drivers navigating the much trickier local moves from the freight origin to the highway, and from the highway to the destination.
As shown in the graphic below from the report, this would involve development of transfer stations or ports where loads are transferred from human to the autonomous trucks and the reverse near the trip’s end.
Source: Aniruddh Mohan & Parth Vaishnav
Some truck industry observers have estimated there would be a surge in these local driver jobs to support the load transfers that would significantly compensate for the loss of drivers on the highway legs of the trips. But these researches are not optimistic on that front.
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“We found that an increase in short-haul operation is unlikely to compensate for the loss in long-haul operator-hours, despite public claims to this effect by the developers of the technology,” Vaishnav said. “As a result of these conflicting claims, as well as the uncertainty over the technology itself and its limitations, there is little clarity on how automated trucking will be deployed and its economic and political ramifications, such as the impact on the long-haul trucking labor market. We hope to help resolve these controversies.”
SCDigest notes that if the total number of drivers jobs is not significantly reduced, it would seem difficult to find the ROI for the investment in autonomous trucks.
The researchers also conducted interviews with trucking industry stakeholders, including tractor-trailer operators, to determine the feasibility of automated trucking deployment.
Almost everyone, including drivers, agree the long haul portion of the moves are ripe for autonomous truck automation, the research found.
But barriers to robot trucks taking over remain. In addition to need for improved safety in poor weather conditions, autonomous truck makers and carriers will face many regulatory hurdles, and a massive transfer station infrastructure will need to be built.
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