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The Forecasting Accuracy Bugaboo

Logistics Viewpoints

When it comes to running a company, when things break down executives have traditionally said “we need to improve our forecasting!” Would better forecasting accuracy be a good thing? Unfortunately, most companies cannot, and will never be able to, consistently rely on highly accurate forecasts. Absolutely!

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Just Jump

Supply Chain Shaman

In my first classes, I taught the group how to speak the language of demand—forecastability, Forecast Value Added (FVA), backcasting, demand and market latency, and market drivers. 40-50% of items are not forecastable at an item/location level. Lack of aligned metrics. Lack of executive buy-in. The So What?

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Demand Forecasting in the new normal

SYSPRO Smarter ERP

Manufactures are continuously faced with the challenge of forecasting how much (raw material) to purchase and how much (finished goods) to produce. To manage this delicate balance of demand and supply, manufacturers often use statistical forecasting techniques to predict future demand by looking at historical sales data.

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What Does Good Look Like S&OP?

Supply Chain Shaman

Clear operating strategy and definition of supply chain excellence across plan, source, make and deliver. Most companies buy decision support technology, but do not redefine work to improve decisions. A shift from functional metrics to a balanced scorecard. The focus on functional metrics sub-optimizes balance sheet results.

S&OP 321
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The Forecasting Conundrum

Logility

I have heard a number of supply chain professionals proclaim that their companies should stop forecasting product demand due to poor forecast accuracy. However, what is often overlooked is that moving to a pull strategy does not eliminate the need for a forecast. It’s the old Push – Pull argument. Financial Impact.

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Supply Chain Performance Declined In the Last Decade. The Question is Why?

Supply Chain Shaman

The myopic focus on IT standardization resulted in the purchase of technology, but not value delivery. This included one-number forecasting, Integrated Business Planning (with tight integration to the budget), labor arbitrage strategies (chasing low-cost labor with extended supply chains), and tax-efficient supply chain strategies.

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Holding Ourselves Accountable for Business Results

Supply Chain Shaman

Implementation of Sales Forecasting. The focus on sales forecasting started shortly after Y2k. Few companies measured the impact on error and bias through the rigor of Forecast Value Added (FVA) analysis. While the input from sales on market trends is invaluable, sales should never be asked to forecast. The reason?