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Calibration and Sharpness: The Two Independent Aspects of Forecast Quality

BlueYonder

What Is a Good Forecast? Forecasts are like friends: Trust is the most important factor (you don’t ever want your friends to lie to you), but among your trustable friends, you prefer meeting those that tell you the most interesting stories. We want forecasts to be “good,” “accurate,” and “precise.” But what do we mean by that?

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Supply Chain Performance Declined In the Last Decade. The Question is Why?

Supply Chain Shaman

Yes, companies held more inventory (measured in days of inventory) in 2019 than at the start of the 2007 recession. Commercial and operating teams in manufacturing organizations greater than 5B$ in annual revenue were more aligned in 2007, at the beginning of the recession, than in 2020, the start of the pandemic. Alignment Barriers.

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How We Stubbed Our Toe in The Evolution of S&OP

Supply Chain Shaman

Tight coupling of the supply chain forecast to the financial forecast will improve value. Demand latency is two-eight weeks delayed from consumption purchase to translate to an order. Industries carried on average 32 days more inventory in 2020 than in 2007. (I If you want to know future sales ask sales. Measure it.

S&OP 195
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Lifting The Gray Curtain

Supply Chain Shaman

As Allyson presented her story of working for multiple consumer products companies, with very advanced technologies (demand sensing, advanced automation of forecasting, data lakes and descriptive analytics), she spoke of why at the end of the day, the most important technology that she uses is Excel. Lockdowns and Disbelief.

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My Take: E2open Buys Terra Technology

Supply Chain Shaman

As an analyst in the supply chain market for 15 years, I have written many articles on best-of-breed technology companies purchased by a larger company. The initial software product release name was Real-Time Forecasting. DS replaced rules-based forecast consumption with better math (statistics and pattern recognition).

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2020 Requires Big Wings and Feet

Supply Chain Shaman

The focus is on the role of supply chain finance in driving supply chain excellence. The design of the conference includes tours of several modern warehouses and centers of excellence. The budget is not sufficient and is often a detrimental input for supply chain forecasting. The supply chain forecast is a rolling forecast.

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VTech: A Story of a Supply Chain Leader

Supply Chain Shaman

VTech drove significant improvement in operating margin through the recession of 2007-2009 and then drove improvement in both inventory margin and operating margin for the period of 2010-2012 with some regression in the period of 2013-2015. The ATT forecasting process at that time was best described as a séance. The answer was simple.