Simplifying Probabilistic Forecasting

ToolsGroup

In episode nine of Be Ready for Anything, supply chain expert Stefan de Kok breaks down the basics of probabilistic forecasting. I’m your host, Mary Vasile, and today I’m delighted to welcome Stefan de Kok who is going to shed some light on probabilistic forecasting.

Causal Forecasting Brings Precision to your Forecasting

Logility

Causal f orecasting shines a light on , and isolates, actual demand signals from market “chatter,” thus improving forecast quality. What Exactly Is Causal Forecasting? . First, what it’s not is a replacement for demand forecasting.

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Probabilistic Planning and Forecasting Demystified

ToolsGroup

I have been blogging and advocating for the past 15 years on probabilistic approaches to planning and forecasting, and am happy to see in the last few years it has finally started gaining traction and attention. Time is horizontal, forecast quantity vertical.

Get Started Using Machine Learning for New Product Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Adding to this already uphill battle, we don’t have trustworthy new product forecasting methods because forecasting new products with no sales data is very hit-and-miss. Machine learning (ML) provides an effective weapon for your new product forecasting arsenal.

5 Perceptions on Demand Forecasting and How it's Changing

Speaker: Brian Dooley, Director SC Navigator, AIMMS

It’s no secret that demand is getting more difficult to predict. Is your demand forecasting process evolving with the times? How does your process stack up against others? Are you satisfied with your level of forecast accuracy? This webinar shares research findings from a recent survey among supply chain planning professionals to help you answer these questions.

Melitta: Collaborating for an Improved Forecasting Process

ToolsGroup

Melitta Sales Europe (MSE) embarked on an initiative to revamp existing planning and forecasting processes to increase efficiency and sustainability. The tool also needed to accommodate configurable workflows and automatically detect demand exceptions or outliers.

Rail Roundup: Tech tools to locate railcars, forecast port volumes

The Supply Chain Journal

Here are two initiatives announced in July: Nexxiot and TransRail Innovation Group to roll out railcar locator technology in North America. Nexxiot is a supply chain data analytics firm and TRIG produces technology hardware for rail freight operators.

Meet Demands For Supermarkets With AI-Driven Demand Forecasting

ThroughPut

When demand can be anticipated with accuracy, it can be delivered efficiently with demand forecasting techniques. . Therefore, it is essential to switch to a supply chain model that acts on the forecasted demand to cut down wastages, enhance viability and eliminate bottlenecks.

Probabilistic Forecasting - a Primer

ToolsGroup

An experienced gambler might hedge their bet on multiple outcomes, rather than just the most likely "single number forecast". At ToolsGroup we have been big advocates of probabilistic forecasting (sometimes also known as stochastic forecasting). Understanding and employing this relatively simple principle can take your forecasting and supply chain planning from ‘good to great’. In this case, forecasting 100 units is a pretty safe bet.

For Distributors, Mitigating Supply Uncertainty Begins with a Better Forecast

ToolsGroup

Accurate forecasting of uncertain demand. Demand modeling systems look at the specific factors driving demand at a granular and daily level for individual SKU-Locations. It goes beyond the “demand forecast number” to the probability of demand in any given time period.

4 Reasons to Break Up With Excel and Move to Digital Supply Chain Planning

Trust your supply chain forecasts: adopt a predictive intelligence platform to outperform your supply chain goals, overcome challenges of spreadsheet-based planning, reduce risks, enhance customer satisfaction, and improve the bottom line.

Machine Learning and AI: Profiling Demand History – A Wiser Forecasting

Arkieva

In the simple version of supply chain management (SCM) the goal for demand forecasting in the tactical decision tier is prediction accuracy. Machine Learning and AI: Profiling Demand History – A Wiser Forecasting was first posted on August 5, 2020 at 8:11 am. ©2017

Inventory Forecasting Explained: The 2022 Guide

Unleashed

A crystal ball sometimes wouldn’t go amiss in inventory forecasting. But in the absence of a magical tool, your best bet is to manage your stock by using industry techniques and technology. Techniques for 2021 What is inventory forecasting?

Turn a Good Demand Forecast into the Optimum Inventory Plan

ToolsGroup

How Do You Turn a Good Demand Forecast into the Optimum Inventory Plan? Your customers don’t care if you have a great demand forecast. How do you turn a good forecast into a great inventory plan? About 15 years ago, many forecasting solutions turned to multi-echelon optimization.

Using Technology to build Sustainable Supply Chains

The Logistics & Supply Chain Management Society

Technology plays a key role in helping companies manage supply chain risk and underpins processes that improve sustainability. But newer technologies, like blockchain, are becoming an increasingly popular method for verification and helping to speed up processes.

Improve Forecast Quality and Reliability with Value-add Forecasting (Part 1)

Logility

The ability to effectively forecast demand is essential for supply chain management decisions. In fact, demand forecasts are used throughout the supply chain including supply chain design, purchasing, operations, inventory, and sales and marketing. value-add forecasting today.

Dreaming about accurate forecasts?

DELMIA Quintiq

There is a saying among forecast users: “ If you forecast, you may be wrong; but you will always be wrong if you do not forecast.”. But how much faith are companies willing to place in inaccurate forecasts? Many companies use demand forecasts that are based solely on historical data. However, these forecasts are less effective in a volatile global market facing sociopolitical challenges, such as trade wars and Brexit.

Overcoming Production Challenges Through the Use of MES Software

IQMS

Real-time production and process monitoring data is the life blood that makes end-to-end visibility and control possible and is an integral part of MES software. . The more complex the production process the more important it is to have ERP and MES systems sharing the same data.

A Primer on Probabilistic Forecasting

The Smart Software

If you keep up with the news about supply chain analytics, you are more frequently encountering the phrase “probabilistic forecasting.” Probabilistic forecasts have the ability to simulate future values that aren’t anchored to the past.

Logistics Technology Market Forecasting Under Uncertainty

Logistics Viewpoints

The current coronavirus outbreak is an example of an economic shock that elevates uncertainty and complicates forecasting. The post Logistics Technology Market Forecasting Under Uncertainty appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints. Statistics business forecasting coronavirus

2021 Logistics Outlook: Truckload Freight Market Forecast

GlobalTranz

The volatility of 2020 and the uncertainties looming into 2021 make it difficult to forecast planning and budgets based on historical data. Those unexpected surges meant forecasts were worth as much as the paper they were printed on.

Calculating Forecast Accuracy & Forecast Error

EazyStock

The Importance of Demand Forecasting Accuracy. In supply chain management it’s important to be able to measure the accuracy of your demand forecasts. Inaccurate demand forecasting can lead to the accumulation of excess stock or the reverse: issues with product availability. Ensuring demand forecasting accuracy should be a key responsibility for any conscientious inventory planner. What is Forecast Error? Forecast Accuracy/Forecast Error Calculations.

What’s Your Forecast Accuracy Target for 2017?

ToolsGroup

In 2016, it seemed as if everyone in supply chain was looking to improve their forecasting performance. Companies sought to implement (or re-implement) planning technology solutions, tune and optimize methodologies towards tighter variances, and integrate more accurate information into their planning processes. How much can you realistically expect to improve your forecast accuracy each year? Forecasting Demand and Analytics

What’s Your Forecast Accuracy Target for 2019?

ToolsGroup

Editor’s Note: Two years ago we posted a blog about how to set an annual forecast accuracy target and it was one of our most popular topics. Many companies have already started their 2019 planning and budgeting cycles, so if you are in charge of demand forecasting for your company, it’s about time to thinking about your organization's 2019 goals. It seems as if everyone is looking to improve their forecasting performance. Forecasting Demand and Analytics

The Secret to Rapid Digitisation: A Dual Platform Strategy

The Logistics & Supply Chain Management Society

One of the industry’s biggest concerns is how to digitise and transform quickly, without starting from scratch and having to throw away your enormous investment in traditional systems. Eliminate the huge costs associated with maintaining and upgrading legacy systems.

Four Steps to Better Demand Forecasting

Logility

Forecasting is an “inexact science” that relies on the data available to you, the math you use, and how you implement the forecast. There are libraries full of algorithms that are relatively easy to implement in software, but the math is only as good as the data it’s applied to.

How Does Demand Sensing Differ from Forecasting for Demand Planning?

Logility

For today’s supply chain planner, the art and especially the science of forecasting demand have evolved. Traditionally, forecasting models were based on time series techniques that create a forecast based on prior sales history. The limitations of time-series forecasting.

Meet The New Normal With 5 Demand Planning & Forecasting Methods

ThroughPut

Thriving In ‘The New Normal’ With 5 Demand Planning & Forecasting Methods. Businesses around the world are pondering upon these questions and each of them leads to a simple answer – effective supply chain demand planning and forecasting. External macro forecasting method.

What Technology are Teams Using to Support Their Demand Forecasting Process?

AIMMS

Part II in our series on assessing your Demand Forecasting process . In Part I of this series , we looked at supply chain professionals’ perception of forecast accuracy and how they see their forecast evolving in the future. With supply chain complexity on the rise, can new technologies help to improve forecast accuracy and achieve benefits like an optimized inventory and better customer service? The use of technology for demand forecasting is widespread .

The Value Realization Imperative: Optimizing the Value of SaaS Investments

BlueYonder

Understanding the value realized from investments in SaaS platform solutions is a strategic imperative in today’s economy. Standard metrics and KPIs like OTIF, forecast accuracy, and cost per shipment are usually the “quick hits” included in supply chain dashboards.

Promotion Forecasting

Cognira

Brochure: Promotion Forecasting. With decades of retail and data science experience, intelligent retail forecasting is Cognira’s core expertise. Our highly accurate, quality omnichannel forecasts represent true customer demand – not just sales history.

How Not to use Machine Learning for Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Eight years ago ToolsGroup was one of the first supply chain planning software vendors to employ machine learning to improve demand forecasting. When we first began employing this new technology, it wasn’t on anyone’s radar. Even in 2014 when Gartner wrote a case study about Danone using our machine learning to help forecast promotions, it was barely a blip on the horizon. Statistical forecasting approaches have others.

The Top Five Benefits of Using Machine Learning for Demand Forecasting

Logility

Machine Learning for demand forecasting has matured to a level of accuracy, transparency and replicability that translates into transformative results, including in these five areas: Accuracy, transparency, thoroughness of analytical options and results.

Configuring Your Demand Planning Software for Maximum Value

CHAINalytics

A demand planning application should generate value that goes beyond statistical forecasts. Sometimes this is easier said than done since it requires thoughtful system configuration and shared data insights.

Demand Planning and Forecasting through Predictive Planning

Prophetic Technology

They see the importance of getting Demand Planning software to suit their requirements fully. supply chain planning forecasting