Probabilistic Forecasting - a Primer

ToolsGroup

An experienced gambler might hedge their bet on multiple outcomes, rather than just the most likely "single number forecast". At ToolsGroup we have been big advocates of probabilistic forecasting (sometimes also known as stochastic forecasting).

How to Forecast Demand for New Products

Arkieva

However, a new product launch poses a totally new challenge – new product forecasting. How to Forecast Demand for New Products was first posted on January 23, 2019 at 2:24 pm. ©2017 Organizations need to regularly upgrade their products and launch new products to stay competitive and grow their businesses. ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only.

Probabilistic Forecasting: Right Fit for Your Business?

Supply Chain Shaman

A Closer Look at Forecasting. Traditionally companies forecast using history (shipments or orders) and applying linear regression to understand the patterns of historical demand using these to estimate future requirements in a time-series format. Understanding Probabilistic Forecasting.

Selecting the Appropriate Types Forecasting Methods

Arkieva

Selecting the right forecasting methods can be highly critical in how accurate your forecasts are. Unfortunately, there isn’t a golden ticket to forecasting which can essentially ensure accuracy. While the best-fit forecasting method is dependent on a business’ specific situation, understanding the types of forecasting methods can aid in your decision-making. Selecting the Appropriate Types Forecasting Methods was first posted on November 27, 2018 at 8:29 am. ©2017

Machine Learning: A Quantum Leap in Forecast Accuracy for the Modern Supply Chain

Whether you realize it or not, Machine Learning is having a profound impact on your everyday life

Common Forecasting Myths Debunked – Part 1 – One Forecast is Enough

Logility

This is the first of a series of four posts that will explore common forecasting myths. In supply chain the impact of a single error can quickly derail an entire forecast. Many companies believe that once a forecast is created success will follow throughout the product life cycle.

Why probabilistic forecasting is better for inventory optimization

ToolsGroup

Last month we published a primer on probabilistic forecasting , an alternative to deterministic or ‘single number’ forecasting. Spreadsheets and legacy suites like SAP APO produce top-down aggregated forecasts using a deterministic approach.

Sales Forecasting Unchecked – A Supply Chain Nightmare!

Supply Chain Game Changer

The Planning and Budget cycle within most companies must start with a forecast of future sales and revenue. The Sales and Marketing team is usually responsible for pulling that forecast together. What Happens When Forecasts Are Wrong? Forecasts are generally notoriously wrong.

What’s Your Forecast Accuracy Target for 2019?

ToolsGroup

Editor’s Note: Two years ago we posted a blog about how to set an annual forecast accuracy target and it was one of our most popular topics. Many companies have already started their 2019 planning and budgeting cycles, so if you are in charge of demand forecasting for your company, it’s about time to thinking about your organization's 2019 goals. It seems as if everyone is looking to improve their forecasting performance. Forecasting Demand and Analytics

Forecasting: Let’s Start by Asking the Right Questions

Supply Chain Shaman

This is especially true for forecasting. I find that too many companies try to buy forecasting software through a Request For Proposal (RFP). How forecastable is your product set? What is your Forecast Value Add (FVA) by product segment? Ten calls.

Get more “aha” moments in your S&OP Meetings

plan based on sales forecasts. forecasting, supply and capacity planning and. For instance, commercial stakeholders may want to update their forecast while they're on the. Sales & Operations Industry Report How the right enabling technology. helps you improve margins and.

What’s Your Forecast Accuracy Target for 2017?

ToolsGroup

In 2016, it seemed as if everyone in supply chain was looking to improve their forecasting performance. How much can you realistically expect to improve your forecast accuracy each year? Forecasting Demand and Analytics

How Not to use Machine Learning for Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Eight years ago ToolsGroup was one of the first supply chain planning software vendors to employ machine learning to improve demand forecasting. Statistical forecasting approaches have others. Forecasting Demand and Analytics Machine Learning

Which Statistical Forecasting Methods Should I Use?

Arkieva

Here are some guidelines on selecting the right statistical forecasting methods for your business. Which Statistical Forecasting Methods Should I Use? Forecasting 4 basic types of forecasting business forecasting methods forecasting examples forecasting methods pdf quantitative forecasting methods statistical forecasting definition techniques of forecasting in management time series forecasting methods

Using Demand Planning Statistical Models to Enhance Your Sales Forecasts

Arkieva

How to use demand planning statistical models to enhance the value of your sales input during the forecasting process. Using Demand Planning Statistical Models to Enhance Your Sales Forecasts was first posted on September 5, 2018 at 12:27 pm. ©2017 ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only. If you are not reading this article in your feed reader, then the site is guilty of copyright infringement.

Removing the 3 Barriers to Building a Predictive Supply Chain

But forecasting capabilities remain archaic and projections are inaccurate. forecasting doesn’t increase the predictive accuracy or intelligence. Manual forecasting is a job. on an astounding amount of guesswork and approximations to forecast and plan.

Demand Forecasting Analytical Methods: Fit Vs. Predict

Arkieva

How to determine when to use a best-fit analysis and when to use prediction techniques for demand forecasting analysis. Demand Forecasting Analytical Methods: Fit Vs. Predict was first posted on October 10, 2018 at 11:45 am. ©2017 ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only. If you are not reading this article in your feed reader, then the site is guilty of copyright infringement.

Everything You Need to Know About Demand Forecasting

Arkieva

What is Demand Forecasting? Demand Forecasting is the process in which the historical sales data is used to develop an estimate of expected forecast of customer demand. Everything You Need to Know About Demand Forecasting was first posted on July 17, 2018 at 8:16 am. ©2017 ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only.

Another Optimistic Forecast for 2019 U.S. Retail Sales

Supply Chain Matters

The National Retail Federation is forecasting that U.S. This week, the NRF issued its initial annual forecast for anticipated U.S. percent, the 2019 forecast bandwidth of between 3.9 retail sales forecasts reatil supply chain management Supply chain Matters blog

Trade promotion forecasting: the present and the near future

ToolsGroup

Trade promotion forecasting is difficult: getting it right involves factoring in many variables. Forecasting demand data, not so much. To do this, the first hurdle is creating a good statistical baseline forecast.

Real time analytics for your S&OP Meetings?

plan based on sales forecasts. forecasting, supply and capacity planning and. For instance, commercial stakeholders may want to update their forecast while they're on the. Sales & Operations Industry Report How the right enabling technology. helps you improve margins and.

Why is Demand Forecasting important for effective Supply Chain Management?

Arkieva

Demand forecasting forms an essential component of the supply chain process. While demand forecasting is undeniably important, it’s also one of the most difficult aspects of supply chain planning. Why is Demand Forecasting important for effective Supply Chain Management? It’s the driver for almost all supply chain related decisions. was first posted on September 18, 2018 at 11:58 am. ©2017

Probabilistic Forecasting Can Extend the Life of SAP APO

ToolsGroup

Since the beginning of time – OK, since the beginning of demand forecasting the standard approach has been a single number forecast that works relatively well with stable high volume demand. Machine learning can refine the forecast by crunching external data.

Building a Business Case for Improved Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

I’ve always maintained that improving demand forecast accuracy, as helpful as it can be, shouldn’t be the end goal itself, but simply a means to the end. Gartner says that you shouldn’t just pitch forecast accuracy to your executive management, but translate your plan into business metrics.

Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Editor's Note: This is the second in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Demand forecasting software can usually factor in climate and seasonality , like more ice cream being sold during summer months or in warmer climates.

Your Supply Chain Probably Has a Data Problem - Start There

make better decisions regarding everything from forecasting supply and. A Blueprint For Supply Chain Transformation The Data First Approach Introduction Over the past few decades, supply chains have evolved from a sub-function.

Why SAP APO Can’t Forecast Demand in Complex Environments

ToolsGroup

SAP APO is not equipped to address today’s supply chain challenges and that makes demand forecasting and supply chain planning more cumbersome and off target with APO or similar tools. APO’s“Top-Down” Demand Forecasting. Finally, ‘noise’ is not forecastable.

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

This explains also why supply chain planners struggle to improve their forecasts and end up hitting a ceiling. The increase of demand volatility in today’s markets explains why supply chain leaders tend to believe that their primary supply chain problem is forecast accuracy.

Simplify Supply Chain Forecasting

Logility

Is 100% forecast accuracy attainable? Anyone that has ever had to forecast demand for products or services knows that obtaining a consistently high forecast accuracy is part science and part magic. Clearly, forecast accuracy is very important.

Seven Recent Trends in Retail Demand Forecasting and Replenishment

ToolsGroup

So it’s not surprising that many are looking for more accurate demand forecasting and intelligent stock replenishment. In a report entitled Market Guide for Retail Forecasting and Replenishment Solutions , Gartner analyst Mike Griswold spotlights seven recent trends in this area.

Key Questions for a Successful Distribution Network

Speaker: Irina Rosca, Director of Supply Chain Operations, Helix

As we plan for the world of eCommerce and the customer expectation of quick, free shipping, our ability to forecast is turned on its head. How many distribution centers do we even need, and is that number feasible?

Reliable forecasting is a piece of cake

Supply Chain Movement

In our attempts to anticipate future changes in demand, we often depend on forecasts. According to a well-known saying, ‘forecasting is difficult, especially about the future,’ and this is sometimes extended along the lines of ‘especially when it’s about details’.

Forecasting the Long Tail and Intermittent Demand

ToolsGroup

Forecasting demand in the long tail is much different than in the head. Companies are dealing with more slow moving items with unpredictable demand patterns, which is making demand forecasting and inventory management more difficult. The solution is not forecast accuracy.

Why CPG Demand Forecasting Has Hit a Ceiling

ToolsGroup

Most CPG companies have hit a demand forecasting ceiling. And complexity creates a challenge of how to forecast accurately when faced with new items, new channels and demand shaping. Many CPG companies are at a loss on what to work on to improve these forecasts.

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting – Part 2

ToolsGroup

Here is one straightforward opportunity to focus on in the near future: Migrate away from top-down demand forecasting. When it comes to long-tail items, forecasting metrics such as WMAPE become almost meaningless or even misleading.

Automated Order Processing and Proactive Inventory Management

Speaker: Irina Rosca, Director of Supply Chain Operations, Helix

Companies should have seamless integration between order entry, inventory management, forecasting and supply planning models and purchase order status to sense risk, pull levers to mitigate potential risk, and communicate within and outside the organization.