Forecasting: Let’s Start by Asking the Right Questions

Supply Chain Shaman

This is especially true for forecasting. I find that too many companies try to buy forecasting software through a Request For Proposal (RFP). How forecastable is your product set? What is your Forecast Value Add (FVA) by product segment? Ten calls.

Probabilistic Forecasting: Right Fit for Your Business?

Supply Chain Shaman

A Closer Look at Forecasting. Traditionally companies forecast using history (shipments or orders) and applying linear regression to understand the patterns of historical demand using these to estimate future requirements in a time-series format. Understanding Probabilistic Forecasting.

Which Statistical Forecasting Methods Should I Use?

Arkieva

Here are some guidelines on selecting the right statistical forecasting methods for your business. Which Statistical Forecasting Methods Should I Use? Forecasting 4 basic types of forecasting business forecasting methods forecasting examples forecasting methods pdf quantitative forecasting methods statistical forecasting definition techniques of forecasting in management time series forecasting methods

Untangling the Complexities of Demand Forecasting

ModusLink Corporation

Whether facing a major product launch or compiling standard monthly forecasts, the accuracy of demand forecasts is crucial. The post Untangling the Complexities of Demand Forecasting appeared first on ModusLink Global Solutions.

Machine Learning: A Quantum Leap in Forecast Accuracy for the Modern Supply Chain

Whether you realize it or not, Machine Learning is having a profound impact on your everyday life

What is Statistical Forecasting? A snowfall-based explanation

Arkieva

What is Statistical Forecasting? Forecasting 4 basic types of forecasting forecasting tools quantitative forecasting techniques statistical forecasting methods techniques of forecasting in management types of forecasting types of forecasting in business what is forecasting in operations management

Do Returns Impact My Forecast Error Calculation Negatively?

Arkieva

Should you factor returns in your forecast error calculation? In this article, we’ll use a sample data set, to demonstrate if you should consider returns when calculating your forecast errors. Do Returns Impact My Forecast Error Calculation Negatively? Forecasting forecast accuracy kpi forecast bias calculation Forecast error calculation how to calculate mape in excel measuring forecast accuracy best practices types of forecasting errors what is a good mape

What’s Your Forecast Accuracy Target for 2017?

ToolsGroup

In 2016, it seemed as if everyone in supply chain was looking to improve their forecasting performance. How much can you realistically expect to improve your forecast accuracy each year? Forecasting Demand and Analytics

Trade promotion forecasting: the present and the near future

ToolsGroup

Trade promotion forecasting is difficult: getting it right involves factoring in many variables. Forecasting demand data, not so much. To do this, the first hurdle is creating a good statistical baseline forecast.

Removing the 3 Barriers to Building a Predictive Supply Chain

But forecasting capabilities remain archaic and projections are inaccurate. forecasting doesn’t increase the predictive accuracy or intelligence. Manual forecasting is a job. on an astounding amount of guesswork and approximations to forecast and plan.

Simplify Supply Chain Forecasting

Logility

Is 100% forecast accuracy attainable? Anyone that has ever had to forecast demand for products or services knows that obtaining a consistently high forecast accuracy is part science and part magic. Clearly, forecast accuracy is very important.

A new frontier for forecast accuracy

The Network Effect

At some point most forecasting methods will hit the law of diminishing returns where the forecast accuracy will tend to flatten out, regardless of the formulae or analytics that are applied. The post A new frontier for forecast accuracy appeared first on The Network Effect.

Get your demand planning and forecasting game on

The 21st Century Supply Chain

The only way to do that is to have processes and technology that enable critical demand planning functionality like: Forecasting : Stop chasing that perfect score. The post Get your demand planning and forecasting game on appeared first on The 21st Century Supply Chain.

Probabilistic Forecasting Can Extend the Life of SAP APO

ToolsGroup

Since the beginning of time – OK, since the beginning of demand forecasting the standard approach has been a single number forecast that works relatively well with stable high volume demand. Machine learning can refine the forecast by crunching external data.

Your Supply Chain Probably Has a Data Problem - Start There

make better decisions regarding everything from forecasting supply and. A Blueprint For Supply Chain Transformation The Data First Approach Introduction Over the past few decades, supply chains have evolved from a sub-function.

Building a Business Case for Improved Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

I’ve always maintained that improving demand forecast accuracy, as helpful as it can be, shouldn’t be the end goal itself, but simply a means to the end. Gartner says that you shouldn’t just pitch forecast accuracy to your executive management, but translate your plan into business metrics.

Revisiting Transportation Forecasting

Talking Logistics

Many companies have collaborative planning and forecasting processes with suppliers and manufacturing partners, but very few companies translate demand and production forecasts into transportation capacity requirements. In this episode, Adrian discusses the key challenges and opportunities associated with transportation forecasting. Watch as Adrian discusses: Two key reasons why transportation forecasting has been a challenge to implement.

Can Demand Segmentation Improve Your Statistical Forecast?

Arkieva

One of the not so envious tasks for this person would be to generate statistical forecast for all these combinations. These days, the statistical forecasting tools available on the market can forecast these combinations using a list of forecasting methods and figure out which method works best for a particular combination. Can Demand Segmentation Improve Your Statistical Forecast? Imagine a demand planner working with 10,000 unique combinations.

Forecasting the Long Tail and Intermittent Demand

ToolsGroup

Forecasting demand in the long tail is much different than in the head. Companies are dealing with more slow moving items with unpredictable demand patterns, which is making demand forecasting and inventory management more difficult. The solution is not forecast accuracy.

Real time analytics for your S&OP Meetings?

plan based on sales forecasts. forecasting, supply and capacity planning and. For instance, commercial stakeholders may want to update their forecast while they're on the. Sales & Operations Industry Report How the right enabling technology. helps you improve margins and.

Seven Recent Trends in Retail Demand Forecasting and Replenishment

ToolsGroup

So it’s not surprising that many are looking for more accurate demand forecasting and intelligent stock replenishment. In a report entitled Market Guide for Retail Forecasting and Replenishment Solutions , Gartner analyst Mike Griswold spotlights seven recent trends in this area.

Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Editor's Note: This is the second in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Demand forecasting software can usually factor in climate and seasonality , like more ice cream being sold during summer months or in warmer climates.

Powering Your Digital Supply Chain: Forecasting Returns

Supply Chain Nation

This creates an interesting problem for both retailers and manufacturers that sell online: in addition to predicting a customer’s original order, manufacturers and retailers need to be able to forecast expected returns. Streamlined returns management starts with an advanced ability to forecast returns, which is not an easy problem to solve. Have you ever ordered something online and then decided to return it? You’re not alone.

Forecasting 101

Blue Ridge

What is a Forecast? A forecast is everything you’ve known, thought, or seen in the past, plus everything you believe will drive demand in the future. The trending signal is a percentage that describes the rate of momentum an item’s demand is moving away from the forecast.

Get more “aha” moments in your S&OP Meetings

plan based on sales forecasts. forecasting, supply and capacity planning and. For instance, commercial stakeholders may want to update their forecast while they're on the. Sales & Operations Industry Report How the right enabling technology. helps you improve margins and.

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

This explains also why supply chain planners struggle to improve their forecasts and end up hitting a ceiling. The increase of demand volatility in today’s markets explains why supply chain leaders tend to believe that their primary supply chain problem is forecast accuracy.

Forecast Accuracy: Keep Your Demand Management Process Honest

The 21st Century Supply Chain

Lange, Director of Demand Planning and S&OP Services at Celestica, examines forecast accuracy and the main components of a demand management measurement tool and process. Reporting Forecast Accuracy. While calculating forecast accuracy is important, it’s not enough.

Adventures in Forecasting in the Supply Chain

Supply Chain Opz

And no function is more at the forefront of that endeavor than demand forecasting. In order to do that, forward planning is key, and accurate forecasts are a critical input. Given that demand can change every day, forecasting becomes the ultimate adventure.

The Forecasting Conundrum

Logility

I have heard a number of supply chain professionals proclaim that their companies should stop forecasting product demand due to poor forecast accuracy. However, what is often overlooked is that moving to a pull strategy does not eliminate the need for a forecast.

Summoning the Courage to Redefine Forecasting: Upending the Apple Cart

Supply Chain Shaman

And, even if we can afford the costs, we don’t get good answers with our current forecasting processes,” stated the supply chain leader on the phone. Inherently, business leaders know that traditional forecasting processes are inadequate. Cognitive computing/machine learning can redefine decision support/forecasting processes. With the focus on growth, new product launch and forecasting special items increases in importance.

A Better Way to Approach Forecast Accuracy Improvements

CHAINalytics

By Jaime Reints | Director, Demand Planning Intelligence Consortium (DPIC) | Chainalytics Forecasting demand can be one of the more difficult parts of managing an effective supply chain.

RELEX’s forecasting approaches

RELEX Solutions

RELEX’s forecasting approaches. Technology has transformed forecasting, enabling us to process unfathomable quantities of data and draw conclusions with an unprecedented degree of accuracy. Nevertheless, in retail forecasting, one needs good foundations. Demand Forecastin

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting – Part 2

ToolsGroup

Here is one straightforward opportunity to focus on in the near future: Migrate away from top-down demand forecasting. When it comes to long-tail items, forecasting metrics such as WMAPE become almost meaningless or even misleading.

Why CPG Demand Forecasting Has Hit a Ceiling

ToolsGroup

Most CPG companies have hit a demand forecasting ceiling. And complexity creates a challenge of how to forecast accurately when faced with new items, new channels and demand shaping. Many CPG companies are at a loss on what to work on to improve these forecasts.

How Does a Demand Forecast of Zero Impact Your Forecast Accuracy?

Arkieva

For most businesses that rely on demand forecasts for supply and capacity planning, improving demand forecast accuracy is critical. There are many methods to measure forecast bias and the accuracy of supply chain forecasts including using statistical methods like the Mean Absolute Percent Error or MAPE that we’ve discussed in our previous blogs. How Does a Demand Forecast of Zero Impact Your Forecast Accuracy?

Powering Your Digital Supply Chain: Attribute-Based Forecasting – Part 5

Supply Chain Nation

This has made reliable demand forecasting even more difficult. Supply Chain Supply Chain Management attribute-based forecasting demand forecasting digital supply chain manufacturing retailToday, across almost every category, products have more features and attributes than those available just a few years ago.