Probabilistic Forecasting - a Primer

ToolsGroup

An experienced gambler might hedge their bet on multiple outcomes, rather than just the most likely "single number forecast". At ToolsGroup we have been big advocates of probabilistic forecasting (sometimes also known as stochastic forecasting).

Dreaming about accurate forecasts?

DELMIA Quintiq

There is a saying among forecast users: “ If you forecast, you may be wrong; but you will always be wrong if you do not forecast.”. But how much faith are companies willing to place in inaccurate forecasts? This ultimately improves the quality of the forecasts.

What Technology are Teams Using to Support Their Demand Forecasting Process?

AIMMS

Part II in our series on assessing your Demand Forecasting process . In Part I of this series , we looked at supply chain professionals’ perception of forecast accuracy and how they see their forecast evolving in the future. review their forecast on a weekly basis. .

How do supply chain professionals rate their demand forecast’s accuracy?

AIMMS

Part I in our series on assessing your Demand Forecasting process. Is your demand forecasting process evolving with the times? Are you satisfied with your level of forecast accuracy? How do professionals rate their demand forecast’s accuracy? .

Machine Learning: A Quantum Leap in Forecast Accuracy for the Modern Supply Chain

Whether you realize it or not, Machine Learning is having a profound impact on your everyday life

Probabilistic Forecasting and Confidence Intervals

Arkieva

Probabilistic Forecasting and Confidence Intervals was first posted on September 27, 2019 at 11:18 am. ©2017

Business Forecasting Lessons From Hurricanes

Arkieva

With each storm, there comes a bevy of forecasts put out by different computer models. These forecasts begin about 10 days out and change as the storm gets closer and closer. This blog tries to extract some learnings from this process of forecasting.

Common Forecasting Myths Debunked – Part 1 – One Forecast is Enough

Logility

This is the first of a series of four posts that will explore common forecasting myths. In supply chain the impact of a single error can quickly derail an entire forecast. Many companies believe that once a forecast is created success will follow throughout the product life cycle.

What’s Your Forecast Accuracy Target for 2017?

ToolsGroup

In 2016, it seemed as if everyone in supply chain was looking to improve their forecasting performance. How much can you realistically expect to improve your forecast accuracy each year? Forecasting Demand and Analytics

How to Measure Forecast Errors in Intermittent Demand Forecasting

Arkieva

Stop using traditional forecast accuracy metrics to measure forecast for sporadic demand patterns. How to Measure Forecast Errors in Intermittent Demand Forecasting was first posted on March 19, 2019 at 12:19 pm. ©2017 Use this method instead. ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only. If you are not reading this article in your feed reader, then the site is guilty of copyright infringement.

Your Supply Chain Probably Has a Data Problem - Start There

make better decisions regarding everything from forecasting supply and. A Blueprint For Supply Chain Transformation The Data First Approach Introduction Over the past few decades, supply chains have evolved from a sub-function.

Why probabilistic forecasting is better for inventory optimization

ToolsGroup

Last month we published a primer on probabilistic forecasting , an alternative to deterministic or ‘single number’ forecasting. Spreadsheets and legacy suites like SAP APO produce top-down aggregated forecasts using a deterministic approach.

Determining Forecast Fit

Vanguard Software

A forecast is considered a good fit if it captures all patterns and trends, while excluding random noise. Supply Chain Integrated Business Planning (IBP) Sales Forecasting

How Not to use Machine Learning for Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Eight years ago ToolsGroup was one of the first supply chain planning software vendors to employ machine learning to improve demand forecasting. Statistical forecasting approaches have others. Forecasting Demand and Analytics Machine Learning

What’s Your Forecast Accuracy Target for 2019?

ToolsGroup

Editor’s Note: Two years ago we posted a blog about how to set an annual forecast accuracy target and it was one of our most popular topics. Many companies have already started their 2019 planning and budgeting cycles, so if you are in charge of demand forecasting for your company, it’s about time to thinking about your organization's 2019 goals. It seems as if everyone is looking to improve their forecasting performance. Forecasting Demand and Analytics

Key Questions for a Successful Distribution Network

Speaker: Irina Rosca, Director of Supply Chain Operations, Helix

As we plan for the world of eCommerce and the customer expectation of quick, free shipping, our ability to forecast is turned on its head. How many distribution centers do we even need, and is that number feasible?

New Product Forecasting

Vanguard Software

Three ways to model new product releases for better forecasting, planning and performance. Supply Chain Demand Planning Sales & Operations Planning

Probabilistic Forecasting: Right Fit for Your Business?

Supply Chain Shaman

A Closer Look at Forecasting. Traditionally companies forecast using history (shipments or orders) and applying linear regression to understand the patterns of historical demand using these to estimate future requirements in a time-series format. Understanding Probabilistic Forecasting.

Building a Business Case for Improved Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

I’ve always maintained that improving demand forecast accuracy, as helpful as it can be, shouldn’t be the end goal itself, but simply a means to the end. Gartner says that you shouldn’t just pitch forecast accuracy to your executive management, but translate your plan into business metrics.

Trade promotion forecasting: the present and the near future

ToolsGroup

Trade promotion forecasting is difficult: getting it right involves factoring in many variables. Forecasting demand data, not so much. To do this, the first hurdle is creating a good statistical baseline forecast.

Automated Order Processing and Proactive Inventory Management

Speaker: Irina Rosca, Director of Supply Chain Operations, Helix

Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Editor's Note: This is the second in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Demand forecasting software can usually factor in climate and seasonality , like more ice cream being sold during summer months or in warmer climates.

Probabilistic Forecasting Can Extend the Life of SAP APO

ToolsGroup

Since the beginning of time – OK, since the beginning of demand forecasting the standard approach has been a single number forecast that works relatively well with stable high volume demand. Machine learning can refine the forecast by crunching external data.

A new frontier for forecast accuracy

The Network Effect

At some point most forecasting methods will hit the law of diminishing returns where the forecast accuracy will tend to flatten out, regardless of the formulae or analytics that are applied. The post A new frontier for forecast accuracy appeared first on The Network Effect.

Why SAP APO Can’t Forecast Demand in Complex Environments

ToolsGroup

SAP APO is not equipped to address today’s supply chain challenges and that makes demand forecasting and supply chain planning more cumbersome and off target with APO or similar tools. APO’s“Top-Down” Demand Forecasting. Finally, ‘noise’ is not forecastable.

Removing the 3 Barriers to Building a Predictive Supply Chain

But forecasting capabilities remain archaic and projections are inaccurate. forecasting doesn’t increase the predictive accuracy or intelligence. Manual forecasting is a job. on an astounding amount of guesswork and approximations to forecast and plan.

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

This explains also why supply chain planners struggle to improve their forecasts and end up hitting a ceiling. The increase of demand volatility in today’s markets explains why supply chain leaders tend to believe that their primary supply chain problem is forecast accuracy.

Simplify Supply Chain Forecasting

Logility

Is 100% forecast accuracy attainable? Anyone that has ever had to forecast demand for products or services knows that obtaining a consistently high forecast accuracy is part science and part magic. Clearly, forecast accuracy is very important.

Probabilities in Business Forecasting

Vanguard Software

Forecast errors can haunt planners years into the future, when even small discrepancies between forecasts and actuals can cost companies significant amounts.

Seven Recent Trends in Retail Demand Forecasting and Replenishment

ToolsGroup

So it’s not surprising that many are looking for more accurate demand forecasting and intelligent stock replenishment. In a report entitled Market Guide for Retail Forecasting and Replenishment Solutions , Gartner analyst Mike Griswold spotlights seven recent trends in this area.

Selecting the Appropriate Types Forecasting Methods

Arkieva

Selecting the right forecasting methods can be highly critical in how accurate your forecasts are. Unfortunately, there isn’t a golden ticket to forecasting which can essentially ensure accuracy. While the best-fit forecasting method is dependent on a business’ specific situation, understanding the types of forecasting methods can aid in your decision-making. Selecting the Appropriate Types Forecasting Methods was first posted on November 27, 2018 at 8:29 am. ©2017

AI-enabled Forecast Selection

Vanguard Software

Vanguard Uses Artificial Intelligence to select the forecast method that is most likely to produce the lowest prediction error over the near-term horizon.

How to Forecast Demand for New Products

Arkieva

However, a new product launch poses a totally new challenge – new product forecasting. How to Forecast Demand for New Products was first posted on January 23, 2019 at 2:24 pm. ©2017 Organizations need to regularly upgrade their products and launch new products to stay competitive and grow their businesses. ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only.

Myth of Straight-line Forecast

Vanguard Software

In the absence of real patterns, the best forecast is a straight line. Sales Forecasting Integrated Business Planning (IBP) Inventory Optimization Sales & Operations Planning Supply ChainSometimes variability in exhibits a trend or pattern and sometimes it is just “noise.”

Why CPG Demand Forecasting Has Hit a Ceiling

ToolsGroup

Most CPG companies have hit a demand forecasting ceiling. And complexity creates a challenge of how to forecast accurately when faced with new items, new channels and demand shaping. Many CPG companies are at a loss on what to work on to improve these forecasts.

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting – Part 2

ToolsGroup

Here is one straightforward opportunity to focus on in the near future: Migrate away from top-down demand forecasting. When it comes to long-tail items, forecasting metrics such as WMAPE become almost meaningless or even misleading.

Revisiting Transportation Forecasting

Talking Logistics

Many companies have collaborative planning and forecasting processes with suppliers and manufacturing partners, but very few companies translate demand and production forecasts into transportation capacity requirements. In this episode, Adrian discusses the key challenges and opportunities associated with transportation forecasting. Watch as Adrian discusses: Two key reasons why transportation forecasting has been a challenge to implement.