Probabilistic Forecasting - a Primer

ToolsGroup

An experienced gambler might hedge their bet on multiple outcomes, rather than just the most likely "single number forecast". At ToolsGroup we have been big advocates of probabilistic forecasting (sometimes also known as stochastic forecasting).

Probabilistic Forecasting: Right Fit for Your Business?

Supply Chain Shaman

A Closer Look at Forecasting. Traditionally companies forecast using history (shipments or orders) and applying linear regression to understand the patterns of historical demand using these to estimate future requirements in a time-series format. Understanding Probabilistic Forecasting.

Untangling the Complexities of Demand Forecasting

ModusLink Corporation

Whether facing a major product launch or compiling standard monthly forecasts, the accuracy of demand forecasts is crucial. The post Untangling the Complexities of Demand Forecasting appeared first on ModusLink Global Solutions.

Common Forecasting Myths Debunked – Part 1 – One Forecast is Enough

Logility

This is the first of a series of four posts that will explore common forecasting myths. In supply chain the impact of a single error can quickly derail an entire forecast. Many companies believe that once a forecast is created success will follow throughout the product life cycle.

How does your demand forecasting compare to your peers?

How to Measure Forecast Errors in Intermittent Demand Forecasting

Arkieva

Stop using traditional forecast accuracy metrics to measure forecast for sporadic demand patterns. How to Measure Forecast Errors in Intermittent Demand Forecasting was first posted on March 19, 2019 at 12:19 pm. ©2017 Use this method instead. ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only. If you are not reading this article in your feed reader, then the site is guilty of copyright infringement.

Probabilities in Business Forecasting

Vanguard Software

Forecast errors can haunt planners years into the future, when even small discrepancies between forecasts and actuals can cost companies significant amounts.

Forecasting: Let’s Start by Asking the Right Questions

Supply Chain Shaman

This is especially true for forecasting. I find that too many companies try to buy forecasting software through a Request For Proposal (RFP). How forecastable is your product set? What is your Forecast Value Add (FVA) by product segment? Ten calls.

Why probabilistic forecasting is better for inventory optimization

ToolsGroup

Last month we published a primer on probabilistic forecasting , an alternative to deterministic or ‘single number’ forecasting. Spreadsheets and legacy suites like SAP APO produce top-down aggregated forecasts using a deterministic approach.

Monetizing Forecast Error for Executive Buy-In

Vanguard Software

Small improvements in forecast accuracy can have enormous impacts on customer satisfaction and net income. Sales & Operations Planning Demand Planning Sales Forecasting Supply Chain

Machine Learning: A Quantum Leap in Forecast Accuracy for the Modern Supply Chain

Whether you realize it or not, Machine Learning is having a profound impact on your everyday life

How Not to use Machine Learning for Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Eight years ago ToolsGroup was one of the first supply chain planning software vendors to employ machine learning to improve demand forecasting. Statistical forecasting approaches have others. Forecasting Demand and Analytics Machine Learning

What’s Your Forecast Accuracy Target for 2019?

ToolsGroup

Editor’s Note: Two years ago we posted a blog about how to set an annual forecast accuracy target and it was one of our most popular topics. Many companies have already started their 2019 planning and budgeting cycles, so if you are in charge of demand forecasting for your company, it’s about time to thinking about your organization's 2019 goals. It seems as if everyone is looking to improve their forecasting performance. Forecasting Demand and Analytics

Forecasting with Returns

Arkieva

Should we combine the positive numbers and the negative numbers as we approach the essential business of forecasting future demand? Forecasting with Returns was first posted on June 26, 2019 at 9:15 am. ©2017 Demand Planning Forecasting

Why SAP APO Can’t Forecast Demand in Complex Environments

ToolsGroup

SAP APO is not equipped to address today’s supply chain challenges and that makes demand forecasting and supply chain planning more cumbersome and off target with APO or similar tools. APO’s“Top-Down” Demand Forecasting. Finally, ‘noise’ is not forecastable.

Key Questions for a Successful Distribution Network

Speaker: Irina Rosca, Director of Supply Chain Operations, Helix

As we plan for the world of eCommerce and the customer expectation of quick, free shipping, our ability to forecast is turned on its head. How many distribution centers do we even need, and is that number feasible?

Building a Business Case for Improved Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

I’ve always maintained that improving demand forecast accuracy, as helpful as it can be, shouldn’t be the end goal itself, but simply a means to the end. Gartner says that you shouldn’t just pitch forecast accuracy to your executive management, but translate your plan into business metrics.

Trade promotion forecasting: the present and the near future

ToolsGroup

Trade promotion forecasting is difficult: getting it right involves factoring in many variables. Forecasting demand data, not so much. To do this, the first hurdle is creating a good statistical baseline forecast.

Probabilistic Forecasting Can Extend the Life of SAP APO

ToolsGroup

Since the beginning of time – OK, since the beginning of demand forecasting the standard approach has been a single number forecast that works relatively well with stable high volume demand. Machine learning can refine the forecast by crunching external data.

Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Editor's Note: This is the second in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Demand forecasting software can usually factor in climate and seasonality , like more ice cream being sold during summer months or in warmer climates.

Automated Order Processing and Proactive Inventory Management

Speaker: Irina Rosca, Director of Supply Chain Operations, Helix

Selecting the Appropriate Types Forecasting Methods

Arkieva

Selecting the right forecasting methods can be highly critical in how accurate your forecasts are. Unfortunately, there isn’t a golden ticket to forecasting which can essentially ensure accuracy. While the best-fit forecasting method is dependent on a business’ specific situation, understanding the types of forecasting methods can aid in your decision-making. Selecting the Appropriate Types Forecasting Methods was first posted on November 27, 2018 at 8:29 am. ©2017

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

This explains also why supply chain planners struggle to improve their forecasts and end up hitting a ceiling. The increase of demand volatility in today’s markets explains why supply chain leaders tend to believe that their primary supply chain problem is forecast accuracy.

Simplify Supply Chain Forecasting

Logility

Is 100% forecast accuracy attainable? Anyone that has ever had to forecast demand for products or services knows that obtaining a consistently high forecast accuracy is part science and part magic. Clearly, forecast accuracy is very important.

Seven Recent Trends in Retail Demand Forecasting and Replenishment

ToolsGroup

So it’s not surprising that many are looking for more accurate demand forecasting and intelligent stock replenishment. In a report entitled Market Guide for Retail Forecasting and Replenishment Solutions , Gartner analyst Mike Griswold spotlights seven recent trends in this area.

How to Forecast Demand for New Products

Arkieva

However, a new product launch poses a totally new challenge – new product forecasting. How to Forecast Demand for New Products was first posted on January 23, 2019 at 2:24 pm. ©2017 Organizations need to regularly upgrade their products and launch new products to stay competitive and grow their businesses. ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only.

Revisiting Transportation Forecasting

Talking Logistics

Many companies have collaborative planning and forecasting processes with suppliers and manufacturing partners, but very few companies translate demand and production forecasts into transportation capacity requirements. In this episode, Adrian discusses the key challenges and opportunities associated with transportation forecasting. Watch as Adrian discusses: Two key reasons why transportation forecasting has been a challenge to implement.

Why CPG Demand Forecasting Has Hit a Ceiling

ToolsGroup

Most CPG companies have hit a demand forecasting ceiling. And complexity creates a challenge of how to forecast accurately when faced with new items, new channels and demand shaping. Many CPG companies are at a loss on what to work on to improve these forecasts.

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting – Part 2

ToolsGroup

Here is one straightforward opportunity to focus on in the near future: Migrate away from top-down demand forecasting. When it comes to long-tail items, forecasting metrics such as WMAPE become almost meaningless or even misleading.

Forecasting the Long Tail and Intermittent Demand

ToolsGroup

Forecasting demand in the long tail is much different than in the head. Companies are dealing with more slow moving items with unpredictable demand patterns, which is making demand forecasting and inventory management more difficult. The solution is not forecast accuracy.

Why is Demand Forecasting important for effective Supply Chain Management?

Arkieva

Demand forecasting forms an essential component of the supply chain process. While demand forecasting is undeniably important, it’s also one of the most difficult aspects of supply chain planning. Why is Demand Forecasting important for effective Supply Chain Management? It’s the driver for almost all supply chain related decisions. was first posted on September 18, 2018 at 11:58 am. ©2017

Which Statistical Forecasting Methods Should I Use?

Arkieva

Here are some guidelines on selecting the right statistical forecasting methods for your business. Which Statistical Forecasting Methods Should I Use? Forecasting 4 basic types of forecasting business forecasting methods forecasting examples forecasting methods pdf quantitative forecasting methods statistical forecasting definition techniques of forecasting in management time series forecasting methods

The Forecasting Conundrum

Logility

I have heard a number of supply chain professionals proclaim that their companies should stop forecasting product demand due to poor forecast accuracy. However, what is often overlooked is that moving to a pull strategy does not eliminate the need for a forecast.

Everything You Need to Know About Demand Forecasting

Arkieva

What is Demand Forecasting? Demand Forecasting is the process in which the historical sales data is used to develop an estimate of expected forecast of customer demand. Everything You Need to Know About Demand Forecasting was first posted on July 17, 2018 at 8:16 am. ©2017 ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only.

Reliable forecasting is a piece of cake

Supply Chain Movement

In our attempts to anticipate future changes in demand, we often depend on forecasts. According to a well-known saying, ‘forecasting is difficult, especially about the future,’ and this is sometimes extended along the lines of ‘especially when it’s about details’.

Here’s What’s Wrong with Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Since there will be a week off between posts, we wanted to forgo the fluff in most year-end blogs and leave you with a deep philosophical thought to ponder while on your holiday break, and it’s this: Maybe you are doing your demand forecasting completely wrong. Consider a weather forecast.