ToolsGroup

JULY 28, 2021

But many supply chain practitioners don’t realize that the most common approach to supply chain planning–using a demand-driven forecast as the primary input to future planning–is just as passé. As I see it, this is a singularly frightening prospect for one simple reason: Your demand forecast is wrong.

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Forecasting Gartner Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Optimization 296

Logility

NOVEMBER 13, 2020

Causal f orecasting shines a light on , and isolates, actual demand signals from market “chatter,” thus improving forecast quality. What Exactly Is Causal Forecasting? . First, what it’s not is a replacement for demand forecasting. The Benefits Offered by Logility’s Causal Forecasting Solution.

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Forecasting Supply Chain Planning Logility Supply Chain Strategy 246

Logistics Viewpoints

JUNE 8, 2022

It is hard to believe it has been two years since I was faced with forecasting WMS and warehouse automation market growth rates in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. These events make accurate forecasting very difficult. I tend to use time series analysis as an anchor to my forecast, as I suspect many of you do.

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Forecasting Supply Chain Planning Analysis Supply Chain 242

ToolsGroup

NOVEMBER 2, 2020

Melitta Sales Europe (MSE) embarked on an initiative to revamp existing planning and forecasting processes to increase efficiency and sustainability. MSE’s prioritization of its close internal collaboration strengthens the precision of its forecasts, ensuring a more robust S&OP process. A Perfect Brew. Read Case Study.

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Logility

APRIL 21, 2023

Now that businesses have better access to predictive forecasting technologies that leverage data from the past and present, such a one-sided approach to forecasting, analytics, reporting, and planning is no longer justifiable. This then translates into fewer lost sales and lowering product unavailability by up to 65%.

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Forecasting Gartner Supply Chain Optimization Supply Chain Planning 130

Arkieva

SEPTEMBER 14, 2021

A successful demand planning process accurately forecasts demand and revenue streams, and subsequently drives the next steps in the S&OP process which are Inventory, Supply Planning, and Optimization. Automated Forecasting was first posted on September 14, 2021 at 8:38 am.

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Forecasting Supply Chain Optimization Supply Chain Planning S&OP 158

ToolsGroup

MAY 4, 2021

In episode nine of Be Ready for Anything, supply chain expert Stefan de Kok breaks down the basics of probabilistic forecasting. I’m your host, Mary Vasile, and today I’m delighted to welcome Stefan de Kok who is going to shed some light on probabilistic forecasting. If you went to academia, they call it a density forecast.

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Forecasting Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Design Supply Chain 156

ToolsGroup

MAY 13, 2021

Demand modeling is different from demand forecasting. Simply put, it doesn’t forecast demand, it models demand. Forecasting typically starts with a time series of data—usually presented as a bar chart displaying demand by month or by week. Read more in our blog: Probabilistic Planning and Forecasting Demystified.

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Forecasting Optimization Modeling Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Optimization 177

CHAINalytics

DECEMBER 7, 2021

Getting better statistical forecasts involves choosing the right technology, applying multiple forecast optimisation techniques, and a continuous improvement approach. This blog post is the second part of a Chainalytics’ Integrated Demand and Supply Planning practice five-part series on improving statistical forecasting.

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Forecasting Demand Planning How To Continuous Improvement 133

ToolsGroup

MARCH 16, 2023

We knew we could maintain and raise this level of service, limit waste, and improve profitability by adopting a solution that applies this innovative drive to our planning processes, streamlines collaboration, and increases forecast accuracy.” What makes ToolsGroup’s forecasting approach the most accurate?

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Forecasting ToolsGroup Supply Chain Planning Demand Planning 156

Logility

APRIL 21, 2020

The ability to effectively forecast demand is essential for supply chain management decisions. In fact, demand forecasts are used throughout the supply chain including supply chain design, purchasing, operations, inventory, and sales and marketing. The payoffs were big, but they did not come easily. So what’s the upside?

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Forecasting Supply Chain Optimization Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Design 222

ToolsGroup

MARCH 16, 2021

I have been blogging and advocating for the past 15 years on probabilistic approaches to planning and forecasting, and am happy to see in the last few years it has finally started gaining traction and attention. A symptom of a probabilistic plan or forecast is that its results are generally also expressed as probability distributions.

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Forecasting Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Distribution 156

Arkieva

MAY 10, 2022

Is there an equivalent to the Hippocratic Oath for forecasters? What harm(s) can a forecaster easily avoid? The Hippocratic Oath for Forecasters was first posted on May 10, 2022 at 9:02 am. This blog explores some examples.

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Forecasting Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Examples 148

ToolsGroup

JUNE 17, 2021

Accurate forecasting of uncertain demand. Probabilistic forecasting then produces a range of possible outcomes with probabilities assigned to all values within the range. Probabilistic forecasting then produces a range of possible outcomes with probabilities assigned to all values within the range. Right-sizing inventory.

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Forecasting Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Strategy Supply Chain Optimization 295

Logility

MARCH 6, 2020

Machine Learning for demand forecasting has matured to a level of accuracy, transparency and replicability that translates into transformative results, including in these five areas: Accuracy, transparency, thoroughness of analytical options and results. Let’s take a closer look at each one. Accuracy and transparency.

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Unleashed

MAY 1, 2023

Demand forecasting has gained increasing importance over the last few years. We met with five supply chain experts to discuss how crucial demand forecasting is for mitigating risk, and what businesses can do to improve forecast accuracy. Our experts explain that best-practice demand planning begins with a top-down forecast.

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Forecasting Supply Chain Strategy Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain 96

ToolsGroup

DECEMBER 2, 2021

There’s been a lot of change in how we view supply chain demand forecasting: we moved from a focus on supply—what and how much to supply or replenish—to the demand-driven supply chain, which placed too much emphasis on the intermediate goal of an accurate demand forecast. What is demand forecasting in supply chain management?

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Supply Chain Strategy Forecasting Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Optimization 156

ToolsGroup

MARCH 3, 2022

Despite knowing all this, too many retailers ignore the impact of weather and this adds error to plans and demand forecasts. And even though meteorology has come a long way, weather is a notoriously fickle and uncontrollable factor, and no forecaster can reliably predict it beyond the next few weeks. It all evens out in the end.

Forecasting 156

Forecasting Retail Predictive Analytics Inventory 156

Arkieva

OCTOBER 25, 2021

Our focus in this blog series has been to establish forecast accuracy targets. In very general terms, the goal should be to add value to the business through the forecasting process. We have however focused on the forecast value add and using that to create a minimum acceptable forecast accuracy target in the previous blog.

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Forecasting Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Data 158

Arkieva

AUGUST 17, 2021

Having access to an accurate forecast is very beneficial for businesses. How Forecastable is Your Data? If used correctly, it can provide better margins, increase market shares, and many other positive results. was first posted on August 17, 2021 at 8:05 am.

Forecasting 158

Forecasting Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Data 158

ToolsGroup

MAY 19, 2021

Demand forecasting is tough, and getting it right over the entire product lifecycle during the course of launch, maturation, and end-of-life is tougher still. Forecasting new product introductions is difficult because you don’t have sales history, and you don’t have a good idea of how quickly the product will take off.

Forecasting 156

Forecasting Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Inventory 156

Arkieva

JANUARY 26, 2021

Some time ago, I had been trying to help a business improve its statistical forecasting. We tried different parameters and different forecasting algorithms but the statistical forecast for about half of the products could not be improved no matter what we tried. We decided to do a deep dive to understand the reason.

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Forecasting Demand Planning Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Strategy 158

SYSPRO Smarter ERP

MARCH 15, 2023

Manufactures are continuously faced with the challenge of forecasting how much (raw material) to purchase and how much (finished goods) to produce. To manage this delicate balance of demand and supply, manufacturers often use statistical forecasting techniques to predict future demand by looking at historical sales data.

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Forecasting Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Predictive Analytics 85

Logistics Viewpoints

JUNE 7, 2021

The implementation also involves leveraging weather data to improve forecasting. Gijs Majoor, vice president of supply chain and sustainable fuels, and Jacob Gladysz, the director of logistics explained the Pinnacle Propane business and their journey to improve their forecasting. Forecasting is harder there. This is also rare.

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Arkieva

AUGUST 31, 2021

The cycle stock is the one most connected to the demand forecast; it is expected to be sold as the forecast becomes real demand. As such, it is not always linked to forecasting accuracy. Relationship Between Forecast Accuracy and Safety Stocks was first posted on August 31, 2021 at 8:31 am.

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Forecasting Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Inventory 152

Logistics Viewpoints

MARCH 31, 2020

It is 2020; we now have reasonably accurate short-term weather forecasts. The post Weather-Influenced Demand Forecasting in 2020 appeared first on Logistics Viewpoints. Kudos to those writing about the way weather influences consumer demand. Kudos to those writing about the way weather influences consumer demand.

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Logility

MARCH 25, 2020

For today’s supply chain planner, the art and especially the science of forecasting demand have evolved. Traditionally, forecasting models were based on time series techniques that create a forecast based on prior sales history. The limitations of time-series forecasting. Here’s one boardroom scenario.

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SYSPRO Smarter ERP

MAY 10, 2023

In this post, we look at how adopting machine learning can enable organisations to forecast demand with high accuracy despite the increasing volatility in the supply chain. Therefore, they calculate demand forecasts that respond to changing market conditions and consumer behaviour in real-time.

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Forecasting Supply Chain Planning Supply Chain Predictive Analytics 74

The Smart Software

APRIL 17, 2023

What do you do when you are forecasting an intermittently demanded item, such as a spare part, with an average demand of less than one unit per month? Most of the time, the demand is zero, but the part is significant in a business sense; it can’t be ignored and must be forecasted to be sure you have adequate stock.

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Forecasting How To Software Supply Chain Optimization 77

ToolsGroup

OCTOBER 16, 2018

An experienced gambler might hedge their bet on multiple outcomes, rather than just the most likely "single number forecast". At ToolsGroup we have been big advocates of probabilistic forecasting (sometimes also known as stochastic forecasting). In this case, forecasting 100 units is a pretty safe bet.

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