Probabilistic Forecasting: Right Fit for Your Business?

Supply Chain Shaman

A Closer Look at Forecasting. Traditionally companies forecast using history (shipments or orders) and applying linear regression to understand the patterns of historical demand using these to estimate future requirements in a time-series format. Understanding Probabilistic Forecasting.

Building a Business Case for Improved Demand Forecasting


I’ve always maintained that improving demand forecast accuracy, as helpful as it can be, shouldn’t be the end goal itself, but simply a means to the end. Gartner says that you shouldn’t just pitch forecast accuracy to your executive management, but translate your plan into business metrics.

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Untangling the Complexities of Demand Forecasting

Value Unchained

Whether facing a major product launch or compiling standard monthly forecasts, the accuracy of demand forecasts is crucial. The post Untangling the Complexities of Demand Forecasting appeared first on ModusLink Global Solutions.

What’s Your Forecast Accuracy Target for 2017?


In 2016, it seemed as if everyone in supply chain was looking to improve their forecasting performance. How much can you realistically expect to improve your forecast accuracy each year? Forecasting Demand and Analytics

Machine Learning: A Quantum Leap in Forecast Accuracy for the Modern Supply Chain

Whether you realize it or not, Machine Learning is having a profound impact on your everyday life

Forecasting 101

Blue Ridge

What is a Forecast? A forecast is everything you’ve known, thought, or seen in the past, plus everything you believe will drive demand in the future. The trending signal is a percentage that describes the rate of momentum an item’s demand is moving away from the forecast.

A shift in philosophy: basketball and your demand forecast

The Network Effect

Efforts like ECR and Collaborative Planning Forecasting & Replenishment (CPFR) are primarily focused on reviewing and reconciling the outputs of each organizations plans. For example, many collaborative tools depict two independent forecasts on the same screen. Two forecasts?

Here’s What’s Wrong with Demand Forecasting


Since there will be a week off between posts, we wanted to forgo the fluff in most year-end blogs and leave you with a deep philosophical thought to ponder while on your holiday break, and it’s this: Maybe you are doing your demand forecasting completely wrong. Consider a weather forecast.

The Forecasting Conundrum


I have heard a number of supply chain professionals proclaim that their companies should stop forecasting product demand due to poor forecast accuracy. However, what is often overlooked is that moving to a pull strategy does not eliminate the need for a forecast.

Tech -Driven Supply Chains: How Innovations Are Transforming the Trucking Industry

Forecasting the Future. November 2017. November 2017. 1 Tech-Driven Supply Chains: How Innovations. Are Transforming the Trucking Industry. Trucking may be notoriously conservative. and slow to change, but all signs point to a. major technological shift. Political, social and.

Five Ways Machine Learning Can Improve Demand Forecasting


When it comes to demand forecasting , machine learning can be especially helpful in complex scenarios, allowing planners to do a much better job of forecasting difficult situations. But capturing this behavior is critical to producing an accurate forecast.

Why SAP APO Can’t Forecast Demand in Complex Environments


SAP APO is not equipped to address today’s supply chain challenges and that makes demand forecasting and supply chain planning more cumbersome and off target with APO or similar tools. APO’s“Top-Down” Demand Forecasting. Finally, ‘noise’ is not forecastable.

Why CPG Demand Forecasting Has Hit a Ceiling


Most CPG companies have hit a demand forecasting ceiling. And complexity creates a challenge of how to forecast accurately when faced with new items, new channels and demand shaping. Many CPG companies are at a loss on what to work on to improve these forecasts.

Adventures in Forecasting in the Supply Chain

Supply Chain Opz

And no function is more at the forefront of that endeavor than demand forecasting. In order to do that, forward planning is key, and accurate forecasts are a critical input. Given that demand can change every day, forecasting becomes the ultimate adventure.

Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Demand Forecasting


Editor's Note: This is the second in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Demand forecasting software can usually factor in climate and seasonality , like more ice cream being sold during summer months or in warmer climates.

A Better Way to Approach Forecast Accuracy Improvements


By Jaime Reints | Director, Demand Planning Intelligence Consortium (DPIC) | Chainalytics Forecasting demand can be one of the more difficult parts of managing an effective supply chain.

RELEX’s forecasting approaches

RELEX Solutions

RELEX’s forecasting approaches. Technology has transformed forecasting, enabling us to process unfathomable quantities of data and draw conclusions with an unprecedented degree of accuracy. Nevertheless, in retail forecasting, one needs good foundations. Demand Forecastin

Powering Your Digital Supply Chain: Forecasting Returns

Supply Chain Nation

This creates an interesting problem for both retailers and manufacturers that sell online: in addition to predicting a customer’s original order, manufacturers and retailers need to be able to forecast expected returns. Streamlined returns management starts with an advanced ability to forecast returns, which is not an easy problem to solve. Have you ever ordered something online and then decided to return it? You’re not alone.

What’s missing from your demand forecasting?


‘We already have sophisticated demand forecasting. While I agree that sophisticated demand forecasting and analytics are necessary, they aren’t sufficient. Many organizations have invested in powerful demand forecasting tools and centralized planning.

Forecast Accuracy: Keep Your Demand Management Process Honest

The 21st Century Supply Chain

Lange, Director of Demand Planning and S&OP Services at Celestica, examines forecast accuracy and the main components of a demand management measurement tool and process. Reporting Forecast Accuracy. While calculating forecast accuracy is important, it’s not enough.

Why the Forecast for Supply Chain Planning has been Only Partly Cloudy


Cloud-based supply chain planning is gaining traction. Each year more users opt for cloud-based systems and there is a lot of support in the analyst community.

The Statistical Forecasting Conundrum

Blue Ridge

No other component gets more attention and, dare I say, abuse than the forecast itself. When we run out of stock or miss service levels, it’s the forecast that takes the blame. When we are overstocked, it’s because the forecast is too high. View From The Ridge: 50. April 8, 2016.

We compared the Accuracy of 4 Different Demand Forecasting Methods; Here’s What We Found.


Over the past few months, we’ve been running simulation tests on different demand forecasting methods: Winter’s additive & multiplicative, seasonal and robust seasonal. Then, we used MAPE to determine the forecast accuracy for each method. We compared the Accuracy of 4 Different Demand Forecasting Methods; Here’s What We Found.

Demand Forecasting: The Art and Science That Keeps You Guessing


“It is said that the present is pregnant with the future” – Voltaire Forecasting, therefore, is an attempt to deduce the future from the present. We will explore the practice of forecasting demand in the short to medium term. Within the constraints of economic and technology trends, demand forecasting drives the planning process in most businesses. Demand Forecasting: The Art and Science That Keeps You Guessing was first posted on May 3, 2017 at 12:56 pm. ©2017

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting – Part 2


Here is one straightforward opportunity to focus on in the near future: Migrate away from top-down demand forecasting. When it comes to long-tail items, forecasting metrics such as WMAPE become almost meaningless or even misleading.

Who wants to become a demand-forecasting expert? (Part 1)


Till the moment comes when we can just buckle in and set the dial to 10 years from now, we need to equip ourselves with the right tools and skills to forecast for the future. Improving your demand forecast is one of the best things you can do for your sales and operations planning.

A 5-Step Guide to Improving Your Statistical Forecast Technique


Statistical forecasts are often used as the baseline forecast for demand planning. Due to this reason, statistical forecast accuracy is critical to improving the entire demand planning process. Use this easy step by step statistical forecast technique guide to help you get started with improving your forecasts. A 5-Step Guide to Improving Your Statistical Forecast Technique was first posted on May 10, 2017 at 8:07 am. ©2017

Forecasting in a Shelf-Connected Supply Network

The Network Effect

Today I want to discuss how new approaches to forecasting processes are required in a shelf-connected world. . With this more accurate forecast, retailers can improve on-shelf availability, increase sales, reduce days of supply, and decrease overall supply chain costs.

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting


This explains also why supply chain planners struggle to improve their forecasts and end up hitting a ceiling. The increase of demand volatility in today’s markets explains why supply chain leaders tend to believe that their primary supply chain problem is forecast accuracy.

More Accurate Promotion Forecasting with Causal Modelling

RELEX Solutions

More accurate promotion forecasting with causal modelling. It’s inevitable that the management and forecasting of promotional activities must keep up the pace with this trend. To cope, sophisticated promotion forecasting and planning methods is necessary.

Heard It through the Grapevine? Now Your Demand Forecasting Can Too


Editor's Note: This is the third in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Part Two of the series, on Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Forecasting , can be found here. Forecasting Demand and Analytics

Forecasting: A Forgotten Requirement

Logistics Viewpoints

A few months ago, I attended the ToolsGroup Supply Chain Transformation conference in Boston. I am always interested in case study presentations, as I find that I learn a lot about how companies are applying their technology and business processes to solve a problem. These case studies are also an opportunity to give other practitioners a different way to look at a problem they may be experiencing as well. One of the case study presentations […

Market Update: Seasonal Freight Surge and Consumer Forecast

PLS Logistics

Adobe Digital Intelligence says that 31% of consumers start shopping before November 1, and 27% will start before Thanksgiving, so the supply chain plans for the holiday season for months and months in advance.

Do Not Get Trapped by Traditional Holiday Product Forecasting Methods This Year

Supply Chain Matters

Earlier this month, the National Retail Federation (NRF) released a rather optimistic forecast of expected holiday retail sales for the months of November and December. Supply Chain Matters however, advises some prudent caution and here is why we take such a view.

Is Statistical Forecasting Making Your Demand Plan Better or Worse?


But the demand planning phase is typically the most challenging, since … The post Is Statistical Forecasting Making Your Demand Plan Better or Worse? Blog Demand Planning Intelligence Consortium Integrated Demand & Supply Planning What's New Analytics Chainalytics Demand Planning Forecasting Pekka Hakkinen S&OP Sales & Operations Planning Statistical Forecasting

Should We Forget About the Forecast? Supply Chain Interview Series

The 21st Century Supply Chain

The Future of Supply Chain Demand Forecasting

Enterra Insights

Forecasting is an ‘inexact science’,” writes Keith Peterson (@KPeteHalo), President and CEO of Halo, “that relies on the data available … Continued. The post The Future of Supply Chain Demand Forecasting appeared first on Enterra Solutions.

What-if Wednesday: Forecast Simulation – What Happens if You Change The Alpha Parameter in a Forecasting Method?


What if scenario forecast simulation: what is the effect of changing the alpha parameter in Holt-Winters method? From time to time, clients ask me about the effect of changing a parameter of a forecasting method. Related: Is Your Forecast Biased Much?

Sennheiser’s five wisdoms about forecasting

Supply Chain Movement

Sennheiser has discovered that the large majority of its products can be forecast accurately based on statistics, which enables the company to direct its attention towards the critical products. A forecast is always wrong; what matters is to understand how far wrong it is.

The impact of machine learning in demand forecasting

RELEX Solutions

The impact of machine learning in demand forecasting. At RELEX we live and breathe forecasting. At present we run about 10 billion forecast calculations daily, and 100 billion a week for our customers. The main area of use for demand forecasts is still managing the supply chain.