Automated Forecasting

Arkieva

A successful demand planning process accurately forecasts demand and revenue streams, and subsequently drives the next steps in the S&OP process which are Inventory, Supply Planning, and Optimization. Automated Forecasting was first posted on September 14, 2021 at 8:38 am. ©2017

Understanding ‘Forecastability’ and How to Generate Better Forecasts

CHAINalytics

Getting better statistical forecasts involves choosing the right technology, applying multiple forecast optimisation techniques, and a continuous improvement approach.

Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

How Forecastable is Your Data?

Arkieva

Having access to an accurate forecast is very beneficial for businesses. How Forecastable is Your Data? If used correctly, it can provide better margins, increase market shares, and many other positive results.

Improving Forecasts Through Advanced Data Science Approaches

CHAINalytics

Many businesses use traditional statistical forecasting methods in demand planning processes, and they are effective for most basic needs. But there are more advanced data science approaches which can improve the accuracy of forecasts and provide additional insight into their drivers.

How is Demand Forecasting changing? How do you compare to your peers?

AIMMS conducted research to assess how supply chain teams perceive the accuracy of their forecast and discover the tools and techniques they are using to upgrade the forecasting process. In this report, you will find helpful benchmarks and insights offered by your peers on the latest demand forecasting techniques, forecast granularity and periodicity, and expectations for the future.

Simplifying Probabilistic Forecasting

ToolsGroup

In episode nine of Be Ready for Anything, supply chain expert Stefan de Kok breaks down the basics of probabilistic forecasting. I’m your host, Mary Vasile, and today I’m delighted to welcome Stefan de Kok who is going to shed some light on probabilistic forecasting.

Probabilistic Planning and Forecasting Demystified

ToolsGroup

I have been blogging and advocating for the past 15 years on probabilistic approaches to planning and forecasting, and am happy to see in the last few years it has finally started gaining traction and attention. Time is horizontal, forecast quantity vertical.

Measuring Forecast Accuracy: Keeping Score on Keeping Score

CHAINalytics

Measuring forecast accuracy (FA) determines the degree to which an organization can accurately predict sales. High forecast accuracy leads to lower required inventory levels, fewer lost sales, and optimized working capital.

2022 Forecast: Supply Chains Become Critical Infrastructure

ToolsGroup

Here’s my forecast for what will progress this year against that vision: A major cloud provider – Google, Amazon, or Microsoft – will emerge as the dominant host of the open supply chain platform.

Melitta: Collaborating for an Improved Forecasting Process

ToolsGroup

Melitta Sales Europe (MSE) embarked on an initiative to revamp existing planning and forecasting processes to increase efficiency and sustainability. MSE’s prioritization of its close internal collaboration strengthens the precision of its forecasts, ensuring a more robust S&OP process.

Easily Build an Optimization App and Empower Your Data

Speaker: Gertjan de Lange

Solving complex business problems requires optimization modeling techniques and data to compare scenarios and make the best decisions. With AIMMS you can rapidly build an optimization app on top of your data and deploy it to the end-user in just a few clicks.

Don’t Forecast Demand, Model Your Demand

ToolsGroup

Demand modeling is different from demand forecasting. Simply put, it doesn’t forecast demand, it models demand. Forecasting typically starts with a time series of data—usually presented as a bar chart displaying demand by month or by week. Build a probabilistic demand forecast.

An Approach to Setting Forecast Accuracy Targets

Arkieva

Learn the best approach to setting forecast accuracy targets and how to set expectations for your management team. An Approach to Setting Forecast Accuracy Targets was first posted on August 25, 2021 at 8:38 am. ©2017

Going Beyond Historical Data for Forecast Accuracy

Arkieva

Our focus in this blog series has been to establish forecast accuracy targets. In very general terms, the goal should be to add value to the business through the forecasting process. Going Beyond Historical Data for Forecast Accuracy was first posted on October 25, 2021 at 7:59 am. ©2017

Your Demand Forecast Is Wrong. Here’s How to Fix It.

ToolsGroup

But many supply chain practitioners don’t realize that the most common approach to supply chain planning–using a demand-driven forecast as the primary input to future planning–is just as passé. Forecast Accuracy vs. Uncertainty. The Shifting View on Forecast Accuracy.

4 Reasons to Break Up With Excel and Move to Digital Supply Chain Planning

Trust your supply chain forecasts: adopt a predictive intelligence platform to outperform your supply chain goals, overcome challenges of spreadsheet-based planning, reduce risks, enhance customer satisfaction, and improve the bottom line.

Demand Planning: Differentiated Forecast Strategy

Arkieva

Some time ago, I had been trying to help a business improve its statistical forecasting. We tried different parameters and different forecasting algorithms but the statistical forecast for about half of the products could not be improved no matter what we tried.

Pyramid Forecasting Process

Arkieva

One of the many ways to improve the forecast is to forecast using a pyramid process, starting at the base, then forecasts the subsequent levels moving upwards. Pyramid Forecasting Process was first posted on November 2, 2021 at 7:48 am. ©2017

Relationship Between Forecast Accuracy and Safety Stocks

Arkieva

The cycle stock is the one most connected to the demand forecast; it is expected to be sold as the forecast becomes real demand. As such, it is not always linked to forecasting accuracy.

Time Series Forecasting Basics

Arkieva

In this blog we briefly cover some key insights for successful time series forecasting: (a) Profiling the Shape of the Curve is the first stage, and the first step is assessing if the time series is stationary. (b) Time Series Forecasting Basics was first posted on April 6, 2021 at 9:03 am. ©2017

5 Perceptions on Demand Forecasting and How it's Changing

Speaker: Brian Dooley, Director SC Navigator, AIMMS

It’s no secret that demand is getting more difficult to predict. Is your demand forecasting process evolving with the times? How does your process stack up against others? Are you satisfied with your level of forecast accuracy? This webinar shares research findings from a recent survey among supply chain planning professionals to help you answer these questions.

The Hippocratic Oath for Forecasters

Arkieva

Is there an equivalent to the Hippocratic Oath for forecasters? What harm(s) can a forecaster easily avoid? The Hippocratic Oath for Forecasters was first posted on May 10, 2022 at 9:02 am. ©2017 This blog explores some examples.

Causal Forecasting Brings Precision to your Forecasting

Logility

Causal f orecasting shines a light on , and isolates, actual demand signals from market “chatter,” thus improving forecast quality. What Exactly Is Causal Forecasting? . First, what it’s not is a replacement for demand forecasting.

Probabilistic Forecasting - a Primer

ToolsGroup

An experienced gambler might hedge their bet on multiple outcomes, rather than just the most likely "single number forecast". At ToolsGroup we have been big advocates of probabilistic forecasting (sometimes also known as stochastic forecasting). Understanding and employing this relatively simple principle can take your forecasting and supply chain planning from ‘good to great’. In this case, forecasting 100 units is a pretty safe bet.

Avoid Supply Chain Forecasting Errors

Blue Ridge

Learn where demand forecasting errors come from and how to avoid them with the proper tools. The post Avoid Supply Chain Forecasting Errors appeared first on Blogs, Whitepapers, News & Customer Success Stories from Blue Ridge. Blogs collaboration Demand Forecast Accuracy Demand Forecasting Demand Planning Forecast Error Forecasting Methods Recent

The Best Sales Forecasting Models for Weathering Your Goals

Every sales forecasting model has a different strength and predictability method. It’s recommended to test out the best one for your team so you’ll be able to enhance and optimize your newly-developed pipeline. Your future sales forecast? Sunny skies (and success) are just ahead!

Weather Permitting: How to Use Weather Data in Retail Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Despite knowing all this, too many retailers ignore the impact of weather and this adds error to plans and demand forecasts. Using weather data for retail forecasting starts with measuring the impact of weather for specific items, time period, and locations. Retail is detail.

Forecasting Over the Product Life Cycle

ToolsGroup

Demand forecasting is tough, and getting it right over the entire product lifecycle during the course of launch, maturation, and end-of-life is tougher still. New data sources and machine learning automation are also making improvements to forecasting the product life cycle.

SFaaS: Boost Your Team’s Performance With Statistical Forecasting as a Service

CHAINalytics

This blog post is the fourth part of a Chainalytics’ Integrated Demand … The post SFaaS: Boost Your Team’s Performance With Statistical Forecasting as a Service appeared first on Chainalytics. Outsourcing of supply chain operations has been a common practice for years.

FMCG Forecasting: Ice cream, chocolate & pregnancy….

Enchange Supply Chain Consultancy

Humour S&OP Forecasting & Demand Planning Sales Inventory Management & Stock ControlPlease bear with me for a while on this one; I will get to the Supply Chain stuff eventually.

Key Questions for a Successful Distribution Network

Speaker: Irina Rosca, Director of Supply Chain Operations, Helix

As we plan for the world of eCommerce and the customer expectation of quick, free shipping, our ability to forecast is turned on its head. How many distribution centers do we even need, and is that number feasible?

Thriving In ‘The New Normal’ With 5 Demand Forecasting Models

ThroughPut

Step Up Demand Planning Efforts with a Robust Forecasting Model . Demand forecasting can be a game changer in today’s volatile environment. AI-driven demand forecasting creates numerous benefits by consuming real-time data and continuously identifying new patterns.

Machine Learning and AI: Profiling Demand History – A Wiser Forecasting

Arkieva

In the simple version of supply chain management (SCM) the goal for demand forecasting in the tactical decision tier is prediction accuracy. Machine Learning and AI: Profiling Demand History – A Wiser Forecasting was first posted on August 5, 2020 at 8:11 am. ©2017

4 Aggregation Mistakes When Reporting Forecast Accuracy

Arkieva

It is important to measure and improve the forecast accuracy at the right level of aggregation. If you measure at too high a level, your accuracy picture will look better than what it needs to be as the data at high (aggregated) levels is more forecastable.

[PODCAST] Inventory Forecasting Lessons for Improved Supply Chain Network Optimization

GlobalTranz

Listen to “Inventory Forecasting Lessons for Improved Supply Chain Network Optimization” on Spreaker. The post [PODCAST] Inventory Forecasting Lessons for Improved Supply Chain Network Optimization appeared first on Transportation Management Company | Cerasis.

No More Hide & Seek for Supply Chain Uncertainty: How to Manage Variability

As unavoidable variability adds more complexity to your supply chain, this guide shares the effects of uncertainty on businesses and explores ways to alleviate uncertainty & increase manageability through greater forecast accuracy.

Can Improving Forecast Accuracy Address Our Demand Planning Woes?

Logistics Viewpoints

If “the forecast is always wrong,” is improving forecast accuracy even the solution to our demand planning woes? Why bother with forecasting if the model is always wrong? Sometimes I get asked if a company can leapfrog over statistical forecasting and just start with AI/ML.

Insight from Applied Statisticians for Forecasting: Is It Worth the Effort and the Mirage of Random Variation

Arkieva

Insight from Applied Statisticians for Forecasting: Is It Worth the Effort and the Mirage of Random Variation was first posted on October 14, 2020 at 8:09 am. ©2017

For Distributors, Mitigating Supply Uncertainty Begins with a Better Forecast

ToolsGroup

Accurate forecasting of uncertain demand. Probabilistic forecasting then produces a range of possible outcomes with probabilities assigned to all values within the range. It goes beyond the “demand forecast number” to the probability of demand in any given time period.

“Optimized” Inventory Forecasting a Co-Product of Optimized Central Planning

Arkieva

In a recent blog on Inventory Forecasting the core challenges and business importance of estimating inventory are outlined. Optimized” Inventory Forecasting a Co-Product of Optimized Central Planning was first posted on February 18, 2020 at 8:08 am. ©2017

Automated Order Processing and Proactive Inventory Management

Speaker: Irina Rosca, Director of Supply Chain Operations, Helix

Organizations need to focus on demand driven supply planning, utilizing real time information on customer orders from all marketplaces (e-commence, Amazon - or other online retailers, and point of sale data from brick and mortar). Focusing on this information once per month during the S&OP meeting is too late for all business units to align. Companies should have seamless integration between order entry, inventory management, forecasting and supply planning models and purchase order status to sense risk, pull levers to mitigate potential risk, and communicate within and outside the organization. This is especially important for new product releases, in store programs or promotions (sales, end caps, PDQ. etc) or online promotions (company run or 3rd party). Depending on total supply chain lead time, not having real time visibility and analysis of this information can significantly affect sales and the bottom line.