Probabilistic Forecasting: Right Fit for Your Business?

Supply Chain Shaman

A Closer Look at Forecasting. Traditionally companies forecast using history (shipments or orders) and applying linear regression to understand the patterns of historical demand using these to estimate future requirements in a time-series format. Understanding Probabilistic Forecasting.

Untangling the Complexities of Demand Forecasting

ModusLink Corporation

Whether facing a major product launch or compiling standard monthly forecasts, the accuracy of demand forecasts is crucial. The post Untangling the Complexities of Demand Forecasting appeared first on ModusLink Global Solutions.

How Not to use Machine Learning for Demand Forecasting


Eight years ago ToolsGroup was one of the first supply chain planning software vendors to employ machine learning to improve demand forecasting. Statistical forecasting approaches have others. Forecasting Demand and Analytics Machine Learning

Forecasting and demand management for new events using machine-learning algorithm

The 21st Century Supply Chain

When it comes to forecasting and demand management , a lot. For events like the Super Bowl, retail demand planners create forecasts using data from a variety of sources to adjust product demand profiles in anticipation of which product, or group of products might be in demand the most.

Machine Learning: A Quantum Leap in Forecast Accuracy for the Modern Supply Chain

Whether you realize it or not, Machine Learning is having a profound impact on your everyday life

Get your demand planning and forecasting game on

The 21st Century Supply Chain

The only way to do that is to have processes and technology that enable critical demand planning functionality like: Forecasting : Stop chasing that perfect score. The post Get your demand planning and forecasting game on appeared first on The 21st Century Supply Chain.

Simplify Supply Chain Forecasting


Is 100% forecast accuracy attainable? Anyone that has ever had to forecast demand for products or services knows that obtaining a consistently high forecast accuracy is part science and part magic. Clearly, forecast accuracy is very important.

Probabilistic Forecasting Can Extend the Life of SAP APO


Since the beginning of time – OK, since the beginning of demand forecasting the standard approach has been a single number forecast that works relatively well with stable high volume demand. Machine learning can refine the forecast by crunching external data.

A new frontier for forecast accuracy

The Network Effect

At some point most forecasting methods will hit the law of diminishing returns where the forecast accuracy will tend to flatten out, regardless of the formulae or analytics that are applied. The post A new frontier for forecast accuracy appeared first on The Network Effect.

Forecasting the Long Tail and Intermittent Demand


Forecasting demand in the long tail is much different than in the head. Companies are dealing with more slow moving items with unpredictable demand patterns, which is making demand forecasting and inventory management more difficult. The solution is not forecast accuracy.

Building a Business Case for Improved Demand Forecasting


I’ve always maintained that improving demand forecast accuracy, as helpful as it can be, shouldn’t be the end goal itself, but simply a means to the end. Gartner says that you shouldn’t just pitch forecast accuracy to your executive management, but translate your plan into business metrics.

Revisiting Transportation Forecasting

Talking Logistics

Many companies have collaborative planning and forecasting processes with suppliers and manufacturing partners, but very few companies translate demand and production forecasts into transportation capacity requirements. In this episode, Adrian discusses the key challenges and opportunities associated with transportation forecasting. Watch as Adrian discusses: Two key reasons why transportation forecasting has been a challenge to implement.

Seven Recent Trends in Retail Demand Forecasting and Replenishment


So it’s not surprising that many are looking for more accurate demand forecasting and intelligent stock replenishment. In a report entitled Market Guide for Retail Forecasting and Replenishment Solutions , Gartner analyst Mike Griswold spotlights seven recent trends in this area.

Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Demand Forecasting


Editor's Note: This is the second in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Demand forecasting software can usually factor in climate and seasonality , like more ice cream being sold during summer months or in warmer climates.

Benefit from Forecast Data in your Planograms

RELEX Solutions

One, however, seems to come up constantly “Can we use forecast data when making the planograms?”. The answer used to always be the same; “If you give us the forecast data at the weekly product-location level, then yes”. How to find a way to combine forecast and historical data?

Forecasting 101

Blue Ridge

What is a Forecast? A forecast is everything you’ve known, thought, or seen in the past, plus everything you believe will drive demand in the future. The trending signal is a percentage that describes the rate of momentum an item’s demand is moving away from the forecast.

Adventures in Forecasting in the Supply Chain

Supply Chain Opz

And no function is more at the forefront of that endeavor than demand forecasting. In order to do that, forward planning is key, and accurate forecasts are a critical input. Given that demand can change every day, forecasting becomes the ultimate adventure.

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting


This explains also why supply chain planners struggle to improve their forecasts and end up hitting a ceiling. The increase of demand volatility in today’s markets explains why supply chain leaders tend to believe that their primary supply chain problem is forecast accuracy.

Summoning the Courage to Redefine Forecasting: Upending the Apple Cart

Supply Chain Shaman

And, even if we can afford the costs, we don’t get good answers with our current forecasting processes,” stated the supply chain leader on the phone. Inherently, business leaders know that traditional forecasting processes are inadequate. Cognitive computing/machine learning can redefine decision support/forecasting processes. With the focus on growth, new product launch and forecasting special items increases in importance.

The Forecasting Conundrum


I have heard a number of supply chain professionals proclaim that their companies should stop forecasting product demand due to poor forecast accuracy. However, what is often overlooked is that moving to a pull strategy does not eliminate the need for a forecast.

Forecast Accuracy: Keep Your Demand Management Process Honest

The 21st Century Supply Chain

Lange, Director of Demand Planning and S&OP Services at Celestica, examines forecast accuracy and the main components of a demand management measurement tool and process. Reporting Forecast Accuracy. While calculating forecast accuracy is important, it’s not enough.

A Better Way to Approach Forecast Accuracy Improvements


By Jaime Reints | Director, Demand Planning Intelligence Consortium (DPIC) | Chainalytics Forecasting demand can be one of the more difficult parts of managing an effective supply chain.

Best Practices in Weather-based Sales Forecasting

RELEX Solutions

In my recently written whitepaper you’ll find out how retailers can optimally prepare for weather-related fluctuations , but in order to understand the basics, I’ve gathered some best practices in weather-based sales forecasting: 1. What is a Good Level of Forecast Accuracy?

Powering Your Digital Supply Chain: Forecasting Returns

Supply Chain Nation

This creates an interesting problem for both retailers and manufacturers that sell online: in addition to predicting a customer’s original order, manufacturers and retailers need to be able to forecast expected returns. Streamlined returns management starts with an advanced ability to forecast returns, which is not an easy problem to solve. Have you ever ordered something online and then decided to return it? You’re not alone.

RELEX’s forecasting approaches

RELEX Solutions

RELEX’s forecasting approaches. Technology has transformed forecasting, enabling us to process unfathomable quantities of data and draw conclusions with an unprecedented degree of accuracy. Nevertheless, in retail forecasting, one needs good foundations. Demand Forecastin

How Does a Demand Forecast of Zero Impact Your Forecast Accuracy?


For most businesses that rely on demand forecasts for supply and capacity planning, improving demand forecast accuracy is critical. There are many methods to measure forecast bias and the accuracy of supply chain forecasts including using statistical methods like the Mean Absolute Percent Error or MAPE that we’ve discussed in our previous blogs. How Does a Demand Forecast of Zero Impact Your Forecast Accuracy?

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting – Part 2


Here is one straightforward opportunity to focus on in the near future: Migrate away from top-down demand forecasting. When it comes to long-tail items, forecasting metrics such as WMAPE become almost meaningless or even misleading.

Why CPG Demand Forecasting Has Hit a Ceiling


Most CPG companies have hit a demand forecasting ceiling. And complexity creates a challenge of how to forecast accurately when faced with new items, new channels and demand shaping. Many CPG companies are at a loss on what to work on to improve these forecasts.

Powering Your Digital Supply Chain: Attribute-Based Forecasting – Part 5

Supply Chain Nation

This has made reliable demand forecasting even more difficult. Supply Chain Supply Chain Management attribute-based forecasting demand forecasting digital supply chain manufacturing retailToday, across almost every category, products have more features and attributes than those available just a few years ago.

Demand Forecasting: The Art and Science That Keeps You Guessing


“It is said that the present is pregnant with the future” – Voltaire Forecasting, therefore, is an attempt to deduce the future from the present. We will explore the practice of forecasting demand in the short to medium term. Within the constraints of economic and technology trends, demand forecasting drives the planning process in most businesses. Demand Forecasting: The Art and Science That Keeps You Guessing was first posted on May 3, 2017 at 12:56 pm. ©2017

A 5-Step Guide to Improving Your Statistical Forecast Technique


Statistical forecasts are often used as the baseline forecast for demand planning. Due to this reason, statistical forecast accuracy is critical to improving the entire demand planning process. Use this easy step by step statistical forecast technique guide to help you get started with improving your forecasts. A 5-Step Guide to Improving Your Statistical Forecast Technique was first posted on May 10, 2017 at 8:07 am. ©2017

Market Update: Seasonal Freight Surge and Consumer Forecast

PLS Logistics

Adobe Digital Intelligence says that 31% of consumers start shopping before November 1, and 27% will start before Thanksgiving, so the supply chain plans for the holiday season for months and months in advance.

We compared the Accuracy of 4 Different Demand Forecasting Methods; Here’s What We Found.


Over the past few months, we’ve been running simulation tests on different demand forecasting methods: Winter’s additive & multiplicative, seasonal and robust seasonal. Then, we used MAPE to determine the forecast accuracy for each method. We compared the Accuracy of 4 Different Demand Forecasting Methods; Here’s What We Found.

What-if Wednesday: Seasonal Model Forecasting with Seasonal Methods


What-if Wednesday: Seasonal Model Forecasting with Seasonal Methods was first posted on July 5, 2017 at 2:50 pm. ©2017 Forecasting forecasting methods and methods forecasting with seasonality and trend seasonal model forecasting types of forecasting models winters method forecastingSeasonal method is a regression method that fits a linear trend along with sine and cosine curves.

Five Ways Machine Learning Can Improve Demand Forecasting


When it comes to demand forecasting , machine learning can be especially helpful in complex scenarios, allowing planners to do a much better job of forecasting difficult situations. But capturing this behavior is critical to producing an accurate forecast.

Why SAP APO Can’t Forecast Demand in Complex Environments


SAP APO is not equipped to address today’s supply chain challenges and that makes demand forecasting and supply chain planning more cumbersome and off target with APO or similar tools. APO’s“Top-Down” Demand Forecasting. Finally, ‘noise’ is not forecastable.