Probabilistic Forecasting - a Primer

ToolsGroup

An experienced gambler might hedge their bet on multiple outcomes, rather than just the most likely "single number forecast". At ToolsGroup we have been big advocates of probabilistic forecasting (sometimes also known as stochastic forecasting).

Probabilistic Forecasting: Right Fit for Your Business?

Supply Chain Shaman

A Closer Look at Forecasting. Traditionally companies forecast using history (shipments or orders) and applying linear regression to understand the patterns of historical demand using these to estimate future requirements in a time-series format. Understanding Probabilistic Forecasting.

How to Measure Forecast Errors in Intermittent Demand Forecasting

Arkieva

Stop using traditional forecast accuracy metrics to measure forecast for sporadic demand patterns. How to Measure Forecast Errors in Intermittent Demand Forecasting was first posted on March 19, 2019 at 12:19 pm. ©2017 Use this method instead. ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only. If you are not reading this article in your feed reader, then the site is guilty of copyright infringement.

Untangling the Complexities of Demand Forecasting

ModusLink Corporation

Whether facing a major product launch or compiling standard monthly forecasts, the accuracy of demand forecasts is crucial. The post Untangling the Complexities of Demand Forecasting appeared first on ModusLink Global Solutions.

Machine Learning: A Quantum Leap in Forecast Accuracy for the Modern Supply Chain

Whether you realize it or not, Machine Learning is having a profound impact on your everyday life

Forecasting: Let’s Start by Asking the Right Questions

Supply Chain Shaman

This is especially true for forecasting. I find that too many companies try to buy forecasting software through a Request For Proposal (RFP). How forecastable is your product set? What is your Forecast Value Add (FVA) by product segment? Ten calls.

What’s Your Forecast Accuracy Target for 2017?

ToolsGroup

In 2016, it seemed as if everyone in supply chain was looking to improve their forecasting performance. How much can you realistically expect to improve your forecast accuracy each year? Forecasting Demand and Analytics

What’s Your Forecast Accuracy Target for 2019?

ToolsGroup

Editor’s Note: Two years ago we posted a blog about how to set an annual forecast accuracy target and it was one of our most popular topics. Many companies have already started their 2019 planning and budgeting cycles, so if you are in charge of demand forecasting for your company, it’s about time to thinking about your organization's 2019 goals. It seems as if everyone is looking to improve their forecasting performance. Forecasting Demand and Analytics

How Not to use Machine Learning for Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Eight years ago ToolsGroup was one of the first supply chain planning software vendors to employ machine learning to improve demand forecasting. Statistical forecasting approaches have others. Forecasting Demand and Analytics Machine Learning

Trade promotion forecasting: the present and the near future

ToolsGroup

Trade promotion forecasting is difficult: getting it right involves factoring in many variables. Forecasting demand data, not so much. To do this, the first hurdle is creating a good statistical baseline forecast.

Key Questions for a Successful Distribution Network

Speaker: Irina Rosca, Director of Supply Chain Operations, Helix

As we plan for the world of eCommerce and the customer expectation of quick, free shipping, our ability to forecast is turned on its head. How many distribution centers do we even need, and is that number feasible?

Building a Business Case for Improved Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

I’ve always maintained that improving demand forecast accuracy, as helpful as it can be, shouldn’t be the end goal itself, but simply a means to the end. Gartner says that you shouldn’t just pitch forecast accuracy to your executive management, but translate your plan into business metrics.

Probabilistic Forecasting Can Extend the Life of SAP APO

ToolsGroup

Since the beginning of time – OK, since the beginning of demand forecasting the standard approach has been a single number forecast that works relatively well with stable high volume demand. Machine learning can refine the forecast by crunching external data.

Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Editor's Note: This is the second in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Demand forecasting software can usually factor in climate and seasonality , like more ice cream being sold during summer months or in warmer climates.

Selecting the Appropriate Types Forecasting Methods

Arkieva

Selecting the right forecasting methods can be highly critical in how accurate your forecasts are. Unfortunately, there isn’t a golden ticket to forecasting which can essentially ensure accuracy. While the best-fit forecasting method is dependent on a business’ specific situation, understanding the types of forecasting methods can aid in your decision-making. Selecting the Appropriate Types Forecasting Methods was first posted on November 27, 2018 at 8:29 am. ©2017

Automated Order Processing and Proactive Inventory Management

Speaker: Irina Rosca, Director of Supply Chain Operations, Helix

Companies should have seamless integration between order entry, inventory management, forecasting and supply planning models and purchase order status to sense risk, pull levers to mitigate potential risk, and communicate within and outside the organization.

Why SAP APO Can’t Forecast Demand in Complex Environments

ToolsGroup

SAP APO is not equipped to address today’s supply chain challenges and that makes demand forecasting and supply chain planning more cumbersome and off target with APO or similar tools. APO’s“Top-Down” Demand Forecasting. Finally, ‘noise’ is not forecastable.

A new frontier for forecast accuracy

The Network Effect

At some point most forecasting methods will hit the law of diminishing returns where the forecast accuracy will tend to flatten out, regardless of the formulae or analytics that are applied. The post A new frontier for forecast accuracy appeared first on The Network Effect.

How to Forecast Demand for New Products

Arkieva

However, a new product launch poses a totally new challenge – new product forecasting. How to Forecast Demand for New Products was first posted on January 23, 2019 at 2:24 pm. ©2017 Organizations need to regularly upgrade their products and launch new products to stay competitive and grow their businesses. ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only.

Common Forecasting Myths Debunked – Part 1 – One Forecast is Enough

Logility

This is the first of a series of four posts that will explore common forecasting myths. In supply chain the impact of a single error can quickly derail an entire forecast. Many companies believe that once a forecast is created success will follow throughout the product life cycle.

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

This explains also why supply chain planners struggle to improve their forecasts and end up hitting a ceiling. The increase of demand volatility in today’s markets explains why supply chain leaders tend to believe that their primary supply chain problem is forecast accuracy.

Seven Recent Trends in Retail Demand Forecasting and Replenishment

ToolsGroup

So it’s not surprising that many are looking for more accurate demand forecasting and intelligent stock replenishment. In a report entitled Market Guide for Retail Forecasting and Replenishment Solutions , Gartner analyst Mike Griswold spotlights seven recent trends in this area.

Why CPG Demand Forecasting Has Hit a Ceiling

ToolsGroup

Most CPG companies have hit a demand forecasting ceiling. And complexity creates a challenge of how to forecast accurately when faced with new items, new channels and demand shaping. Many CPG companies are at a loss on what to work on to improve these forecasts.

Forecasting the Long Tail and Intermittent Demand

ToolsGroup

Forecasting demand in the long tail is much different than in the head. Companies are dealing with more slow moving items with unpredictable demand patterns, which is making demand forecasting and inventory management more difficult. The solution is not forecast accuracy.

How Demand Forecasting Helps You Manage Inventory

AFFLINK

As businesses scale, they need to investigate the accuracy of their inventory management and forecasting processes. Demand forecasting goes beyond simple estimates of product demand, looking into complex patterns over time to produce more accurate and timely predictions.

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting – Part 2

ToolsGroup

Here is one straightforward opportunity to focus on in the near future: Migrate away from top-down demand forecasting. When it comes to long-tail items, forecasting metrics such as WMAPE become almost meaningless or even misleading.

Reliable forecasting is a piece of cake

Supply Chain Movement

In our attempts to anticipate future changes in demand, we often depend on forecasts. According to a well-known saying, ‘forecasting is difficult, especially about the future,’ and this is sometimes extended along the lines of ‘especially when it’s about details’.

Revisiting Transportation Forecasting

Talking Logistics

Many companies have collaborative planning and forecasting processes with suppliers and manufacturing partners, but very few companies translate demand and production forecasts into transportation capacity requirements. In this episode, Adrian discusses the key challenges and opportunities associated with transportation forecasting. Watch as Adrian discusses: Two key reasons why transportation forecasting has been a challenge to implement.

Why is Demand Forecasting important for effective Supply Chain Management?

Arkieva

Demand forecasting forms an essential component of the supply chain process. While demand forecasting is undeniably important, it’s also one of the most difficult aspects of supply chain planning. Why is Demand Forecasting important for effective Supply Chain Management? It’s the driver for almost all supply chain related decisions. was first posted on September 18, 2018 at 11:58 am. ©2017

Everything You Need to Know About Demand Forecasting

Arkieva

What is Demand Forecasting? Demand Forecasting is the process in which the historical sales data is used to develop an estimate of expected forecast of customer demand. Everything You Need to Know About Demand Forecasting was first posted on July 17, 2018 at 8:16 am. ©2017 ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only.

Which Statistical Forecasting Methods Should I Use?

Arkieva

Here are some guidelines on selecting the right statistical forecasting methods for your business. Which Statistical Forecasting Methods Should I Use? Forecasting 4 basic types of forecasting business forecasting methods forecasting examples forecasting methods pdf quantitative forecasting methods statistical forecasting definition techniques of forecasting in management time series forecasting methods

Here’s What’s Wrong with Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Since there will be a week off between posts, we wanted to forgo the fluff in most year-end blogs and leave you with a deep philosophical thought to ponder while on your holiday break, and it’s this: Maybe you are doing your demand forecasting completely wrong. Consider a weather forecast.

Using Demand Planning Statistical Models to Enhance Your Sales Forecasts

Arkieva

How to use demand planning statistical models to enhance the value of your sales input during the forecasting process. Using Demand Planning Statistical Models to Enhance Your Sales Forecasts was first posted on September 5, 2018 at 12:27 pm. ©2017 ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only. If you are not reading this article in your feed reader, then the site is guilty of copyright infringement.

Sales Forecasting Unchecked – A Supply Chain Nightmare!

Supply Chain Game Changer

The Planning and Budget cycle within most companies must start with a forecast of future sales and revenue. The Sales and Marketing team is usually responsible for pulling that forecast together. What Happens When Forecasts Are Wrong? Forecasts are generally notoriously wrong.

Demand Forecasting Analytical Methods: Fit Vs. Predict

Arkieva

How to determine when to use a best-fit analysis and when to use prediction techniques for demand forecasting analysis. Demand Forecasting Analytical Methods: Fit Vs. Predict was first posted on October 10, 2018 at 11:45 am. ©2017 ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only. If you are not reading this article in your feed reader, then the site is guilty of copyright infringement.

Five Ways Machine Learning Can Improve Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

When it comes to demand forecasting , machine learning can be especially helpful in complex scenarios, allowing planners to do a much better job of forecasting difficult situations. But capturing this behavior is critical to producing an accurate forecast.

Summoning the Courage to Redefine Forecasting: Upending the Apple Cart

Supply Chain Shaman

And, even if we can afford the costs, we don’t get good answers with our current forecasting processes,” stated the supply chain leader on the phone. Inherently, business leaders know that traditional forecasting processes are inadequate. Cognitive computing/machine learning can redefine decision support/forecasting processes. With the focus on growth, new product launch and forecasting special items increases in importance.