Probabilistic Forecasting - a Primer

ToolsGroup

An experienced gambler might hedge their bet on multiple outcomes, rather than just the most likely "single number forecast". At ToolsGroup we have been big advocates of probabilistic forecasting (sometimes also known as stochastic forecasting).

Untangling the Complexities of Demand Forecasting

ModusLink Corporation

Whether facing a major product launch or compiling standard monthly forecasts, the accuracy of demand forecasts is crucial. The post Untangling the Complexities of Demand Forecasting appeared first on ModusLink Global Solutions.

Demand Forecasting Analytical Methods: Fit Vs. Predict

Arkieva

How to determine when to use a best-fit analysis and when to use prediction techniques for demand forecasting analysis. Demand Forecasting Analytical Methods: Fit Vs. Predict was first posted on October 10, 2018 at 11:45 am. ©2017 ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only. If you are not reading this article in your feed reader, then the site is guilty of copyright infringement.

Using Demand Planning Statistical Models to Enhance Your Sales Forecasts

Arkieva

How to use demand planning statistical models to enhance the value of your sales input during the forecasting process. Using Demand Planning Statistical Models to Enhance Your Sales Forecasts was first posted on September 5, 2018 at 12:27 pm. ©2017 ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only. If you are not reading this article in your feed reader, then the site is guilty of copyright infringement.

Machine Learning: A Quantum Leap in Forecast Accuracy for the Modern Supply Chain

Whether you realize it or not, Machine Learning is having a profound impact on your everyday life

Common Forecasting Myths Debunked – Part 1 – One Forecast is Enough

Logility

This is the first of a series of four posts that will explore common forecasting myths. In supply chain the impact of a single error can quickly derail an entire forecast. Many companies believe that once a forecast is created success will follow throughout the product life cycle.

Why is Demand Forecasting important for effective Supply Chain Management?

Arkieva

Demand forecasting forms an essential component of the supply chain process. While demand forecasting is undeniably important, it’s also one of the most difficult aspects of supply chain planning. Why is Demand Forecasting important for effective Supply Chain Management? It’s the driver for almost all supply chain related decisions. was first posted on September 18, 2018 at 11:58 am. ©2017

What’s Your Forecast Accuracy Target for 2017?

ToolsGroup

In 2016, it seemed as if everyone in supply chain was looking to improve their forecasting performance. How much can you realistically expect to improve your forecast accuracy each year? Forecasting Demand and Analytics

How Not to use Machine Learning for Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Eight years ago ToolsGroup was one of the first supply chain planning software vendors to employ machine learning to improve demand forecasting. Statistical forecasting approaches have others. Forecasting Demand and Analytics Machine Learning

Everything You Need to Know About Demand Forecasting

Arkieva

What is Demand Forecasting? Demand Forecasting is the process in which the historical sales data is used to develop an estimate of expected forecast of customer demand. Everything You Need to Know About Demand Forecasting was first posted on July 17, 2018 at 8:16 am. ©2017 ©2017 " Supply Chain Link Blog - Arkieva " Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only.

Get more “aha” moments in your S&OP Meetings

plan based on sales forecasts. forecasting, supply and capacity planning and. For instance, commercial stakeholders may want to update their forecast while they're on the. Sales & Operations Industry Report How the right enabling technology. helps you improve margins and.

Which Statistical Forecasting Methods Should I Use?

Arkieva

Here are some guidelines on selecting the right statistical forecasting methods for your business. Which Statistical Forecasting Methods Should I Use? Forecasting 4 basic types of forecasting business forecasting methods forecasting examples forecasting methods pdf quantitative forecasting methods statistical forecasting definition techniques of forecasting in management time series forecasting methods

Trade promotion forecasting: the present and the near future

ToolsGroup

Trade promotion forecasting is difficult: getting it right involves factoring in many variables. Forecasting demand data, not so much. To do this, the first hurdle is creating a good statistical baseline forecast.

Probabilistic Forecasting: Right Fit for Your Business?

Supply Chain Shaman

A Closer Look at Forecasting. Traditionally companies forecast using history (shipments or orders) and applying linear regression to understand the patterns of historical demand using these to estimate future requirements in a time-series format. Understanding Probabilistic Forecasting.

Probabilistic Forecasting Can Extend the Life of SAP APO

ToolsGroup

Since the beginning of time – OK, since the beginning of demand forecasting the standard approach has been a single number forecast that works relatively well with stable high volume demand. Machine learning can refine the forecast by crunching external data.

Removing the 3 Barriers to Building a Predictive Supply Chain

But forecasting capabilities remain archaic and projections are inaccurate. forecasting doesn’t increase the predictive accuracy or intelligence. Manual forecasting is a job. on an astounding amount of guesswork and approximations to forecast and plan.

Building a Business Case for Improved Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

I’ve always maintained that improving demand forecast accuracy, as helpful as it can be, shouldn’t be the end goal itself, but simply a means to the end. Gartner says that you shouldn’t just pitch forecast accuracy to your executive management, but translate your plan into business metrics.

Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Editor's Note: This is the second in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Demand forecasting software can usually factor in climate and seasonality , like more ice cream being sold during summer months or in warmer climates.

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

This explains also why supply chain planners struggle to improve their forecasts and end up hitting a ceiling. The increase of demand volatility in today’s markets explains why supply chain leaders tend to believe that their primary supply chain problem is forecast accuracy.

Seven Recent Trends in Retail Demand Forecasting and Replenishment

ToolsGroup

So it’s not surprising that many are looking for more accurate demand forecasting and intelligent stock replenishment. In a report entitled Market Guide for Retail Forecasting and Replenishment Solutions , Gartner analyst Mike Griswold spotlights seven recent trends in this area.

Real time analytics for your S&OP Meetings?

plan based on sales forecasts. forecasting, supply and capacity planning and. For instance, commercial stakeholders may want to update their forecast while they're on the. Sales & Operations Industry Report How the right enabling technology. helps you improve margins and.

Forecasting: Let’s Start by Asking the Right Questions

Supply Chain Shaman

This is especially true for forecasting. I find that too many companies try to buy forecasting software through a Request For Proposal (RFP). How forecastable is your product set? What is your Forecast Value Add (FVA) by product segment? Ten calls.

Why SAP APO Can’t Forecast Demand in Complex Environments

ToolsGroup

SAP APO is not equipped to address today’s supply chain challenges and that makes demand forecasting and supply chain planning more cumbersome and off target with APO or similar tools. APO’s“Top-Down” Demand Forecasting. Finally, ‘noise’ is not forecastable.

A new frontier for forecast accuracy

The Network Effect

At some point most forecasting methods will hit the law of diminishing returns where the forecast accuracy will tend to flatten out, regardless of the formulae or analytics that are applied. The post A new frontier for forecast accuracy appeared first on The Network Effect.

Forecasting the Long Tail and Intermittent Demand

ToolsGroup

Forecasting demand in the long tail is much different than in the head. Companies are dealing with more slow moving items with unpredictable demand patterns, which is making demand forecasting and inventory management more difficult. The solution is not forecast accuracy.

Your Supply Chain Probably Has a Data Problem - Start There

make better decisions regarding everything from forecasting supply and. A Blueprint For Supply Chain Transformation The Data First Approach Introduction Over the past few decades, supply chains have evolved from a sub-function.

What is Statistical Forecasting? A snowfall-based explanation

Arkieva

What is Statistical Forecasting? Forecasting 4 basic types of forecasting forecasting tools quantitative forecasting techniques statistical forecasting methods techniques of forecasting in management types of forecasting types of forecasting in business what is forecasting in operations management

Why CPG Demand Forecasting Has Hit a Ceiling

ToolsGroup

Most CPG companies have hit a demand forecasting ceiling. And complexity creates a challenge of how to forecast accurately when faced with new items, new channels and demand shaping. Many CPG companies are at a loss on what to work on to improve these forecasts.

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting – Part 2

ToolsGroup

Here is one straightforward opportunity to focus on in the near future: Migrate away from top-down demand forecasting. When it comes to long-tail items, forecasting metrics such as WMAPE become almost meaningless or even misleading.

Do Returns Impact My Forecast Error Calculation Negatively?

Arkieva

Should you factor returns in your forecast error calculation? In this article, we’ll use a sample data set, to demonstrate if you should consider returns when calculating your forecast errors. Do Returns Impact My Forecast Error Calculation Negatively? Forecasting forecast accuracy kpi forecast bias calculation Forecast error calculation how to calculate mape in excel measuring forecast accuracy best practices types of forecasting errors what is a good mape

Forecast Accuracy: Keep Your Demand Management Process Honest

The 21st Century Supply Chain

Lange, Director of Demand Planning and S&OP Services at Celestica, examines forecast accuracy and the main components of a demand management measurement tool and process. Reporting Forecast Accuracy. While calculating forecast accuracy is important, it’s not enough.

Forecasting and demand management for new events using machine-learning algorithm

The 21st Century Supply Chain

When it comes to forecasting and demand management , a lot. For events like the Super Bowl, retail demand planners create forecasts using data from a variety of sources to adjust product demand profiles in anticipation of which product, or group of products might be in demand the most.

Can Demand Segmentation Improve Your Statistical Forecast?

Arkieva

One of the not so envious tasks for this person would be to generate statistical forecast for all these combinations. These days, the statistical forecasting tools available on the market can forecast these combinations using a list of forecasting methods and figure out which method works best for a particular combination. Can Demand Segmentation Improve Your Statistical Forecast? Imagine a demand planner working with 10,000 unique combinations.

Here’s What’s Wrong with Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Since there will be a week off between posts, we wanted to forgo the fluff in most year-end blogs and leave you with a deep philosophical thought to ponder while on your holiday break, and it’s this: Maybe you are doing your demand forecasting completely wrong. Consider a weather forecast.

Five Ways Machine Learning Can Improve Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

When it comes to demand forecasting , machine learning can be especially helpful in complex scenarios, allowing planners to do a much better job of forecasting difficult situations. But capturing this behavior is critical to producing an accurate forecast.

How Smarter Businesses Plan to Forecast Demand

Unleashed

When many businesses forecast demand, even the most studious companies will not get it 100 percent accurate, instead of perfection, the focus should be on minimising errors. Planning is one of the core functions of supply chain management that can help minimise errors and thus increase the accuracy of forecasting demand. Here we give you the top emerging best practices in demand planning that help to forecast demand better. Measure forecast accuracy at different levels.