What’s Your Forecast Accuracy Target for 2017?


In 2016, it seemed as if everyone in supply chain was looking to improve their forecasting performance. How much can you realistically expect to improve your forecast accuracy each year? Forecasting Demand and Analytics

Simplify Supply Chain Forecasting


Is 100% forecast accuracy attainable? Anyone that has ever had to forecast demand for products or services knows that obtaining a consistently high forecast accuracy is part science and part magic. Clearly, forecast accuracy is very important.

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A new frontier for forecast accuracy

The Network Effect

At some point most forecasting methods will hit the law of diminishing returns where the forecast accuracy will tend to flatten out, regardless of the formulae or analytics that are applied. The post A new frontier for forecast accuracy appeared first on The Network Effect.

Five Ways Machine Learning Can Improve Demand Forecasting


When it comes to demand forecasting , machine learning can be especially helpful in complex scenarios, allowing planners to do a much better job of forecasting difficult situations. But capturing this behavior is critical to producing an accurate forecast.

Machine Learning: A Quantum Leap in Forecast Accuracy for the Modern Supply Chain

Whether you realize it or not, Machine Learning is having a profound impact on your everyday life

Why CPG Demand Forecasting Has Hit a Ceiling


Most CPG companies have hit a demand forecasting ceiling. And complexity creates a challenge of how to forecast accurately when faced with new items, new channels and demand shaping. Many CPG companies are at a loss on what to work on to improve these forecasts.

A Better Way to Approach Forecast Accuracy Improvements


By Jaime Reints | Director, Demand Planning Intelligence Consortium (DPIC) | Chainalytics Forecasting demand can be one of the more difficult parts of managing an effective supply chain.

Why the Forecast for Supply Chain Planning has been Only Partly Cloudy


Cloud-based supply chain planning is gaining traction. Each year more users opt for cloud-based systems and there is a lot of support in the analyst community.

Forecast Accuracy: Keep Your Demand Management Process Honest

The 21st Century Supply Chain

Lange, Director of Demand Planning and S&OP Services at Celestica, examines forecast accuracy and the main components of a demand management measurement tool and process. Reporting Forecast Accuracy. While calculating forecast accuracy is important, it’s not enough.

What’s missing from your demand forecasting?


‘We already have sophisticated demand forecasting. While I agree that sophisticated demand forecasting and analytics are necessary, they aren’t sufficient. Many organizations have invested in powerful demand forecasting tools and centralized planning.

The Statistical Forecasting Conundrum

Blue Ridge

No other component gets more attention and, dare I say, abuse than the forecast itself. When we run out of stock or miss service levels, it’s the forecast that takes the blame. When we are overstocked, it’s because the forecast is too high. View From The Ridge: 50. April 8, 2016.

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting


This explains also why supply chain planners struggle to improve their forecasts and end up hitting a ceiling. The increase of demand volatility in today’s markets explains why supply chain leaders tend to believe that their primary supply chain problem is forecast accuracy.

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting – Part 2


Here is one straightforward opportunity to focus on in the near future: Migrate away from top-down demand forecasting. When it comes to long-tail items, forecasting metrics such as WMAPE become almost meaningless or even misleading.

Heard It through the Grapevine? Now Your Demand Forecasting Can Too


Editor's Note: This is the third in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Part Two of the series, on Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Forecasting , can be found here. Forecasting Demand and Analytics

Why SAP APO Can’t Forecast Demand in Complex Environments


SAP APO is not equipped to address today’s supply chain challenges and that makes demand forecasting and supply chain planning more cumbersome and off target with APO or similar tools. APO’s“Top-Down” Demand Forecasting. Finally, ‘noise’ is not forecastable.

Forecasting in a Shelf-Connected Supply Network

The Network Effect

Today I want to discuss how new approaches to forecasting processes are required in a shelf-connected world. . With this more accurate forecast, retailers can improve on-shelf availability, increase sales, reduce days of supply, and decrease overall supply chain costs.

Sennheiser’s five wisdoms about forecasting

Supply Chain Movement

Sennheiser has discovered that the large majority of its products can be forecast accurately based on statistics, which enables the company to direct its attention towards the critical products. A forecast is always wrong; what matters is to understand how far wrong it is.

Who wants to become a demand-forecasting expert? (Part 1)


Till the moment comes when we can just buckle in and set the dial to 10 years from now, we need to equip ourselves with the right tools and skills to forecast for the future. Improving your demand forecast is one of the best things you can do for your sales and operations planning.

RELEX’s forecasting approaches

RELEX Solutions

RELEX’s forecasting approaches. Technology has transformed forecasting, enabling us to process unfathomable quantities of data and draw conclusions with an unprecedented degree of accuracy. Nevertheless, in retail forecasting, one needs good foundations. Demand Forecastin

Forecasting: A Forgotten Requirement

Logistics Viewpoints

A few months ago, I attended the ToolsGroup Supply Chain Transformation conference in Boston. I am always interested in case study presentations, as I find that I learn a lot about how companies are applying their technology and business processes to solve a problem. These case studies are also an opportunity to give other practitioners a different way to look at a problem they may be experiencing as well. One of the case study presentations […

Market Update: Seasonal Freight Surge and Consumer Forecast

PLS Logistics

Adobe Digital Intelligence says that 31% of consumers start shopping before November 1, and 27% will start before Thanksgiving, so the supply chain plans for the holiday season for months and months in advance.

Forecasting noise disturbs the S&OP process

Supply Chain Movement

Forecasting is a challenge for many companies. A clearly defined process, committed sales people, collaboration with customers and timely scheduling of activities all contribute to a better forecast. Right at the top of the list is forecast accuracy, which ranks as much as 4.6

Forecasting 101

Blue Ridge

What is a Forecast? A forecast is everything you’ve known, thought, or seen in the past, plus everything you believe will drive demand in the future. The trending signal is a percentage that describes the rate of momentum an item’s demand is moving away from the forecast.

Demand Forecasting: The Art and Science That Keeps You Guessing


“It is said that the present is pregnant with the future” – Voltaire Forecasting, therefore, is an attempt to deduce the future from the present. We will explore the practice of forecasting demand in the short to medium term. Within the constraints of economic and technology trends, demand forecasting drives the planning process in most businesses. Demand Forecasting: The Art and Science That Keeps You Guessing was first posted on May 3, 2017 at 12:56 pm. ©2017

Pernod Ricard Drinks to Better Demand Forecasts

Supply Chain Movement

Pernod Ricard, owner of brands such as Absolut, Campo Viejo, Malibu and Jameson, has made substantial improvements in demand forecast accuracy using Infor Demand Planning. All of that begins with better demand forecast accuracy.

Is Statistical Forecasting Making Your Demand Plan Better or Worse?


But the demand planning phase is typically the most challenging, since … The post Is Statistical Forecasting Making Your Demand Plan Better or Worse? Blog Demand Planning Intelligence Consortium Integrated Demand & Supply Planning What's New Analytics Chainalytics Demand Planning Forecasting Pekka Hakkinen S&OP Sales & Operations Planning Statistical Forecasting

Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Demand Forecasting


Editor's Note: This is the second in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Demand forecasting software can usually factor in climate and seasonality , like more ice cream being sold during summer months or in warmer climates.

The Future of Supply Chain Demand Forecasting

Enterra Insights

Forecasting is an ‘inexact science’,” writes Keith Peterson (@KPeteHalo), President and CEO of Halo, “that relies on the data available … Continued. The post The Future of Supply Chain Demand Forecasting appeared first on Enterra Solutions.

Should We Forget About the Forecast? Supply Chain Interview Series

The 21st Century Supply Chain

Instead of pinning the tail on the forecaster, try rewarding forecast accuracy

Demand Solutions

The brand new Demand Solutions e-book: 42 Principles of Forecasting provides practical and actionable tips for how any company can improve its forecasting process. One of my responsibilities as director of marketing was to provide our plant manager with sales forecasts. The forecasts were actually produced by three people who worked for me. On the first business day of each month, our forecasting software provided initial projections for each of the next 12 months.

A 5-Step Guide to Improving Your Statistical Forecast Technique


Statistical forecasts are often used as the baseline forecast for demand planning. Due to this reason, statistical forecast accuracy is critical to improving the entire demand planning process. Use this easy step by step statistical forecast technique guide to help you get started with improving your forecasts. A 5-Step Guide to Improving Your Statistical Forecast Technique was first posted on May 10, 2017 at 8:07 am. ©2017

Why Forecast Accuracy Alone Can’t Solve Service Level Problems


In recent blogs we’ve discussed the importance of forecast accuracy. But forecast accuracy alone can’t solve inventory issues—particularly in the long tail where a zero forecast for slow-moving items renders WMAPE forecast error essentially meaningless.

High-steaks business planning: Are you meating your forecast?


Your planners need to be able to identify and address any gap between forecasted and actual volumes. There’s nothing better and more delicious than a cold beer and plate of sizzling meat, don’t you agree?

AI May take Over the World, but it won’t Improve Forecasting

Logistics Viewpoints

Business Intelligence Statistics Supply Chain Planning AI forecastingBut before AI does take over the world, can supply chain practitioners use AI and cognitive computing technologies to improve supply chain operations? Don’t hold your breath.

How demand sensing can vault forecast accuracy beyond its theoretical limits

The Network Effect

Information theory shows us that increasing mathematical precision to model a “perfect fit” will reach a point where further sophistication of time-series analysis no longer is able to improve upon forecast accuracy. Phillipp Pohle/Flickr. Note, this is part two in a series on demand sensing.

Andreas Gärtner of Nestlé on Forecasting: “Track the Mad Bulls!”

Supply Chain Movement

Forecasting product demand will never by 100% perfect but it is possible to reduce the error of judgment. Nestlé is revitalising its Demand Forecasting process in Europe, relying on analytics to predict the demand for low-volatile products.

What If You Could Take The Guesswork Out Of Forecast Planning? Guest Post from Osgood Vogler

The 21st Century Supply Chain

by Melissa Clow Our partner Celestica recently published the following article, ‘What If You Could Take The Guesswork Out Of Forecast Planning?’. The factors which impact demand management and forecasting are nearly endless.

Celestica’s Top Priorities for Improving Forecast Accuracy – SupplyChainBrain & Kinaxis Video Series

The 21st Century Supply Chain

In this interview, hear Jeff Murphy, director of supply chain managed services with Celestica, describe how the company has improved forecast accuracy and demand visibility, against this backdrop of industry transformation. Check out: Celestica’s Top Priorities for Improving Forecast Accuracy. The company is five years into its implementation of the RapidResponse forecasting and planning tool from Kinaxis. “It’s

What-if Wednesday: Forecast Simulation – What Happens if You Change The Alpha Parameter in a Forecasting Method?


What if scenario forecast simulation: what is the effect of changing the alpha parameter in Holt-Winters method? From time to time, clients ask me about the effect of changing a parameter of a forecasting method. Related: Is Your Forecast Biased Much?

Will Forecasts and/or Predictions Benefit The Alignment of Your Priorities and Your Supply Chain?

The Network Effect

This morning I read an article that addressed the use of forecasts and predictions to understand the future of retail. Although an interesting read, I take exception to understanding forecasts and predictions as one in the same. On forecasts I fully agree. Mark Roy/Flickr.