Supply Chain Shaman

JANUARY 9, 2024

Today, we published The Supply Chains to Admire for 2023. Congratulations to the 34 winners. (For a more detailed analysis, check out the Power point summary.) The companies that outperformed industry sector performance while driving improvement and sustaining value are: Apple, Assa Abloy AB, BorgWarner, CCL Industries, Celanese, Cummins Engine, CF Industry, Decker Outdoors, Gilead Sciences, Intuitive Surgical, Hubble, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Leggett & Platt, Lockheed Martin Corporati

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Supply Chain Shaman

JANUARY 8, 2024

This weekend, I edited the Supply Chains to Admire report. The report was scheduled to publish in the summer of 2023, but life got in the way. The full report publishes this week. I laugh that writing the report is like a root canal. An analysis of improvement, performance, and value of over 500 public companies in 28 industries over a decade. (I posted my working summary.

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Supply Chain Shaman

NOVEMBER 21, 2023

When I was a teenager, I spent afternoons after school with my dad. As he lost his vision to macular degeneration, he taught me to play chess. He loved chess, and I was a reluctant participant. I played because I loved my dad, but I never was good at the game. The continual lesson to me was never underestimate the power of the pawn. Pawn Definition: “A chess piece of the smallest size and value.

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Supply Chain Shaman

NOVEMBER 9, 2023

In my writing, I try to get clear on definitions. The supply chain space is heavily laden with acronyms, gobbledygook, false narratives, and over-hyped, fast-talking technology sales teams. Let’s take an example. This is a post from LinkedIn today. “At the Digital Supply Chain event at SAP. First great insight from John McNiff: digital mature companies have lower DIO, IBP supports them!

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Supply Chain Shaman

OCTOBER 17, 2023

Rodanthe is one of my favorite beaches. During the summers when I lived in Atlanta, I would pack my bikes on top of the car and head to this wonderful, and what was then a remote beach on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. In the mornings, I would bike to a wonderful bakery, eat an Apple Ugly (an amazing pastry) and sit and drink coffee while staring at the ocean.

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Supply Chain Shaman

OCTOBER 16, 2023

The journey for S&OP is a road with many ruts and potholes. In my opinion, the road is tougher today because it is paved with good intentions but creating ruts. I am also amazed. In my twenty years of following the progression of S&OP as an analyst, I am amazed at the number of “experts” with so little expertise. Let me start by saying that t he process is not a panacea to solve all supply chain ills.

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Supply Chain Shaman

OCTOBER 11, 2023

Paradox: A statement or proposition that, despite sound (or apparently sound) reasoning from acceptable premises, leads to a conclusion that seems senseless, logically unacceptable, or self-contradictory. Definition Anomaly: something that deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected. Definition As I follow the evolution of supply chain technology, I am struck by what I see as a stream of paradox and anomaly, and the tendency of supply chain leaders to cling to convention.

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Supply Chain Shaman

OCTOBER 5, 2023

Seven pieces of advice for technologists making the current pivot for today’s technology.

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Supply Chain Shaman

JULY 23, 2023

In 2012, I published an article on Sales and Operations Technology (S&OP) Maturity. (I never republished the report, because not enough has changed to warrant it.) The report centers on the concept of moving from inside-out to outside-in technologies. At the time, one of the people (let’s call him Noel) that I great respect for in the industry called me to say, “Lora, I don’t get it.

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Supply Chain Shaman

JUNE 30, 2023

This week, I spoke to John. As a supply chain leader, he is struggling how to dance in the ring of fire. You may also be facing the same issue. Let me explain. What Is The Ring of Fire? The ring of fire is corporate politics at the executive level on supply chain performance. Each executive has a different perspective on the definition of supply chain excellence, but they are never discussed and aligned.

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Supply Chain Shaman

JUNE 21, 2023

Surgery is over. I am safely recuperating at home. Due to travel restrictions, I cannot attend many industry events, so I observe from home, watching webinars and remote broadcasts. As I process the content, I struggle. My mind questions, “How did we get here? ” I believe that the industry is stuck. My question is, “How do we break the conventional norms to drive breakthrough thinking?

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Supply Chain Shaman

JUNE 9, 2023

This is a ChatGPT image rendered when asked, “Show me how Lora Cecere would look riding an Octopus.” Funny? Yes, quite. As I approach my 69th birthday and pending surgery, I thank ChatGPT for removing my facial lines and giving me a good hair day. But, you might ask, “Why an octopus?” Shouldn’t this gal be retiring? This leads me to a long story.

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Supply Chain Shaman

MAY 26, 2023

The market literature, currently dripping with Artificial Intelligence, primarily focuses on discussions to build better engines to drive insights. This leads me to the question, “If the car’s frame is broken, can a better engine help?” I don’t think so. The basic frame of supply chain planning–functional taxonomies for optimization on a relational database–must be redesigned before supply chain leaders can reap the benefit of deep learning, neural networks, a

Optimal Sourcing 337

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Supply Chain Shaman

MAY 22, 2023

Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) is a business process. When the design is a supply chain-centric design, problems arise. I have tracked maturity levels in S&OP for the past two decades and note that most companies are stuck unable to drive progress. I would like to help. This is the goal of this post. S&OP Challenges In a recent research study of business executives, the top three challenges were: not having technologies that support the S&OP process, issues with the role of

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Supply Chain Shaman

MAY 9, 2023

Organizations use S&OP as a hammer in search of a nail. The process is not a panacea for the lack of organizational alignment or clarity on strategy. Currently, LinkedIn is flooded with smiling pictures of supply chain business leaders attending conferences. The good news is that we can attend conferences again. The bad news is that most discussions are based on opinions, not facts.

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Supply Chain Shaman

MAY 1, 2023

“An idiot with a plan can beat a genius without a plan.” Warren Buffet, Investor This week, I finished a report. It will publish next week. The research focuses on lessons to be learned from the past thirty-seven months of disruption. My primary insight is that many of the technology initiatives that were underway at the start of the disruption did not serve us well.

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Supply Chain Shaman

APRIL 18, 2023

Over four-hundred days of war in Ukraine. Growing tensions between China and trading partners. Unrest in Sudan. The global supply chain is built on three assumptions: rational government policy, availability of reasonably priced logistics, and low variability. In March 2023, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index fell to the lowest level since November 2008.

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Supply Chain Shaman

MARCH 27, 2023

I need to clear the air. My goal is to engage the supply chain community in a no smoke and mirrors discussion. Here I am attempting to write a no holds barred post: one absent of hype with a focus on authenticity. My observation is that the supply chain community perpetuates a number of myths about planning. As discussions full of oxymorons, acronyms, and juxtapositions fill the air, I think that it is time to step back, and rethink planning based on the opportunities that new forms of analytics

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Supply Chain Shaman

MARCH 21, 2023

The story continues. Bloated inventories. Rising inflation. Tightening of organizational belt-cutting to improve cash. Despite investments in planning, today, industries hold 28 more days of inventory than in 2004. Note that in Figure 1, retail home improvements days of inventory increased 68 days, contract manufacturing days increased 48 days, retail apparel by 28 days, and containers and packaging manufacturing companies by 14 days.

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Supply Chain Shaman

JANUARY 2, 2023

This blog post started a series of telephone calls. A large consumer products manufacturer with nine Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) instances and several divisions wanted to discuss forecasting. The Center of Excellence at the company wanted to improve base-level capabilities but struggled to move forward due to the traditional views of the planning team, which they felt were self-serving.

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Supply Chain Shaman

DECEMBER 27, 2022

In a recent research project, we found that 2/3 of companies had a digital supply chain transformation strategy; however, those that were evolving their strategy performed better during the early months of the pandemic than those that were “clear” on the project plan for a digital transformation. I know, a head-scratcher. My conclusion? Sometimes organizations are too sure and chase shiny objects, push a fad, or fall prey under the spell of a Supply Chain Conquistador.

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Supply Chain Shaman

DECEMBER 15, 2022

When reviewing strategy decks for supply chain teams, I often see statements like “move from a functional-silo’d focus to a drive a more holistic response.” Or “push a shift from a focus on cost to drive value?” Sound familiar? As an analyst, I am always searching for answers and clear definitions. To help, I will ask, “How do you define value?

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Supply Chain Shaman

DECEMBER 7, 2022

I am lucky to be an analyst. Many might say, “Aren’t you a consultant?” And my reply is that “An analyst is trying to understand where the market is going, whereas a consultant has the answers.” I don’t have the answers, but I am actively studying the market to help business leaders figure out the questions they should ask to drive performance improvements.

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Supply Chain Shaman

NOVEMBER 13, 2022

This November is a layoff season. As pink slips ripple through Silicon Valley to over 120,000 workers following a time of overexuberant hiring, it is a time for both sadness and reflection. The end of this chapter in Big Tech occurs, it is time for a reality check. As supply chain leaders face heightened demand uncertainty and extreme supply chain disruption, the answer is not going to come from Silcon Valley.

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Supply Chain Shaman

OCTOBER 19, 2022

Today, data moves fast, but supply chain decisions move slowly. I know a bit of a generalization, but ironic, right? The reasons are many, including data latency (the time to clean, load, and use data), process latency (the time for an organization to decide on action after getting the data), demand latency (the time from channel consumption to order visibility), market latency (the time from a market shift to the translation to customer order) or transparent governance (a defined process on how

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Supply Chain Shaman

OCTOBER 13, 2022

Another night staring out the window from a dark airport terminal. I squint to look at the terminal monitor hoping that the two-hour flight delay changes. I brace myself for a late flight for a 2:00 AM arrival as the clock ticks-an echo of time lost. Today, I ended a 45-day speaking tour. As COVID restrictions lift, I am back on the road, albeit not as wild and crazy as pre-Covid days.

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Supply Chain Shaman

SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

Supply chain leaders are in the middle of implementing digital transformation programs. For many organizations, digital transformation is untethered hype. There is a veiled promise for improvement. Here I ask, “Whether we can change course to drive more value in supply chain management?” “ Vieled: not openly or directly revealed or expressed. “ Free Dictionary.

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Supply Chain Shaman

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

Definition: “Someone’s efforts, resolve, or viability are tested; things are meaningfully challenging. “ Wikipedia. The supply chain team’s past thirty-two months of disruption were a long, winding road full of surprises. Navigating through the turmoil is unprecedented: there are no easy reference models to guide behavior. As a result, companies are writing new case studies through their actions or inaction.

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Supply Chain Shaman

SEPTEMBER 22, 2022

I am writing this post from a hotel room in Chicago. My feet are swollen, and my luggage overflows with dirty laundry. I have not been home since the end of August. This week, I spoke at a University of Wisconsin event on responsiveness and ASCM on the future of supply chain planning. This speaking tour ends the first week of October. Fall is conference season, and this year, with pent-up post-pandemic energy to return to events, I hit the trail to share insights on the value of outside-in suppl

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Supply Chain Shaman

SEPTEMBER 5, 2022

Thirty-one months of supply chain disruption. Currently, companies struggle with rolling electric outages in China. Water levels falling in the Rhine, the Loire, and the Colorado River. The winter offers no relief. COVID is far from over and food instability, coupled with drought, is driving migration from Sudan to Europe. The Russian invasion of Ukraine stretches into a much longer war resulting in serious disruptions to the food, automotive, and semi-conductor supply chains.

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Supply Chain Shaman

AUGUST 12, 2022

I hopped on the plane in Baltimore on my way to Atlanta last week. Always late, I squeezed past a middle-aged man wearing a black mask in the aisle seat and promptly fell asleep nodding my head on the window ledge. As we circled Atlanta, I woke up and started a obligatory conversation with my neighbor. I started with, “Tell me about you. What brings you to Atlanta?

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Supply Chain Shaman

JULY 30, 2022

I remember the evening well. A requirement to apply as an analyst position for AMR Research was to write an opinion piece and defend the article in an interview. My PC was in the shop, and I quickly grabbed a coffee as I headed into the hotel lobby to type the opinion, which I hoped would take less than an hour. My assigned topic was demand visibility.

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Supply Chain Shaman

JULY 21, 2022

In business conversations, the term supply chain excellence rolls off the tongue frequently in meetings, but what does it mean? My insight? There is no standard answer. Excellence is actively sought but seldom defined for business teams. Most teams are on a journey without a clear compass. Supply chain excellence is harder to define than to say. To help, we analyze business results each year to understand which companies outperform on the balanced scorecard of growth, inventory turns, operating

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Supply Chain Shaman

JULY 12, 2022

Supply chain resilience is “the capacity of a supply chain to persist, adapt, or transform in the face of change” Wikipedia. Revlon bankruptcy. McCormick stock falls on Q2 earnings miss. CEO of Bed Bath and Beyond out as sales tumble. Target earnings disappointment and restatement. Daily, we see business continuity case studies as headline news in the Wall Street Journal.

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Supply Chain Shaman

JUNE 24, 2022

As my arms stretch forward to pull for the next lap in the summer heat, three thoughts circulate in my head. (I often write my blogs in my head as I swim. The rhythm of a lap swim helps me to think better.). During the swim, my mind races with many thoughts. Life for the supply chain leader is more complex. Shortages. Baby formula. Semiconductors. Tampons.

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Supply Chain Shaman

JUNE 1, 2022

“In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” Dwight D. Eisenhower was a military officer and statesman. The 34th president of the United States (1953 to 1961.). Good plans identify probabilities and feasibilities while driving team collaboration/visibility on an array of possible outcomes.

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Supply Chain Shaman

APRIL 27, 2022

Supply chain excellence is easier to say than to explain. Business leaders are action-oriented and competitive. Executive teams strive to drive improvement in supply chain results; yet, sadly, only four percent of public companies succeed. The reason? After two decades of study, I think because it is a lack of understanding. In this area of research, I find that companies are like dogs chasing cars.

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