2007 Conference Forecasting Inventory 
Supply Chain Shaman
APRIL 9, 2021
Rise in Inventories. Less Effective at Inventory Management. Inventories grew twenty days over the decade. Yes, companies held more inventory (measured in days of inventory) in 2019 than at the start of the 2007 recession. Sadly, most of it is the wrong inventory. Despite spending 1.1%
Supply Chain Shaman
FEBRUARY 14, 2022
When my flight canceled, I was en route to the annual AMR conference in Phoenix. Tight coupling of the supply chain forecast to the financial forecast will improve value. Companies tightly coupling the budget to S&OP have significantly higher inventories and lower growth than their peer group. Don’t believe me?
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Supply Chain Shaman
SEPTEMBER 22, 2021
One of the goals of the conference was to challenge the audience to redefine work. Similarly, after the conference, I started working with a chemical company to formulate a supply chain strategy. I also forecast dismal retail performance for the holidays. Let’s look at the past to forecast the future: Phase 1.
Supply Chain Shaman
OCTOBER 8, 2019
Next year’s conference will be on September 8th-11th in Franklin, TN, south of Nashville, TN. The design of the conference includes tours of several modern warehouses and centers of excellence. The budget is not sufficient and is often a detrimental input for supply chain forecasting. Time horizon. Bias and error.
Supply Chain Shaman
AUGUST 26, 2015
As the markets plummet, it is time to remind ourselves that demand is not a forecast. Traditional forecasting approaches are not adequate in a time of market volatility. In the real world, companies operate with a Mean Absolute Forecast Error of 24-60%, and have a bias of 9-40%. I remember December 2007 like yesterday.
Supply Chain Shaman
AUGUST 14, 2016
As we discussed this drawing the dialogue flowed in the conference room. A Demand-Driven Value Network as defined by AMR Research in 2007: A network that senses demand with minimal latency to drive a near real-time response to shape and translate demand. The focus is on channel data: price; inventory positions; and policies.
Arkieva
MARCH 2, 2016
Dale Davidson, famed economist who predicted the economy collapse of 1999 and 2007 warns, “Don’t imply that a 50% collapse is looming – it’s already at our doorstep.” Too much inventories placing pressure on cutting prices to retain sales. Take, for example, forecasting improvements. Worse margins driven by too little demand.
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