article thumbnail

Probabilistic Forecasting: Right Fit for Your Business?

Supply Chain Shaman

A Closer Look at Forecasting. Traditionally companies forecast using history (shipments or orders) and applying linear regression to understand the patterns of historical demand using these to estimate future requirements in a time-series format. Spairliners: A Case Study in Probabilistic Forecasting. About Spairliners.

article thumbnail

Trying to Push Content Above the Noise

Supply Chain Shaman

We talk about complexity, but do not measure the impact on forecastability. All four of these companies were selected as winners of the Gartner Top 25 award, yet all four underperform on growth and no company is driving improvement at the intersection of operating margin and inventory turns. As I write, I scratch my head.

Gartner 311
Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

How We Stubbed Our Toe in The Evolution of S&OP

Supply Chain Shaman

Tight coupling of the supply chain forecast to the financial forecast will improve value. Companies tightly coupling the budget to S&OP have significantly higher inventories and lower growth than their peer group. Industries carried on average 32 days more inventory in 2020 than in 2007. (I Don’t believe me?

S&OP 195
article thumbnail

This Week in Logistics News (February 4 – 10)

Logistics Viewpoints

G, the official groundhog of Massachusetts made her 16 th annual Groundhog Day forecast at Drumlin Farm in Lincoln, MA. And location is everything in weather forecasting. Inventories are much lower now than they were in Q3 of last year, and it seems the supply chains are coming back to life with the goal of replenishment.

article thumbnail

Top 15 Logistics Stories of 2022

Logistics Viewpoints

Looking back, I estimated the market in 2013 at $6.4 billion globally, and I forecast it to grow to $9.9 Inventory Management in a High Inflation Environment ; Clint Reiser. Instead, they are likely to carry higher levels of inventory as a lower cost alternative to minimizing disruptions. billion in 2019.

article thumbnail

Supply Chain Leaders, Chained to Tradition, Face the Whip

Supply Chain Shaman

The future inventory fire sale. One of my stark realizations this year is that smaller companies are beating larger and often more established companies on growth metrics, inventory turns, operating margin, and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). (In The metrics selection resulted from work with Arizona State University in 2013.)

article thumbnail

Supply chain inventory optimization – Beyond the analytics

Kinaxis

But the sheer complexity of supply chain networks, and the impact design decisions have on operational performance, makes supply chain inventory management aligning inventory investments with on-time customer delivery and margins a major challenge. trillion in cash according to a 2013 US Working Capital Survey.