Forecasting and demand management for new events using machine-learning algorithm

Kinaxis

When it comes to forecasting and demand management , a lot. For events like the Super Bowl, retail demand planners create forecasts using data from a variety of sources to adjust product demand profiles in anticipation of which product, or group of products might be in demand the most. As more data enters the system, the system becomes more intelligent and the data becomes more manageable and subsequently, easier to interpret.

Forecast Accuracy: Keep Your Demand Management Process Honest

Kinaxis

by Alexa Cheater Our partner Celestica recently published the following article, ‘ Are you keeping your demand management process honest? ’ Lange, Director of Demand Planning and S&OP Services at Celestica, examines forecast accuracy and the main components of a demand management measurement tool and process. You also need measurement and accuracy reports to determine the effectiveness of the entire demand management process. Data Management.

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A Tale of Two Procurement Books: Cox’s Sourcing Portfolio Analysis (Cox) & Strategic Sourcing in the New Economy (Keith et al.)

Supply Chain View from the Field

Some of the emerging views on the “future of procurement” focus on the importance of being a strong internal consultant, the importance of building relationships, coaching suppliers, post-award contract management, and relational contracting. Andrew Cox’s new book “Sourcing Portfolio Analysis” represents the more traditional “power-based” view of procurement. These types of relationships do not exist in the world of Cox’s Sourcing Portfolio Analysis.

Andrew Cox’s “Sourcing Portfolio Analysis”: More of the Same

Supply Chain View from the Field

Against the many new articles and books being produced on the changing face of procurement and the importance of value creation and collaboration, Andrew Cox’s new book “Sourcing Portfolio Analysis” came out earlier this year. The book is essentially a series of prescriptive 2 X 2 and 8 X 8 matrices that establish different typologies for supplier segmentation, that ostensibly can lead to improved sourcing outcomes.

What About Them Apples?

Supply Chain Shaman

In offices across the United Sates, demand planners are scratching their heads. Shifting demand and rising prices for cotton and orange juice. Surprising demand in automotive for car replacement. History is not a good predictor of current demand. Sensing of markets and the translation of channel demand into an accurate demand signal for the company is the foundational principle of market-driven processes. Today’s demand processes are inside-out.

What the Analysts Are Saying About…A&D Supply Chains

Kinaxis

Think about those design, sourcing and delivery challenges. A supply chain based so heavily on external sources is susceptible to more risk than catching a flight on time out of Newark. Interestingly, to help address the issue of ensuring materials are available when needed; the research indicates that A&D companies have “developed some of the most advanced sourcing techniques and practices.” by Bill DuBois.

Supplier Co-Innovation: The Next Source for Economic Growth

NC State SCRC

We hear the words “innovation” as a source for growth in the economy over and over again. New ideas on how to manage business processes, digital technologies, ways of delivering value to customers, and supply chain linkages are all areas where we are likely to see new forms of innovation occurring. But what will be the true source of innovation?

Your supply chain is costing you money – Reason #6 Not effectively managing inventory.

Kinaxis

Reason #5 Not having a supply chain risk management process. Reason #6 Not effectively managing inventory. Those of you that manage inventories know how hard it can be to get the quantities just right. Operations is going full out building anticipation inventory for Product A because Product A’s demand always goes up this time of year. Inventory Management is a large and changing topic.

Elephant in the Room: Thoughts on Metrics That Matter in Semiconductor and Hard Disk Drives

Kinaxis

With China already a source for semiconductor raw materials and the China/India end consumer market growing, there will be pressure to supply chips and hard drives to local China/India OEM’s first. The ‘bullwhip effect’ certainly plays a role here, creating wide fluctuations (over and under) of supply and demand – due to disorganization, lack of communication or miscommunication, incorrect demand information, etc. by CJ Wehlage.

Sustainable Hardwood use in Namibia – A 200-Year Plan

DynaSys

The demand for trees comes mainly from China. We match demand to supply to generate profits and other benefits for all of the stakeholders. Firstly, demand needs to be managed to a level that matches the supply of mature trees. This will severely limit the demand that can be met. So now we need to decide which demand. By managing demand, we have already increased the value of each tree. The issues then have to be addressed and managed.

Managing supply chains in a fragile environment

Supply Chain View from the Field

A friend working at a large third party logistics company noted how demand is very soft. Regulators are pressing financial services to drive audits of their key suppliers, and have lost their confidence in their ability to manage the intellectual property they have outsourced to third parties. The goal for executives in this environment may indeed be just to preserve revenue through assurance of supply, and managing complex cost reduction.

Beyond Spend Analytics: Supplier Life Cycle Data

Supply Chain View from the Field

The scope of the datasets his team was working on was limited to supply management, but the sheer volume of data was staggering in its complexity and fragmentation. In sourcing, data must be tracked over the entire life of a supplier. But does the invoice manage the contract – and who is checking that? Oh, and don’t forget that you don’t just manage price – but quantity!

Building Outside-in Processes: Answering A Question From the Audience

Supply Chain Shaman

During the presentation, I spoke about the future of supply chain management, and the building of outside-in processes. Rethink Demand. Demand is a river, or stream. Companies that are good at demand management understand the need for design–form & function of inventory and push/pull decoupling points –and the orchestration of demand to make better decisions in sourcing, transportation and delivery. Demand-Driven Model.

Reality Check: Why It’s Impossible to Manage an Entire Supply Chain Using the ERP Alone

OneSCM

The problem is, if you are using more than one ERP to manage your many business processes, then you end up with inefficient processes due to the data silos created by each system. And, while necessary to managing operations, ERPs only complicate supplier management. They also make it nearly impossible for internal functions and trading partners to collaborate at the level your organization demands.

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Help Supply Chain Planners Be More Successful In These Uncertain Times

Supply Chain Shaman

Before boarding the plane, I watched a traveler pull a diet Coke from the bin and thought about the struggle to source sweetener with the rise of COV-19. As I poured the dog food into the bowl for my pups, I wondered if I was going to have to switch kibble due to the looming issues of sourcing taurine—a health additive in many pet foods. The order is a poor proxy for demand and few supply chains have access to consumption data. As I flew to Dallas, I worked on this post.

Reality Check: Why It’s Impossible to Manage an Entire Supply Chain Using the ERP Alone

OneSCM

The problem is, if you are using more than one ERP to manage your many business processes, then you end up with inefficient processes due to the data silos created by each system. And, while necessary to managing operations, ERPs only complicate supplier management. They also make it nearly impossible for internal functions and trading partners to collaborate at the level your organization demands.

SCM 150

Reality Check: Why It’s Impossible to Manage an Entire Supply Chain Using the ERP Alone

OneSCM

The problem is, if you are using more than one ERP to manage your many business processes, then you end up with inefficient processes due to the data silos created by each system. And, while necessary to managing operations, ERPs only complicate supplier management. They also make it nearly impossible for internal functions and trading partners to collaborate at the level your organization demands.

SCM 150

Demand Optimization Maturity Curve

Logility

Forecasting customer demand has been a critical aspect of business since ancient times. The first commercially available demand planning system was introduced to the market in the mid 1970’s by American Software. At that time only the largest companies could afford robust demand planning systems run on mainframe systems managed by a dedicated demand planning specialist. This post discusses the Demand Optimization Maturity Curve. Source: Logility, Inc.

The Absolut Company: Balancing Service and Inventory Creates a Delicious Mix

ToolsGroup

Production complexity and SKU count had been steadily increasing for years, and finally prompted Absolut to seek a better and more efficient way to manage production planning for its extremely popular vodka. A key factor was Optilon’s ability to integrate best-of-breed solutions for production planning, demand forecasting, inventory optimization, and replenishment into a seamless process. Blog Demand Planning Inventory Optimization Supply Chain Planning Featured

Supply Chain Diagnostic: A Four-Step Process

Supply Chain Shaman

” Or alternatively, “Is there data that could be sourced to help?” I am often asked to benchmark demand. Profile volume segments by coefficient of variation by demand flow. Divide the analysis into categories: High volume, very predictable demand. Medium volume products, predictable demand. Medium volume, inconsistent demand. Low volume, predictable demand. Low volume inconsistent demand. July is my birthday month.

Observations on Artificial Intelligence in the Supply Chain Market

Logility

Applications in supply chain management are nothing new. Machine Learning has been used to improve demand forecasting since the early 2000s. Demand Planning applications rely on a series of algorithms to take historical shipment data and turn it into a forecast. In a demand management application, the system is continuously monitoring forecasting accuracy. Upstream delays can be identified, allowing for contingency planning or alternative sourcing.

Bright and Shiny Objects?

Supply Chain Shaman

I am trying to help teams manage the hype and drive value. There is a need to manage excitement and exercise caution. With the evolution of open source technologies with schema-on-read capabilities, new forms of decision support are evolving to drive insights in the enterprise, and Blockchain is becoming the system of record for B2B.

How to interpret demand-sensing data

The Network Effect

Note, this is part five in a series on demand sensing. Demand Sensing can import demand data on an hourly rather than a batch or daily basis, immediately sensing demand signal changes as compared to a detailed statistical demand pattern, and then evaluates the statistical significance of the change. Advanced statistical analytics identify and rapidly react to replenishment issues or sudden changes in customer demand. Nic McPhee/Flickr.

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What Exactly Is Supply Chain Management? 10 Different Definitions!

Supply Chain Game Changer

When I began my career there was no such thing as “Supply Chain Management” Supply Chain was not a title to be found anywhere on any organization chart. Yet all of the functions that we now associate with Supply Chain have been around for a very long time: Planning, Inventory Management, Logistics, Procurement and Purchasing, Warehousing and many more. So what exactly is the definition of “Supply Chain Management”? Source: [link] ).

The Importance of a Connected Supply Chain

TPSynergy

Most companies rely on traditional processes to ensure the gap between demand and supply is as small as possible. This entire process, however, is prone to delays and miscalculations, all of which could upset the balance between supply and demand. These components include almost 40+ unique processes under 5 main categories: plan, source, make, deliver, and enable. The Importance of a Connected Supply Chain.

What Value Are You Getting From Planning?

Supply Chain Shaman

Operations complexity coupled with the rise in demand volatility increases corporate risk. Additionally t he move from regional to global supply chain management decreased visibility. As market demands increase supply chain leaders want the same level of data usability that they have in their personal lives. This is a measurement of demand sensing and overcoming demand latency. Forecast Value-Added (FVA) is a measurement of demand management improvement.

Four Reviews of DDMRP for Supply Chain Planning

ToolsGroup

Source: The Enterprise System Spectator. In recent months four experts have weighed in on Demand Driven Material Requirements Planning (DDMRP). However, she disagrees with DDMRP’s principles of forecasting and the use of demand sensing technologies. He says that if “companies want to get the demand/supply balance equation right for their supply chains, they will need to invest in respond planning capabilities of some sort.

Not the Jetsons: 10 Use Cases for Cognitive Learning in Supply Chain

Supply Chain Shaman

Last week, I was having breakfast with a CEO of a leading software supply chain management company. While the solutions are sourced from the same provider, each has a different data definition. Automation of Master Data Management and the Replacement of Data Standards. Rethinking Demand Management. Rows and columns define forecasting Companies lose visibility on the patterns and demand flows. Remember the Jetsons?

Is your supply chain planning ready for the “Experience Economy”?

ToolsGroup

They vastly improve predictive capabilities by deriving insights from huge and diverse data sources including social feeds , weather forecasts and peer reviews. If this sounds familiar, here are four reasons to move ahead in adopting AI as part of your supply chain or demand planning: Early adopters started seven years ago - We began enhancing our planning software with machine learning technologies seven years ago, well before the hype around AI was in full swing.

Smart Supply Chain – What is it and why do you need it?

TPSynergy

Most companies rely on traditional processes to ensure the gap between demand and supply is as small as possible. This entire process, however, is prone to delays and miscalculations, all of which could upset the balance between supply and demand. These components include almost 40+ unique processes under 5 main categories: plan, source, make, deliver, and enable. The Importance of a Connected Supply Chain.

Overcoming Trade War Myopia with Supply Chain Leadership!

Supply Chain Game Changer

Without enough capacity or labour fulfilling demand increases may be problematic. Increasing the demand on over the road transportation in the U.S., Sourcing, supply, delivery, materials cost, total cost of acquisition … it’s all Supply Chain! This is a Supply Chain sourcing move for sure! Supply Chain must complete a revised cost analysis for all impacted raw materials, sources, and network nodes (eg. Sourcing Analysis. Sourcing Decisions.

The Fight of the Titans

Supply Chain Shaman

The field of supply chain management–combining source, make and deliver–into a common process started in 1982. The source of the data is public reporting of balance sheet information. I love the ownership at the business level of cost-to-serve, demand variability and complexity. In Greek mythology, there is a difference between a Titan and a G od. A Titan was born of Uranus and Gaea and ruled the earth until overthrown by the Olympian gods.

Why CPG Demand Forecasting Has Hit a Ceiling

ToolsGroup

Most CPG companies have hit a demand forecasting ceiling. The goal of this revenue chase is to grow demand— but this path to growth comes at a cost— the cost of demand complexity. And complexity creates a challenge of how to forecast accurately when faced with new items, new channels and demand shaping. Across the CPG industry, demand forecast errors increased in 2014 and were unchanged in 2015, according to Gartner analyst Steve Steutermann. Sense Demand.

What role will human planners play in the supply chain of the future?

DELMIA Quintiq

A lot of the decision-making can be enhanced and augmented through very smart, very clever, very quick algorithms, using data sources we never thought imaginable before, but there must be human oversight. Fausty David, Head of Global Demand Management, FCI Electronics. “We’re And that’s where I think the future of demand planners or planning managers will be — managing exceptions.”.

Is Poor Inventory Performance Holding You Back?

Kinaxis

The authors, Anandhi Narayanan, Senior Manager, Advanced Customer Solutions, Charles Thomas, Director, IT Customer Solutions, Stacey Greene, Director of Inventory Optimization and Robert Rejano, Processes and Applications Advisor, all with Celestica, describe the critical steps needed to drive inventory performance improvements. Successfully increasing your inventory performance requires integration of data from all sources that make up your supply chain network.