Dreaming about accurate forecasts?

DELMIA Quintiq

There is a saying among forecast users: “ If you forecast, you may be wrong; but you will always be wrong if you do not forecast.”. But how much faith are companies willing to place in inaccurate forecasts? This ultimately improves the quality of the forecasts.

How Not to use Machine Learning for Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Eight years ago ToolsGroup was one of the first supply chain planning software vendors to employ machine learning to improve demand forecasting. Statistical forecasting approaches have others. Forecasting Demand and Analytics Machine Learning

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Building a Business Case for Improved Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

I’ve always maintained that improving demand forecast accuracy, as helpful as it can be, shouldn’t be the end goal itself, but simply a means to the end. Gartner says that you shouldn’t just pitch forecast accuracy to your executive management, but translate your plan into business metrics.

Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Editor's Note: This is the second in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Demand forecasting software can usually factor in climate and seasonality , like more ice cream being sold during summer months or in warmer climates. Source: NYCCSC.

Trade promotion forecasting: the present and the near future

ToolsGroup

Trade promotion forecasting is difficult: getting it right involves factoring in many variables. Forecasting demand data, not so much. To do this, the first hurdle is creating a good statistical baseline forecast.

Why CPG Demand Forecasting Has Hit a Ceiling

ToolsGroup

Most CPG companies have hit a demand forecasting ceiling. And complexity creates a challenge of how to forecast accurately when faced with new items, new channels and demand shaping. Many CPG companies are at a loss on what to work on to improve these forecasts.

Heard It through the Grapevine? Now Your Demand Forecasting Can Too

ToolsGroup

Editor's Note: This is the third in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Part Two of the series, on Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Forecasting , can be found here. Forecasting Demand and Analytics

Forecast Accuracy: Keep Your Demand Management Process Honest

Kinaxis

Lange, Director of Demand Planning and S&OP Services at Celestica, examines forecast accuracy and the main components of a demand management measurement tool and process. Reporting Forecast Accuracy. While calculating forecast accuracy is important, it’s not enough.

Sales Forecasting Unchecked – A Supply Chain Nightmare!

Supply Chain Game Changer

The Planning and Budget cycle within most companies must start with a forecast of future sales and revenue. The Sales and Marketing team is usually responsible for pulling that forecast together. What Happens When Forecasts Are Wrong? Forecasts are generally notoriously wrong.

Outsourcing Sourcing! 5 Lessons from Around the Globe!

Supply Chain Game Changer

Doing business with suppliers located overseas or in another country can be an overwhelming and daunting task even for expert Sourcing professionals. But beyond that he had no idea on where to start to source his product. The post Outsourcing Sourcing! Subscribe Here!

Forecasting and demand management for new events using machine-learning algorithm

Kinaxis

When it comes to forecasting and demand management , a lot. For events like the Super Bowl, retail demand planners create forecasts using data from a variety of sources to adjust product demand profiles in anticipation of which product, or group of products might be in demand the most.

The Dark Side of the Forecast: How to Conquer it

The Supply Chainer Report

Following China Chang’e-4 mission landing on the far side of the Moon , let’s talk about the role of Forecast in business and more specifically in the Supply Chain. Everyone needs a Forecast. Any enterprise is capable of having a Forecast. Use a Baseline Forecast.

Andreas Gärtner of Nestlé on Forecasting: “Track the Mad Bulls!”

Supply Chain Movement

Forecasting product demand will never by 100% perfect but it is possible to reduce the error of judgment. Nestlé is revitalising its Demand Forecasting process in Europe, relying on analytics to predict the demand for low-volatile products.

RELEX’s forecasting approaches

RELEX Solutions

RELEX’s forecasting approaches. Technology has transformed forecasting, enabling us to process unfathomable quantities of data and draw conclusions with an unprecedented degree of accuracy. Nevertheless, in retail forecasting, one needs good foundations. Demand Forecastin

Sorting out Risk in FinTech Source Chains

NC State SCRC

But emerging technology is now beginning to create new ways to think about sourcing risk, which in the past has been a very manual, encumbered process. This has caused banks to look at the flow of activities in the “source chain”, which refers to the way that third parties use bank data for different opreations. Today, this end to end sourcing process has literally hundreds of different steps in the process. Let’s examine the source chain in more detail.

Demand Forecasting: The Unfair Competitive Advantage

Logility

” scenario: in many supply chain organizations, sub-SKU forecasting (the task of translating high-level forecasts into specific quantities by size, color, configuration, region, etc.) falls on the shoulders of the sourcing and supply functions, rather than the demand planners.

Improving Forecast Accuracy Through Demand Sensing

Supply Chain @ MIT

Typically, these algorithms only have one or two sources of information (data sets) to derive the forecast for the next period. As the field of business forecasting develops, technological improvements allow companies to experiment with more advanced […].

Forecasting vs. Demand Planning

Supply Chain Action Blog

Often, the terms, “forecasting” and “demand planning”, are used interchangeably. . Forecasting is the process of mathematically predicting a future event. As a component of demand planning, forecasting is necessary, but not sufficient. This certainly involves both quantitative and qualitative forecasting. High volume, high variability will be difficult to forecast and may require a sophisticated approach to safety stock planning.

Demand Forecasting for New Product Introductions

ToolsGroup

Editor's Note: This is the first in a short series on advanced demand analytics forecasting techniques. Next week's blog topic will be on " Using Weather Data to Improve Demand Forecasting". So one common approach is to forecast it by projecting from past histories of similar products.

Who wants to become a demand-forecasting expert? (Part 2)

DELMIA Quintiq

Read on for more insights into becoming a demand-forecasting expert. Automate the forecasting process where possible. Combine multiple sources of information to improve accuracy of forecast. What tools are you currently using for demand forecasting?

Demand Forecasting: The Unfair Competitive Advantage

Logility

” scenario: in many supply chain organizations, sub-SKU forecasting (the task of translating high-level forecasts into specific quantities by size, color, configuration, region, etc.) falls on the shoulders of the sourcing and supply functions, rather than the demand planners.

Update on Forecasting vs. Demand Planning

Supply Chain Action Blog

Often, the terms, “forecasting” and “demand planning”, are used interchangeably. . Forecasting is the process of mathematically predicting a future event. As a component of demand planning, forecasting is necessary, but not sufficient. This certainly involves both quantitative and qualitative forecasting. High volume, high variability will be difficult to forecast and may require a sophisticated approach to safety stock planning.

Why Forecasting is Important in the Supply Chain

TPSynergy

What is Forecasting? Within a supply chain, forecasting is the prediction of what to expect in the short and long term for inventory, orders, production, etc. The most common forecast is MRP or Material Requirement Planning. Why Forecasts are Important. Sharing Forecasts.

Best Practices in Weather-based Sales Forecasting

RELEX Solutions

Weather is a source of significant fluctuations in consumer demand. Build weather-based sales forecasts on top of baseline forecast. With sophisticated solutions, the whole process from fetching weather data to weather-corrected forecast calculation can be completely automated.

More Accurate Promotion Forecasting with Causal Modelling

RELEX Solutions

More accurate promotion forecasting with causal modelling. It’s inevitable that the management and forecasting of promotional activities must keep up the pace with this trend. To cope, sophisticated promotion forecasting and planning methods is necessary.

The impact of machine learning in demand forecasting

RELEX Solutions

The impact of machine learning in demand forecasting. At RELEX we live and breathe forecasting. At present we run about 10 billion forecast calculations daily, and 100 billion a week for our customers. The main area of use for demand forecasts is still managing the supply chain.

AI and the Evolution of Demand Forecasting

Aera Technology

By Stephanie Glass The complexities of demand forecasting have bedeviled businesses for decades. electric utilities lost millions in the 1970s and ’80s after investing in new power plants based on forecasts that demand would rise 7 percent a year.

Revolutionize Your Forecast Precision Based on Market and Product Attributes

Logility

If “Plan High, Source Low” was a bumper sticker, it would mean something to supply chain professionals who need to plan demand at both the aggregate levels as well as detail levels for each important product attribute (e.g.

Fresh Forecasting & Replenishment: Running an Efficient Omnichannel Grocery Retail Operation

RELEX Solutions

Fresh Forecasting & Replenishment: Running an Efficient Omnichannel Grocery Retail Operation. Accurate forecasting is at the core of increased operational efficiency as it is key to accurately match resources, such as stock and personnel, with demand.

Separate Demand Signals from ‘Market Noise’ and Bring Precision to your Forecasting

Halo

Use Halo Multivariate Demand Signal Management to isolate actual demand signals from inconsistent market activity and improve forecast quality. You can be proactive and use MDSM to explore and analyze data you already own, model additional data sources that could help explain demand variability… or sit by and watch. What Multivariate Demand Signal Management is not is a replacement for demand forecasting. Want to learn more about improving short-term forecast accuracy?

Applying the Laws of Forecasting to Predictive Analytics

NC State SCRC

We had a chance to catch up on a great number of things, but one that sticks in my mind is the discussion on predictive analytics and forecasting. Tom recalled a couple of simple rules around prediction, based on some of the time-honored rules of forecasting methods that we have both taught for years. “In And we always return to the two cardinal rules that deal with the accuracy of forecasting.” Forecasts for tomorrow are better than forecasts for two months from now.

What Value Are You Getting From Planning?

Supply Chain Shaman

2) Forecast Value Added. Forecast Value-Added (FVA) is a measurement of demand management improvement. This measurement adds discipline to the forecasting process by comparing the error and bias of the forecast as compared to the Naïve Forecast.

Challenges of global fast fashion supply chains (Part III)

Supply Chain Movement

Sourcing and manufacturing lead times. In this chapter we want to take a more upstream view to discuss about sourcing and manufacturing lead times. The first is the question of sourcing location. 3) Sourcing and manufacturing lead times.

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Demand Planning Apps Top Supply Chain Planning Machine Learning

ToolsGroup

Source: Gartner 2018. Gartner recently polled both users and vendors on which supply chain planning (SCP) applications are employing machine learning and in three different analysis, demand planning and demand forecasting came out top of the list.

Forecasting Peak Automotive Production

QAD

Being able to forecast this potential plateau is critical for automakers and suppliers alike as they look to avoid capital-intensive investments, shift business models towards software and services, and develop other effective strategies for future operations.