Causal Forecasting Brings Precision to your Forecasting

Logility

Causal f orecasting shines a light on , and isolates, actual demand signals from market “chatter,” thus improving forecast quality. What Exactly Is Causal Forecasting? . First, what it’s not is a replacement for demand forecasting.

Melitta: Collaborating for an Improved Forecasting Process

ToolsGroup

Melitta Sales Europe (MSE) embarked on an initiative to revamp existing planning and forecasting processes to increase efficiency and sustainability. MSE’s prioritization of its close internal collaboration strengthens the precision of its forecasts, ensuring a more robust S&OP process.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Get Started Using Machine Learning for New Product Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Adding to this already uphill battle, we don’t have trustworthy new product forecasting methods because forecasting new products with no sales data is very hit-and-miss. Machine learning (ML) provides an effective weapon for your new product forecasting arsenal. In this blog we will share machine learning techniques that can produce fully-automated forecasts for new products. Why is new product forecasting important? Overall reasonably accurate forecasts.

Dreaming about accurate forecasts?

DELMIA Quintiq

There is a saying among forecast users: “ If you forecast, you may be wrong; but you will always be wrong if you do not forecast.”. But how much faith are companies willing to place in inaccurate forecasts? Many companies use demand forecasts that are based solely on historical data. However, these forecasts are less effective in a volatile global market facing sociopolitical challenges, such as trade wars and Brexit.

Four Steps to Better Demand Forecasting

Logility

Forecasting is an “inexact science” that relies on the data available to you, the math you use, and how you implement the forecast. And your forecasting success is fundamentally impacted by your understanding of that data, its strengths and limits.

Improve Forecast Quality and Reliability with Value-add Forecasting (Part 1)

Logility

The ability to effectively forecast demand is essential for supply chain management decisions. In fact, demand forecasts are used throughout the supply chain including supply chain design, purchasing, operations, inventory, and sales and marketing. In large part due to computer processing power, new advances in forecasting and the abundance of new data sources have helped to increase forecast reliability. value-add forecasting today.

Sourcing And The Value Chain – Why Digital Platforms Matter

Gravity Supply Chain

Real time predictive analytics ensure offshore and nearshore sourcing decisions take place with certainty. The post Sourcing And The Value Chain – Why Digital Platforms Matter appeared first on Gravity Supply Chain. Gravity’s technology helps mitigate risk.

Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

Editor's Note: This is the second in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Demand forecasting software can usually factor in climate and seasonality , like more ice cream being sold during summer months or in warmer climates. But forecasting demand for weather-dependent goods can be challenging because it can be more difficult to predict. But that’s the granular level you need to forecast for supply chain planning.

Building a Business Case for Improved Demand Forecasting

ToolsGroup

I’ve always maintained that improving demand forecast accuracy, as helpful as it can be, shouldn’t be the end goal itself, but simply a means to the end. A recent report from Gartner agrees, focusing specifically on the challenge of building a better business case for improved forecast accuracy. Gartner says that you shouldn’t just pitch forecast accuracy to your executive management, but translate your plan into business metrics. Forecasting Demand and Analytics

Trade promotion forecasting: the present and the near future

ToolsGroup

Trade promotion forecasting is difficult: getting it right involves factoring in many variables. Forecasting demand data, not so much. To do this, the first hurdle is creating a good statistical baseline forecast. Many organizations fall down at this first hurdle because their baseline forecasts lack precision and rely too much on gut feel, guesswork and oversimplified calculations. How else can machine learning improve trade promotion forecasting outcomes?

How Sourcing has Reemerged in a Covid-19 World

Jaggaer

For the first three months after Covid-19 hit, virtually every sourcing project , in every sector , was put on hold while companies tried to assess the situation and how best to deal with the epidemic. Diversify Your Sourcing Needs. COVID-19 Sourcing

Why CPG Demand Forecasting Has Hit a Ceiling

ToolsGroup

Most CPG companies have hit a demand forecasting ceiling. And complexity creates a challenge of how to forecast accurately when faced with new items, new channels and demand shaping. Recent evidence strongly suggests that traditional forecasting techniques in this environment have reached their limits and hit a ceiling. Across the CPG industry, demand forecast errors increased in 2014 and were unchanged in 2015, according to Gartner analyst Steve Steutermann.

Forecast Accuracy: Keep Your Demand Management Process Honest

Kinaxis

Lange, Director of Demand Planning and S&OP Services at Celestica, examines forecast accuracy and the main components of a demand management measurement tool and process. We’ve outlined his recommendations below so you can help improve your forecast accuracy, leading to improved business operations and ultimately greater success. Reporting Forecast Accuracy. While calculating forecast accuracy is important, it’s not enough. Forecast Accuracy.

How to Get Started with Value-add Forecasting (Part 2)

Logility

So, the promise of using statistical algorithms, forecasting and predictive analytics is now added to the list of a company’s number one priorities. Here are a few steps that you will need to take to deploy your forecasts successfully. In far too many cases, forecasts are done as a fishing expedition where analysts run the data through predictive algorithms to see what “pops.” Phone * Company * Job Title * Zip Code * Source Asset Source Download ID.

Forecast Accuracy at the SKU Level is Achievable

Logility

Over my 25+ year supply chain career I have worked for several distribution-intensive companies and every single one of them had a focus on improving forecast accuracy. Achieving a high SKU level forecast accuracy is a top goal for supply chain planning teams regardless of industry, size, location, etc. Gartner, for example, places demand forecasts at the top of their Hierarchy of Supply Chain Metrics to highlight the impact of forecasts throughout the supply chain.

The Top 5 Reasons You Need a Transportation Sourcing Solution

Talking Logistics

However, if your role is managing the movement of widgets from point A to point B, or multiple points, the freight procurement task before you can be labor intensive and time consuming — unless you use a technology solution specifically designed for transportation sourcing. Here are the top five reasons you need a transportation sourcing solution: 1. Freight sourcing is as unique and complex as the transportation industry itself.

Forecasting and demand management for new events using machine-learning algorithm

Kinaxis

When it comes to forecasting and demand management , a lot. For events like the Super Bowl, retail demand planners create forecasts using data from a variety of sources to adjust product demand profiles in anticipation of which product, or group of products might be in demand the most. The ability to forecast the uplift in demand reliably to guarantee consumer product availability and to evaluate the economic returns on the promotions has largely been a dark art.

Heard It through the Grapevine? Now Your Demand Forecasting Can Too

ToolsGroup

Editor's Note: This is the third in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Part Two of the series, on Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Forecasting , can be found here. And now there is another development: leveraging the grapevine (social listening) for demand forecasting. Another good application is helping to forecast the impact of promotions. Forecasting Demand and Analytics

Sales Forecasting Unchecked – A Supply Chain Nightmare!

Supply Chain Game Changer

The Planning and Budget cycle within most companies must start with a forecast of future sales and revenue. The Sales and Marketing team is usually responsible for pulling that forecast together. They are likely to pull together several sources of data in order to create that revenue forecast. And to round out their forecast the Sales and Marketing team will have to include some estimates of new, but as yet not closed, business. Subscribe Here! Email Address.

Outsourcing Sourcing! 5 Lessons from Around the Globe!

Supply Chain Game Changer

Doing business with suppliers located overseas or in another country can be an overwhelming and daunting task even for expert Sourcing professionals. But beyond that he had no idea on where to start to source his product. Large companies can afford to have Strategic Sourcing Procurement staff around the world. There are a myriad of processes, controls, conditions and situations that need to be managed to ensure that your products are sourced consistent with your expectations.

Podcast: Rob O’Byrne on Digital Transformation, Sustainability, and Diversification in Sourcing

Requis

There are much better planning and forecasting systems now. Sourcing has probably been the biggest thing over the last decade or two, coupled with that reduction in local manufacturing of course. There’s a huge swathe of companies that have shockingly poor forecasting accuracy.

5 Reasons Why Plant Managers Need Accurate Supply Chain Forecasting

ThroughPut

Supply chain forecasting is a great way to help manufacturers, operations managers and production planners make educated predictions about factors influencing warehouse operations. This includes production elements such as material sourcing, job allocation, transport logistics, production scheduling, inventory optimization and more. Accurate demand-supply forecasting can easily contribute to achieving the most optimum production scheduling on the factory floor.

Forecasting vs. Demand Planning

Supply Chain Action Blog

Often, the terms, “forecasting” and “demand planning”, are used interchangeably. . Forecasting is the process of mathematically predicting a future event. As a component of demand planning, forecasting is necessary, but not sufficient. This certainly involves both quantitative and qualitative forecasting. High volume, high variability will be difficult to forecast and may require a sophisticated approach to safety stock planning.

Sorting out Risk in FinTech Source Chains

NC State SCRC

But emerging technology is now beginning to create new ways to think about sourcing risk, which in the past has been a very manual, encumbered process. This has caused banks to look at the flow of activities in the “source chain”, which refers to the way that third parties use bank data for different opreations. Today, this end to end sourcing process has literally hundreds of different steps in the process. Let’s examine the source chain in more detail.

Importance of Supply Chain Forecasting for Plant Managers

ThroughPut

Supply chain forecasting is a great way to help manufacturers, operations managers and production planners make educated predictions about factors influencing warehouse operations. This includes production elements such as material sourcing, job allocation, transport logistics, production scheduling, inventory optimization and more. Accurate demand-supply forecasting can easily contribute to achieving the most optimum production scheduling on the factory floor.

By all means use forecasting time fences. And by all means violate your time fences.

Demand Solutions

A time fence is a defined period in which the forecast should not be changed. An item's forecasting time fence often mirrors the item's planning or sourcing lead time. If it takes two months from when an item is ordered to when it's received into inventory, there's logic in not changing the forecast within that two-month period, since a change to the forecast will have no impact on the item's availability.

The Dark Side of the Forecast: How to Conquer it

The Supply Chainer Report

Following China Chang’e-4 mission landing on the far side of the Moon , let’s talk about the role of Forecast in business and more specifically in the Supply Chain. Everyone needs a Forecast. Any enterprise is capable of having a Forecast. At the present time, just by using costless technology (R, Excel, Phyton …) almost everyone can create a Forecast from a bunch of time series (data collected in a period of time). Use a Baseline Forecast.

COVID-19: Implications on inventory planning, sourcing and procurement

EFT

Visibility is the centrepiece … not only in terms of where my inventory is, in which channel, and where to move it, but also in consumer demand, and how can I be ahead of that game and forecast the demand?” We need to look at alternative sources of procurement, of production, alternative factories, alternative countries. We need to take risks on forecasting like never, ever before. We need to take risks on forecasting like never, ever before,” espouses Paiva. “We

Andreas Gärtner of Nestlé on Forecasting: “Track the Mad Bulls!”

Supply Chain Movement

Forecasting product demand will never by 100% perfect but it is possible to reduce the error of judgment. Nestlé is revitalising its Demand Forecasting process in Europe, relying on analytics to predict the demand for low-volatile products. This is giving planners more time to forecast demand for promotions and the volatile products, the so-called Mad Bulls. Still the majority of our forecasting is judgmental and therefore subjective,” says Gärtner.

Demand Forecasting: The Unfair Competitive Advantage

Logility

” scenario: in many supply chain organizations, sub-SKU forecasting (the task of translating high-level forecasts into specific quantities by size, color, configuration, region, etc.) falls on the shoulders of the sourcing and supply functions, rather than the demand planners. Supply planners and sourcing groups have less exposure to the market demand yet are expected to fully understand what is going on. White Paper: Reaping the Rewards of Sub-SKU Forecasting.

RELEX’s forecasting approaches

RELEX Solutions

RELEX’s forecasting approaches. Technology has transformed forecasting, enabling us to process unfathomable quantities of data and draw conclusions with an unprecedented degree of accuracy. In this whitepaper we’ll take a look at the different forecasting approaches that can be used to achieve that accuracy in diverse situations. Nevertheless, in retail forecasting, one needs good foundations. This is bread and butter forecasting. Demand Forecastin

Update on Forecasting vs. Demand Planning

Supply Chain Action Blog

Often, the terms, “forecasting” and “demand planning”, are used interchangeably. . Forecasting is the process of mathematically predicting a future event. As a component of demand planning, forecasting is necessary, but not sufficient. This certainly involves both quantitative and qualitative forecasting. High volume, high variability will be difficult to forecast and may require a sophisticated approach to safety stock planning.

2019 Forecasting and Inventory Benchmark Study

Supply Chain Brain

What does best-in-class forecasting and inventory management look like? Now in its ninth year, E2open’s 2019 Forecasting and Inventory Benchmark Study is the most consistent, comprehensive and useful study of its kind. What’s more, the data from this study doesn’t come from surveys and questionnaires, it is sourced from real data from E2open’s diverse customer base.

Improving Forecast Accuracy Through Demand Sensing

Supply Chain @ MIT

Typically, these algorithms only have one or two sources of information (data sets) to derive the forecast for the next period. As the field of business forecasting develops, technological improvements allow companies to experiment with more advanced […]. Featured Innovation Strategy forecasting demand in healthcare products MIT Center Transportation & Logistics MIT SCM capstone research MIT Supply Chain Management master's program

Methods to Improve Demand Forecasting

Demand Solutions

Demand forecasting is one of the most important business activities. Poor demand forecasting leads to businesses making purchases of products that they can’t move, or buying too little product and being unable to meet customer demand, potentially putting their business at risk. However, many businesses don’t do demand forecasting very well. Use Statistical Demand Forecasting Methods. Statistical demand forecasting methods are purely quantitative.