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A New Decade: Give Science A Chance

Supply Chain Shaman

Orbit Chart for Henkel versus Consumer Non-Durable Industry for the Period of 2010-2019. The SAS forecasting system implemented in 2019 was not tested for model accuracy. An example for this client would be to use 2017 and 2018 history to forecast 2019. So, I asked the questions, “Is your data forecastable?

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Trying to Push Content Above the Noise

Supply Chain Shaman

The month of December was my longest writing respite since I started this blog in January 2010. We talk about the move from functional metrics to a balanced scorecard, but we don’t use a balanced scorecard as an objective function. We talk about complexity, but do not measure the impact on forecastability.

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2020 Requires Big Wings and Feet

Supply Chain Shaman

The budget is not sufficient and is often a detrimental input for supply chain forecasting. Why Is the Financial Forecast Not a Good Proxy for a Supply Chain Forecast? There are many reasons why the budget cannot be used as a supply chain forecast. The supply chain forecast is a rolling forecast.

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Supply Chain Diagnostic: A Four-Step Process

Supply Chain Shaman

In Figure 1, we show the aggregate trend of the chemical industry in an orbit chart format showing year-over-year results at the intersection of two metrics operating margin and inventory turns. In the period of 2010-2018, within the chemical industry, margins fluctuated, largely driven by the price of crude, but inventory turns plummeted.

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Getting Ready for 2017: Reflections on Telling Lies

Supply Chain Shaman

As I study research methods, and the market, I realize the lies I’ve spun for prior employers (Gartner and AMR Research) are untrue: The AMR Research Hierarchy of Supply Chain Metrics. This research, released in 2005, gives a compelling view of a metrics hierarchy. This does not mean I think forecasting is an unimportant process.

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How Can You Seize Opportunity If You Cannot Manage Risk?

Supply Chain Shaman

Companies with the lower score on the Index are driving faster rates of metrics improvement. Energizer and Unilever are driving the fastest rates of improvement and Clorox and P&G improvement rates are the slowest on the Metrics That Matter of Growth, Operating Margin, Inventory Turns, and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)).

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Lassoing S&OP

Supply Chain Shaman

Metrics Definition. The organization needs to be clear on the Metrics That Matter and the alignment of vertical silos’ metrics to the balanced portfolio. Forecasting hierarchies need to roll up to define business requirements, and inventory needs to be reported by form and function. Reporting Structure.

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