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In the fast-paced world of modern supply chains, traditional forecasting methods fall short. Probabilistic forecasting is revolutionizing demand forecasting, supply planning, and inventory optimization by significantly improving forecast accuracy and decision-making across distribution networks.
For example, if I improve the cost structure in transportation, procurement, manufacturing and sales independently, what decision support framework decides the right trade-offs? I observe that organizations are unclear on outcomes and the definition of supply chain excellence. Supply chain excellence should be about driving value.
In May 2025, one in seven home-purchase agreements fell through resulting in the cancellation of 56,000 purchase contracts. Each organization has multiple demand streams with different characteristics–forecastability, demand latency, and bias. Most companies forecast a single stream with a focus on error.
In my first classes, I taught the group how to speak the language of demand—forecastability, Forecast Value Added (FVA), backcasting, demand and market latency, and market drivers. The class discovers the current blackholes of the supply chain (direct procurement and contract manufacturing. Instead, we need to Jump. The So What?
In 2012, when I started Supply Chain Insights , I believed that I could revolutionize the purchase of supply chain planning solutions by initiating a rating and review process across trading partners. Buying supply chain planning software is hard. How are people buying software? Here I share how to challenge the status quo.
The essence of the question is resilience and the ability to forecast in a variable market reliably. This gets us to the question of what is the role of the forecast?` For most, forecasting is a conundrum full of potholes, politics, and bias. When he speaks of the supply chain, he means procurement. This is his world.
Today, supply chain excellence matters more than ever. I forecast that this interest will grow and the market is going to become more confusing. Until there are clear answers, business leaders should avoid buying software from companies with deep investments by venture capitalists. Kinaxis Purchase of Rubikloud.
When you look behind the scenes of a global business operation, procurement strategy and supply chain management are usually top priorities, though theyre not always working in sync. This blog explores procurement vs supply chain strategy and looks at how aligning the two leads to operational excellence.
From raw material procurement to final product sales, these supply chains’ ability to minimize inventory through product life cycle controls and facilitate prompt product supply is every bit as important as product differentiation strategies. The establishment of efficient global supply chains has become critical to competitiveness.
Given your expertise, I’d love to hear what alternatives you recommend for better demand forecasting and real-time visibility beyond what’s commonly adopted today.” I know that your primary focus is procurement. The issues are largely rooted in politics and the lack of clarity on supply chain excellence.
Definition: Financial forecasting is a projection of the company's future financial performance based on historical data, market research, and business needs. The forecasts act as a guide, which you can use to make strategic decisions on resource allocation and define clear, attainable goals.
Introduction Gardner, (1954) and Huntzinger, (2007) define Purchase price variance (PPV) as a metric used to measure the effectiveness of cost-saving efforts by calculating the difference between the planned cost (standard pricing) allocated for purchasing activities and the actual cost incurred.
Top 3 Procurement Technologies to Embrace in 2025 Staying ahead of key procurement technology and advancements is essential for CPOs who want to improve spend cost reduction, drive strategic value, and navigate the increasingly complex procurement landscape.
Experts from North Carolina State University and GEP conducted a survey on supply chain, procurement and IT leaders to determine their challenges and priorities, focusing on examining gaps in the supply chain. The study found that these leaders considered the largest gap to be between supply chain and procurement, citing it as a major issue.
JD Edwards EnterpriseOne: This platform specializes in discrete manufacturing , excelling in areas like shop floor control, quality management, and detailed product costing. It excels in project management, project accounting, regulatory compliance management, and other industry-specific requirements.
At the end of a long day of a strategy session on supply chain excellence with a client, I needed to fill up some time in an agenda. This large food manufacturer used a popular technology to forecast monthly using orders as an input. They had never been in the same room to discuss demand holistically from sales teams to procurement.
Millions of shoppers, like my Dad, are not going back to their old habits because there are now faster and more convenient ways for buying daily household needs. It excels on a union of E-Commerce mobile apps and last-mile delivery innovations. I have to forecast my avocado sales, including seasonal patterns and promotional effects.
similarly, over 95% of manufacturers invested and implemented supply chain planning, but their primary tool today is Excel. This technique has been very useful for retail store inventory and MRO where demand is lumpy, latent, and difficult to forecast. ” Does the Dog Hunt? Makes sense. And, then there is a discussion of data.
Initially, the output was published to procurement to design strategic buying strategies. Procurement became an island–isolated from the demand signal except for MRP. Procurement: Purchase price variance and procurement cost. Demand Planning: Forecast Value Added (FVA) and shifts in baseline demand.
Manufactures are continuously faced with the challenge of forecasting how much (raw material) to purchase and how much (finished goods) to produce. To manage this delicate balance of demand and supply, manufacturers often use statistical forecasting techniques to predict future demand by looking at historical sales data.
Understanding how your Procurement and Supply Chain KPIs are performing isn’t just a nice-to-have; it’s essential for survival and growth. Why You Need Visibility of Supply Chain and Procurement KPIs? Running procurement and supply chain without metrics is like driving blindfolded. Are materials arriving when needed?
Various strategic steps and procurement procedures are incurred to make informed decisions about inventory production. The 7 Stages of the Inventory Life Cycle Procurement Acquiring necessary goods and materials before starting a business is essential. Read More about How to Improve Forecasting Accuracy?
Today, their functionality has increased, and businesses are leveraging CRM systems for demand forecasting, buyer behavior analysis, and more intelligent inventory management. This real-time visibility translates into faster issue resolution, enhanced forecasting, and vendor coordination. Check out this course by Vera Rozanova!
At a time that marketplace offerings were super-hyped, I forecasted the doom of ten e-marketplace providers. In the height of the e-commerce craze, the marketplace offerings started with a focus on e-procurement. The widely-held view was that the e-procurement market would fuel the next generation of marketplace applications.
As an analyst in the supply chain market for 15 years, I have written many articles on best-of-breed technology companies purchased by a larger company. The initial software product release name was Real-Time Forecasting. DS replaced rules-based forecast consumption with better math (statistics and pattern recognition).
So should the purchasing process. . RFIs tend to work well for certain industries (like government) or for purchasing equipment and industrial assets, bu t t hey often fall short in helping supply chain teams select a new software vendor. There is valuable time and effort put in by both the supplier and the purchasing party.
I am a big believer in procurement getting involved as early as possible in new product development based on all the market knowledge available. The worst-case scenario is product engineering developing a new product, selecting a supplier and then telling procurement to get on with negotiation. Do you give suppliers accurate forecasts?
He is a board member of the Association for Manufacturing Excellence (AME) and a contributor to the Forbes Technology Council , Manufacturing Today, WardsAuto , Supply Chain Brain, Industry Today, Aerospace Manufacturing and Design, ASSEMBLY , and more. Richard previously founded and led Factory Logic, Inc. acquired by SAP).
With the global market expansion and deepening supply chain complexity, the roles of procurement leaders have evolved from tactical to strategic. Nowadays, procurement departments not only focus on the day-to-day buying operations but also search for the most efficient ways to go about them. From whom are we buying?
Supply chain efficiency is the cornerstone of success and involves the effective management of processes, resources, and technologies from procurement to production, transportation to warehousing. Let’s break down these key components: Procurement: This is where it all begins.
My definition of a network is the bi-directional information exchange of manufacturing, procurement, quality, and transportation signals across multiple tiers of trading partners in a many-to-many trading partner information exchange with minimal latency. Likewise, simplistic sensing of disruptions, to improve resilience is not a network.
Forecastability. Today, due to the increase in the long tail of the supply chain and changing customer dynamics, less than 50% of items are forecastable at an item level. The only products that can be efficiently outsourced with long lead times are in the “forecastable” column. Let me explain. Not so today.
The focus is on the role of supply chain finance in driving supply chain excellence. The design of the conference includes tours of several modern warehouses and centers of excellence. The budget is not sufficient and is often a detrimental input for supply chain forecasting. The supply chain forecast is a rolling forecast.
Using POS Data for Improved Sales & Demand Planning By leveraging POS data, companies can additionally (and accurately) forecast future sales, which is crucial for demand planning. Improved Forecast Accuracy Since POS data reflects real consumer purchases, forecasts based on this data are more accurate.
Tight coupling of the supply chain forecast to the financial forecast will improve value. Demand latency is two-eight weeks delayed from consumption purchase to translate to an order. Even when I proved that the process was degrading the forecast by 35-60%, companies still clung to a wrong number. Don’t believe me?
This makes demand patterns difficult to forecast, particularly for non-essential goods. Here are key strategies businesses can implement: Improve Demand Forecasting and Planning for Uncertainty Accurate demand prediction becomes significantly more challenging yet critically important during economic uncertainty.
Within this setup, an ERP procurement module helps companies make purchases and manage suppliers. Numbers speak louder: According to Procurement Tactics’ top procurement trends in 2025 , 83% of CPOs prioritize digitization. Keep reading to learn: What Is ERP in Procurement?
Planting the Seeds of Resilience Most companies understand that accurate forecasts are critical to minimizing inventory, maximizing production efficiency, streamlining purchasing, optimizing distribution, minimizing waste, and projecting future performance confidently.
Research from APQC’s Open Standards Benchmarking in procurement shows that organizations without formal SRM programs report 121 percent longer supplier lead times. This causes a misalignment of actions, such as suppliers not making the right item at the right time due to forecast inaccuracy. These are three examples: Rule 3.1:
Concurrent macro forces–material shortages, war, shifts in consumer buying patterns, logistics constraints, inflation/recession, and climate change– are reshaping today’s reality necessitating the need for a supply chain reset button. Supply chain excellence happens when leaders manage complex non-linear flows.
The chief procurement officer (CPO) is a senior executive responsible for developing and implementing their organization’s procurement policies, procedures, and strategies. Making sure these purchases are of high quality and compliant with relevant laws and regulations also falls under the CPO’s responsibilities.
In groups of 5, each team member is given a different role: Finance, Sales, Marketing, Production, and Procurement. The beer game requires purchasing, manufacturing, and distribution quantities to be set with no communication amongst the people assigned to the functions, aside from an order quantity. Screenshot of SCI IMPACT!
In addition, poor visibility, unpredictable demand, and disjointed systems worsen the situation further and lead to inefficient procurement, misplaced stock, and emergency orders. In asset-intensive industries, this challenge has only intensified with the growing complexity across supply chains.
To stay ahead of the curve, industry leaders are turning to data-driven strategies and artificial intelligence (AI) to transform how they manage inventory, forecast demand, and optimize the entire spare parts lifecycle. This lack of transparency hampers accurate demand forecasting, procurement efficiency, and inventory optimization.
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