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In the fast-paced world of modern supply chains, traditional forecasting methods fall short. Probabilistic forecasting is revolutionizing demand forecasting, supply planning, and inventory optimization by significantly improving forecast accuracy and decision-making across distribution networks.
To build an outside-in model, and use new forms of analytics, we must start the discussion with the question of, “what drives value?” ” Traditional planning models optimize functional processes to improve cost and customer service. You are right. Or the use of AI to improve supply chain planning.
In follow-up qualitative interviews, one of the largest issues with organizational alignment was metric definition and a clear definition of supply chain excellence. To manage continuous improvement, companies need a clear definition of excellence and organizational alignment to that goal. What Drives Value?
When it comes to running a company, when things break down executives have traditionally said “we need to improve our forecasting!” Would better forecasting accuracy be a good thing? Unfortunately, most companies cannot, and will never be able to, consistently rely on highly accurate forecasts. Absolutely!
In May 2025, one in seven home-purchase agreements fell through resulting in the cancellation of 56,000 purchase contracts. Each organization has multiple demand streams with different characteristics–forecastability, demand latency, and bias. Most companies forecast a single stream with a focus on error.
Introduction Gardner, (1954) and Huntzinger, (2007) define Purchase price variance (PPV) as a metric used to measure the effectiveness of cost-saving efforts by calculating the difference between the planned cost (standard pricing) allocated for purchasing activities and the actual cost incurred.
Next Steps: Start to model demand based on market data to align the organization on baseline demand. Resist the temptation to place deeper analytics on top of existing data models. Instead, rethink the model and the approach. Out of desperation, they turned to the use of descriptive analytics. Next Steps.
Today, supply chain excellence matters more than ever. I forecast that this interest will grow and the market is going to become more confusing. Until there are clear answers, business leaders should avoid buying software from companies with deep investments by venture capitalists. Kinaxis Purchase of Rubikloud.
Demand forecasting plays a crucial role in business success, as it helps predict customer demand and plan inventory effectively. However, traditional forecasting methods often fall short in accuracy. With the advent of artificial intelligence, demand forecasting has undergone a significant transformation.”
Expand the “FLOW” program for logistics information sharing to forecast transportation flow. If businesses cannot accurately forecast revenue, the organization is not resilient. My answer is why are we spending so much money in technology and human capital to degrade the forecast with an exponential impact on inventory.
Given your expertise, I’d love to hear what alternatives you recommend for better demand forecasting and real-time visibility beyond what’s commonly adopted today.” I know that your primary focus is procurement. The issues are largely rooted in politics and the lack of clarity on supply chain excellence.
At a time that marketplace offerings were super-hyped, I forecasted the doom of ten e-marketplace providers. In the height of the e-commerce craze, the marketplace offerings started with a focus on e-procurement. The widely-held view was that the e-procurement market would fuel the next generation of marketplace applications.
Each executive has a different perspective on the definition of supply chain excellence, but they are never discussed and aligned. His organization purchased an advanced planning technology from well-known best of breed provider, and the implementation should have been successful, but it was not. What Is The Ring of Fire?
Analytics and business intelligence (BI) are no longer optionaltheyre essential. They integrate, align, and activate data across the business to drive better, faster decisions unlike legacy reporting tools that can’t. Flexible Delivery Options Interactive dashboards, scheduled reports, alerts, mobile access, and more.
Consumers constantly change the mix preferences in purchases. Somedays, the focus is on steaks or ribs and the next on the purchase of ground or cubed meat. The organization is not clear on the role of the forecast. In discussions, the role of the forecast and the budget are intertwined without clarity.
Supply chain efficiency is the cornerstone of success and involves the effective management of processes, resources, and technologies from procurement to production, transportation to warehousing. In the automotive sector, manufacturers are simultaneously reducing inventory costs and delivery times.
Millions of shoppers, like my Dad, are not going back to their old habits because there are now faster and more convenient ways for buying daily household needs. It excels on a union of E-Commerce mobile apps and last-mile delivery innovations. I have to forecast my avocado sales, including seasonal patterns and promotional effects.
Forecasting projections is one of the toughest things to get right. Whether your brand is experiencing gradual sales or is in high-growth mode , we’ll walk you through some tips to improve your ability to forecast demand. Jump to section: What is demand forecasting? Jump to section: What is demand forecasting? Conclusion.
Experts from North Carolina State University and GEP conducted a survey on supply chain, procurement and IT leaders to determine their challenges and priorities, focusing on examining gaps in the supply chain. The study found that these leaders considered the largest gap to be between supply chain and procurement, citing it as a major issue.
Understanding how your Procurement and Supply Chain KPIs are performing isn’t just a nice-to-have; it’s essential for survival and growth. Is inventory bloating your costs? Why You Need Visibility of Supply Chain and Procurement KPIs? Running procurement and supply chain without metrics is like driving blindfolded.
When you look behind the scenes of a global business operation, procurement strategy and supply chain management are usually top priorities, though theyre not always working in sync. This blog explores procurement vs supply chain strategy and looks at how aligning the two leads to operational excellence.
Top 3 Procurement Technologies to Embrace in 2025 Staying ahead of key procurement technology and advancements is essential for CPOs who want to improve spend cost reduction, drive strategic value, and navigate the increasingly complex procurement landscape.
This is because most classical planning solutions lack the modeling capability and computing power to accommodate different data sources, large SKU count, and detailed constraints and contingencies to build an immediately executable plan. The planning process should be automated, repeatable, and not dependent on Excel-based manipulation.
With the global market expansion and deepening supply chain complexity, the roles of procurement leaders have evolved from tactical to strategic. Nowadays, procurement departments not only focus on the day-to-day buying operations but also search for the most efficient ways to go about them. From whom are we buying?
This means we need more agile, flexible, and scalable planning platforms to process and consolidate new data sources, drive insights using advanced analytics such as AI/ML to drive autonomous decisions, and expand collaboration within and outside our organizations. We need planning platforms to keep up with all the changes.
Definition: Financial forecasting is a projection of the company's future financial performance based on historical data, market research, and business needs. The forecasts act as a guide, which you can use to make strategic decisions on resource allocation and define clear, attainable goals.
Today, their functionality has increased, and businesses are leveraging CRM systems for demand forecasting, buyer behavior analysis, and more intelligent inventory management. This real-time visibility translates into faster issue resolution, enhanced forecasting, and vendor coordination. Check out this course by Vera Rozanova!
Manufactures are continuously faced with the challenge of forecasting how much (raw material) to purchase and how much (finished goods) to produce. To manage this delicate balance of demand and supply, manufacturers often use statistical forecasting techniques to predict future demand by looking at historical sales data.
How the digital twin concept drives benefit By using advanced analytics and machine learning algorithms, digital twins can provide real-time insights and recommendations to optimize operations, reduce costs, and increase productivity. Do they purchase a 3D warehouse simulation and modeling tool? come with any of them.
Various strategic steps and procurement procedures are incurred to make informed decisions about inventory production. The 7 Stages of the Inventory Life Cycle Procurement Acquiring necessary goods and materials before starting a business is essential. Read More about How to Improve Forecasting Accuracy?
Nick Lynch is the Global Excellence Manager at Shell Lubricants, a division of Shell Global. Completed in 2012, the ERP project forced the company to standardize organizational design, roles, and metrics. What can often look like compliance in APO could actually be numbers calculated in Excel and posted into the SAP system.
<Bear with me… > Here I share a nine-step process in an attempt to help companies unravel the process for buying supply chain planning software. They center on how to make a good decision in the purchase of supply chain planning solutions. Most have purchased software, but are dependent on Excel spreadsheets.
In the realm of efficient procurement management, understanding the various types of procurementreports becomes paramount. These reports serve as navigational tools, offering insights into different facets of the procurement process.
I wrote my first report on Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) while sitting on the floor in the Atlanta airport in 2005 when I was an AMR Research analyst. I wrote many reports on airport floors in those days–electrical plugs were just too scarce.) Sales and Operations Maturity Model from 2005-2008. Measure it.
As Raheel Hussain, Director of the Supply Chain Center of Excellence at Reynolds Consumer Products notes during a recent webinar , a level of synchronization is critical to systemically share information and cut down the constant offline back-and-forth (conversations) between different functions.
The consulting team pitches a theme–vision of supply chain best practices, big data analytics, or demand-driven value networks– to the executive team, and a new project is initiated. It was also the preference of the consulting partners because the projects were longer, more costly and better aligned with the consulting model.
I never republished the report, because not enough has changed to warrant it.) The report centers on the concept of moving from inside-out to outside-in technologies. The order latency is the time from purchase by the end consumer to the visibility of the order. This is a natural fit for narrow AI and new forms of analytics.
I am a big believer in procurement getting involved as early as possible in new product development based on all the market knowledge available. The worst-case scenario is product engineering developing a new product, selecting a supplier and then telling procurement to get on with negotiation. Do you give suppliers accurate forecasts?
Forecastability. Today, due to the increase in the long tail of the supply chain and changing customer dynamics, less than 50% of items are forecastable at an item level. The only products that can be efficiently outsourced with long lead times are in the “forecastable” column. Let me explain. Not so today.
Data-Driven Decision Making : Using analytics to continuously refine operations. Key Benefits and Business Impact Warehouse optimization offers significant advantages across multiple areas: Cost Reduction: Expect a decrease in operational expenses, lower labor costs, and reduced energy consumption.
The focus is on the role of supply chain finance in driving supply chain excellence. The design of the conference includes tours of several modern warehouses and centers of excellence. The budget is not sufficient and is often a detrimental input for supply chain forecasting. The financial budget is a cost-control mechanism.
If you are going to be excellent at ecommerce fulfillment, you need to have great perpetual inventory capabilities. Aggressively design and test products online and then bring the data into your forecasting tools to predict sales of new products by channel. The proliferation of the business models is exciting.
As an analyst in the supply chain market for 15 years, I have written many articles on best-of-breed technology companies purchased by a larger company. The initial software product release name was Real-Time Forecasting. DS replaced rules-based forecast consumption with better math (statistics and pattern recognition).
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