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Probabilistic Forecasting: The Future of Supply Chain Planning

ToolsGroup

However, this approach ignores real purchasing behavior, such as customers buying complete sets of four tires. Probabilistic demand forecasting, in contrast, provides a full probability distribution, revealing actual purchasing patterns and enabling inventory planners to align stock levels with demand realities.

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Don’t Confuse Excellence with Perfection

Talking Logistics

After a lot of back and forth discussion, and not really getting through to him, I finally said, “If perfection is your goal, then you’re always going to be disappointed,” especially in baseball, where failing 7 out of 10 times at the plate is considered excellent. Was Apple striving for perfection or excellence with those products?

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The State of Home Delivery: Plenty of Room for Improvement

Logistics Viewpoints

The results of the research are a good news, bad news story. On one hand, consumers expect to increase their online purchases post-pandemic. Consumers are planning to buy more, but only a fraction cite improved home delivery performance. Figure 1: Top Reasons for Increased Online Purchase and Home Delivery.

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Aligning Supply Chain Metrics to Improve Value

Supply Chain Shaman

When I started this research project, I was busy. One of my lessons learned in completing survey-based research over the past twelve years, is that projects are full of surprises. To manage continuous improvement, companies need a clear definition of excellence and organizational alignment to that goal. What Drives Value?

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Network Investment. Defining the ROI.

Supply Chain Shaman

In this research, 81% of brand owners and contract manufacturers primarily depend on communication through email and spreadsheets. In addition, a purchase order changes three-to-four times and there is a black hole (data is caught between email systems of trading partners for one-to-two days). PE Firm Buy-out and Consolidation.

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Uh-Oh! Insights On How P&G Failed And What This Means For You

Supply Chain Shaman

Supply chain excellence is easier to say than to explain. In this area of research, I find that companies are like dogs chasing cars. Keith led the work to move P&G from a regional to a global manufacturer opening up the Warsaw center of planning excellence and outsourcing IT to HP. The reason? Discontinued in 2011.

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Just Jump

Supply Chain Shaman

In the research, we find that deploying an outside-in model always beats an inside-out model, reducing process and data latency while improving the organization’s ability to make decisions at the speed of business. The shifts over the last decade are profound: Is the answer a Supply Chain Center of Excellence? Let me explain.