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Supply Chain Performance Declined In the Last Decade. The Question is Why?

Supply Chain Shaman

Yes, companies held more inventory (measured in days of inventory) in 2019 than at the start of the 2007 recession. Commercial and operating teams in manufacturing organizations greater than 5B$ in annual revenue were more aligned in 2007, at the beginning of the recession, than in 2020, the start of the pandemic. Alignment Barriers.

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Lifting The Gray Curtain

Supply Chain Shaman

Executing an event in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic is challenging. I also forecast dismal retail performance for the holidays. Let’s look at the past to forecast the future: Phase 1. We started the pandemic with twenty-one more days of inventory than we had in 2007. Lockdowns and Disbelief.

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What is Supply Chain Visibility and Why Isn’t It Enough?

Logistics Viewpoints

Because we call it a supply chain for a reason – each link is connected, so if you rattle one link, you rattle the entire chain, as Boeing famously discovered in 2007 when a bolts and screws shortage delayed their Dreamliner. But the opposite is not true – if you optimize one link, you have not optimized the entire supply chain.

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2020 Requires Big Wings and Feet

Supply Chain Shaman

The budget is not sufficient and is often a detrimental input for supply chain forecasting. Why Is the Financial Forecast Not a Good Proxy for a Supply Chain Forecast? There are many reasons why the budget cannot be used as a supply chain forecast. The supply chain forecast is a rolling forecast.

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Will the Downturn Signal an Upturn?

Supply Chain Shaman

As the markets plummet, it is time to remind ourselves that demand is not a forecast. Traditional forecasting approaches are not adequate in a time of market volatility. In the real world, companies operate with a Mean Absolute Forecast Error of 24-60%, and have a bias of 9-40%. I remember December 2007 like yesterday.

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Out of Africa

Supply Chain Shaman

At over 1,000 delegates, the conference is a large supply chain event. One of my favorite presentations at the event was by Francis Marabula, Executive head of Supply Chain, Safaricom, Kenya. Mobile penetration is forecasted to be 85% of the households in Afria by 2015. I spent this week at SAPICS in South Africa.

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Calibration and Sharpness: The Two Independent Aspects of Forecast Quality

BlueYonder

What Is a Good Forecast? Forecasts are like friends: Trust is the most important factor (you don’t ever want your friends to lie to you), but among your trustable friends, you prefer meeting those that tell you the most interesting stories. We want forecasts to be “good,” “accurate,” and “precise.” But what do we mean by that?